2022 United States Senate election in Washington
The 2022 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Incumbent Senator Patty Murray was first elected in 1992 with 54% of the vote to succeed retiring fellow Democrat Brock Adams; Murray most recently won re-election to a fifth term in 2016 with 59% of the vote.[1]
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   Murray: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Smiley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Washington |
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Because Washington has a blanket primary system, parties did not nominate their own candidates to run in the general election. Instead, every candidate appeared on the same ballot, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two candidates in the August 2 nonpartisan blanket primary then advanced to the general election. Murray received 52.2% of the primary vote and advanced to face Republican Tiffany Smiley.[2]
Although Washington has been a reliably blue state for over 30 years, many polls showed that Murray only had a narrow lead over Smiley, and some polls had Smiley within the margin of error. A couple of late polls had the two candidates tied; such polls caused most pundits to downgrade their forecast from "safe Democratic" to "likely Democratic", and Republicans believed that Smiley had a chance of pulling off an upset.[3] Despite the predictions of a close race, Murray defeated Smiley and won re-election to a sixth term by a 14.5-point margin. Although this was a significantly larger margin of victory for Murray than what was expected, it was fairly consistent with Washington's partisan lean.[4] Smiley conceded the following day. Despite her loss, she made significant gains in several counties, particularly in the Southwestern and Eastern parts of the state.[5]
Following the election, Murray was elected president pro tempore for the 118th Congress, becoming the first woman to hold the role.[6]
Primary election
Advanced to general
- Patty Murray, incumbent U.S. Senator and Assistant Democratic Leader[1][7]
Eliminated in primary
Eliminated in primary
- Thor Amundson (independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018 and governor in 2020[7]
- Jon Butler (No party preference)[7]
- Henry Clay Dennison (Socialist Workers), perennial candidate[7]
- Dan Phan Doan (No party preference)[7]
- Martin D. Hash (No party preference)[7]
- Chuck Jackson (independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and 2016[7]
- Leon Lawson (Trump Republican), candidate for governor in 2020[7]
- Naz Paul (independent), real estate developer[7]
- Dave Saulibio (JFK Republican), U.S. Army veteran, candidate for Washington's 5th congressional district in 2018 and Washington's 8th congressional district in 2020[7]
Endorsements
Patty Murray (D)
- Organizations
- Council for a Livable World[9]
- EMILY's List[10]
- End Citizens United[11]
- Feminist Majority PAC[12]
- Giffords[13]
- Jewish Dems[14]
- King County Democratic Party[15]
- League of Conservation Voters[16]
- Let America Vote[11]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[17]
- National Women's Political Caucus[18]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[19]
- Population Connection Action Fund[20]
- Sierra Club[21]
- Women's Political Committee[22]
- Labor unions
- Newspapers
Tiffany Smiley (R)
- Executive Branch officials
- Nikki Haley, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and former Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[27]
- U.S. Senators
- Joni Ernst, U.S. Senator from Iowa (2015–present)[28]
- Rick Scott, U.S Senator from Florida (2019–present) and former Governor of Florida (2011–2019)[29]
- U.S. Representatives
- Elise Stefanik, U.S. Representative from New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present)[30]
- Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U.S. Representative from Washington's 5th congressional district (2005–present)[31]
- Doc Hastings, former U.S. Representative from Washington's 4th congressional district (1995–2015)[32]
- Individuals
- John Stockton, former NBA player[33]
- Organizations
- Benton County Republican Party[34]
- King County Republican Party[35]
- Stand for America PAC[36]
- Washington State Republican Party[37]
- Winning For Women PAC[38]
Results
Blanket primary results by county
Murray
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Smiley
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patty Murray (incumbent) | 1,002,811 | 52.22% | |
| Republican | Tiffany Smiley | 646,917 | 33.69% | |
| Trump Republican | Leon Lawson | 59,134 | 3.08% | |
| Republican | John Guenther | 55,426 | 2.89% | |
| Democratic | Ravin Pierre | 22,172 | 1.15% | |
| JFK Republican | Dave Saulibio | 19,341 | 1.01% | |
| Independent | Naz Paul | 18,858 | 0.98% | |
| Republican | Bill Hirt | 15,276 | 0.80% | |
| Democratic | Mohammad Hassan Said | 13,995 | 0.73% | |
| Socialist Workers | Henry Clay Dennison | 13,901 | 0.72% | |
| Democratic | Dr Pano Churchill | 11,859 | 0.62% | |
| Democratic | Bryan Solstin | 9,627 | 0.50% | |
| Independent | Charlie (Chuck) Jackson | 8,604 | 0.45% | |
| Independent | Jon Butler | 5,413 | 0.28% | |
| Independent | Thor Amundson | 5,133 | 0.27% | |
| No party preference | Martin D. Hash | 4,725 | 0.25% | |
| No party preference | Dan Phan Doan | 3,049 | 0.16% | |
| Democratic | Sam Cusmir | 2,688 | 0.14% | |
| Write-in | 1,511 | 0.08% | ||
| Total votes | 1,920,440 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Debates
Two debates were held, the first on October 23 at Gonzaga University.[40] The second was town hall-style forum on October 30 in the KIRO-TV studio in Seattle.[41]
Murray's campaign declined an invitation to a scheduled debate on October 25 at Seattle University.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[42] | Likely D | October 18, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[43] | Likely D | July 1, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[44] | Likely D | October 19, 2022 |
| Politico[45] | Lean D | November 3, 2022 |
| RCP[46] | Tossup | October 30, 2022 |
| Fox News[47] | Likely D | November 1, 2022 |
| DDHQ[48] | Likely D | September 12, 2022 |
| 538[49] | Likely D | October 19, 2022 |
| The Economist[50] | Likely D | September 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
Patty Murray (D)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (2021–present), and former U.S. Senator from California (2017–2021)[51]
- Organizations
- Council for a Livable World[52]
- EMILY's List[53]
- End Citizens United[11]
- Feminist Majority PAC[54]
- Giffords[55]
- Jewish Dems[56]
- King County Democratic Party[57]
- League of Conservation Voters[58]
- Let America Vote[11]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[59]
- National Women's Political Caucus[60]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[61]
- Population Connection Action Fund[62]
- Sierra Club[63]
- Women's Political Committee[64]
- Labor unions
- National Education Association[65]
- Service Employees International Union Local 775[66]
- Washington AFL–CIO[24]
- Newspapers
Tiffany Smiley (R)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and former Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[70]
- U.S. Senators
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Senator from Tennessee (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from Tennessee's 7th congressional district (2003–2019)[71][72]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present) and former U.S. Representative from Arkansas's 4th congressional district (2013–2015)[73][74]
- Joni Ernst, U.S. Senator from Iowa (2015–present)[75]
- Rick Scott, U.S Senator from Florida (2019–present) and former Governor of Florida (2011–2019)[76]
- Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present)[77]
- Steve Daines U.S. Senator from Montana
- Governors
- Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota (2019–present), and former U.S. Representative from South Dakota's at-large congressional district (2011–2019)[78]
- Larry Hogan, 62nd Governor of Maryland (2015–2023)[79]
- U.S. Representatives
- Elise Stefanik, U.S. Representative from New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present)[80]
- Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U.S. Representative from Washington's 5th congressional district (2005–present)[81]
- Doc Hastings, former U.S. Representative from Washington's 4th congressional district (1995–2015)[82]
- Individuals
- John Stockton, former NBA player[83]
- Organizations
- Log Cabin Republicans[84]
- Benton County Republican Party[85]
- Stand for America PAC[86]
- Washington State Republican Party[87]
- Winning For Women PAC[88]
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Patty Murray (D) |
Tiffany Smiley (R) |
Undecided [lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | October 14 – October 31, 2022 | November 3, 2022 | 49.3% | 46.3% | 4.4% | Murray +3.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight | May 25, 2021 – November 8, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 49.6% | 44.9% | 6.5% | Murray +4.7 |
| 270ToWin | October 21 – November 1, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 49.5% | 44.5% | 6.0% | Murray +4.3 |
| Average | 49.5% | 45.2% | 5.3% | Murray +4.3 | ||
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
Tiffany Smiley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 1] | November 3–5, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[upper-alpha 2] | October 31, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 25–28, 2022 | 1,207 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 48% | – | 2% |
| Triton Polling & Research[upper-alpha 3] | October 26–27, 2022 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 45% | – | 4% |
| Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 1] | October 20–22, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
| KAConsulting (R)[upper-alpha 4] | October 20–22, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 42% | 4%[lower-alpha 3] | 6% |
| co/efficient (R) | October 19–20, 2022 | 1,181 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] | October 19–20, 2022 | 782 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
| SurveyUSA | October 14–19, 2022 | 589 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| Civiqs | October 15–18, 2022 | 698 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 55% | 41% | 3%[lower-alpha 4] | 2% |
| Emerson College | September 29 – October 1, 2022 | 782 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 42% | – | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | September 27–28, 2022 | 770 (V) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 40% | – | 8% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 6] | September 20–27, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 5%[lower-alpha 5] | 6% |
| Strategies 360 | September 22–25, 2022 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 36% | – | 14% |
| 370 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 52% | 40% | – | 8% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 21–24, 2022 | 1,091 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 47% | – | 5% |
| Elway Research | September 12–15, 2022 | 403 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | – | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | September 6–7, 2022 | 620 (V) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
| Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 1] | September 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 30 – September 1, 2022 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | August 15–17, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
| Elway Research | July 7–11, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 53% | 33% | – | 15% |
| SurveyUSA | July 6–10, 2022 | 596 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 51% | 33% | – | 16% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 7] | June 14–19, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | – | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] | June 1–2, 2022 | 1,039 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 40% | – | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] | February 17–18, 2022 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 41% | – | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] | November 10–11, 2021 | 909 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 37% | – | 13% |
| SurveyUSA | October 25–28, 2021 | 542 (RV) | ± 5.2% | 49% | 31% | – | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] | May 25–26, 2021 | 992 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 53% | 37% | – | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
- Patty Murray vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elway Research | December 26–28, 2021 | 400 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
- Patty Murray vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | August 15–17, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patty Murray (incumbent) | 1,741,827 | 57.15% | -1.68% | |
| Republican | Tiffany Smiley | 1,299,322 | 42.63% | +1.77% | |
| Write-in | 6,751 | 0.22% | -0.09% | ||
| Total votes | 3,047,900 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Results by county
| County | Patty Murray
Democratic |
Tiffany Smiley
Republican |
Write-In | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | # | % | # | % | # | ||
| Adams | 23.46% | 969 | 76.25% | 3,150 | 0.29% | 12 | 4,131 |
| Asotin | 35.27% | 3,181 | 64.58% | 5,824 | 0.14% | 13 | 9,018 |
| Benton | 33.68% | 25,513 | 66.15% | 50,108 | 0.17% | 128 | 75,749 |
| Chelan | 41.94% | 14,373 | 57.87% | 19,833 | 0.20% | 67 | 34,273 |
| Clallam | 51.60% | 20,784 | 48.17% | 19,401 | 0.23% | 94 | 40,279 |
| Clark | 51.09% | 105,058 | 48.76% | 100,260 | 0.14% | 298 | 205,616 |
| Columbia | 27.17% | 592 | 72.28% | 1,575 | 0.55% | 12 | 2,179 |
| Cowlitz | 38.80% | 17,439 | 61.07% | 27,446 | 0.13% | 57 | 44,942 |
| Douglas | 32.73% | 5,275 | 67.05% | 10,086 | 0.22% | 36 | 16,117 |
| Ferry | 31.04% | 1,060 | 68.76% | 2,348 | 0.20% | 7 | 3,415 |
| Franklin | 31.61% | 7,022 | 68.31% | 15,174 | 0.08% | 18 | 22,214 |
| Garfield | 23.85% | 307 | 75.91% | 977 | 0.23% | 3 | 1,287 |
| Grant | 26.83% | 7,221 | 73.03% | 19,655 | 0.13% | 36 | 26,912 |
| Grays Harbor | 46.26% | 13,600 | 53.46% | 15,718 | 0.28% | 81 | 29,399 |
| Island | 55.00% | 23,680 | 44.77% | 19,275 | 0.24% | 102 | 43,057 |
| Jefferson | 70.62% | 14,970 | 29.18% | 6,185 | 0.21% | 44 | 21,199 |
| King | 75.05% | 668,692 | 24.73% | 220,307 | 0.22% | 1,943 | 890,942 |
| Kitsap | 57.51% | 70,939 | 42.26% | 52,134 | 0.23% | 276 | 123,351 |
| Kittitas | 39.99% | 8,318 | 59.84% | 12,446 | 0.16% | 34 | 20,798 |
| Klickitat | 41.89% | 4,798 | 57.96% | 6,639 | 0.16% | 18 | 11,455 |
| Lewis | 31.29% | 11,263 | 68.50% | 24,654 | 0.21% | 75 | 35,992 |
| Lincoln | 23.12% | 1,423 | 76.63% | 4,716 | 0.24% | 15 | 6,154 |
| Mason | 46.74% | 13,777 | 52.97% | 15,612 | 0.29% | 86 | 29,475 |
| Okanogan | 40.01% | 6,644 | 59.78% | 9,926 | 0.20% | 34 | 16,605 |
| Pacific | 48.32% | 5,771 | 51.39% | 6,137 | 0.29% | 35 | 11,943 |
| Pend Oreille | 29.94% | 2,032 | 69.82% | 4,739 | 0.24% | 16 | 6,787 |
| Pierce | 52.69% | 175,164 | 47.02% | 156,331 | 0.29% | 959 | 332,454 |
| San Juan | 72.88% | 8,254 | 26.97% | 3,055 | 0.15% | 17 | 11,326 |
| Skagit | 51.57% | 29,316 | 48.19% | 27,394 | 0.24% | 139 | 56,849 |
| Skamania | 42.07% | 2,620 | 57.80% | 3,599 | 0.13% | 8 | 6,227 |
| Snohomish | 57.52% | 184,430 | 42.21% | 135,339 | 0.27% | 864 | 320,633 |
| Spokane | 45.46% | 100,719 | 54.34% | 120,369 | 0.20% | 443 | 221,531 |
| Stevens | 26.50% | 6,073 | 73.31% | 16,803 | 0.19% | 43 | 22,919 |
| Thurston | 58.04% | 73,189 | 41.69% | 52,570 | 0.28% | 347 | 126,106 |
| Wahkiakum | 39.26% | 1,007 | 60.47% | 1,551 | 0.27% | 7 | 2,565 |
| Walla Walla | 41.38% | 10,039 | 58.50% | 14,192 | 0.12% | 29 | 24,260 |
| Whatcom | 59.32% | 65,950 | 40.51% | 45,038 | 0.16% | 182 | 111,170 |
| Whitman | 49.81% | 7,824 | 49.96% | 7,848 | 0.22% | 35 | 15,707 |
| Yakima | 35.86% | 22,541 | 63.93% | 40,188 | 0.22% | 136 | 62,865 |
| Total | 57.15% | 1,741,827 | 42.63% | 1,299,322 | 0.22 | 6,751 | 3,047,900 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Murray won 7 of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining 3 going to Smiley, including one that elected a Democrat.[90]
| District | Murray | Smiley | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 62% | 37% | Suzan DelBene |
| 2nd | 59% | 41% | Rick Larsen |
| 3rd | 46% | 54% | Jaime Herrera Beutler (117th Congress) |
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (118th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 34% | 66% | Dan Newhouse |
| 5th | 42% | 58% | Cathy McMorris Rodgers |
| 6th | 57% | 43% | Derek Kilmer |
| 7th | 87% | 13% | Pramila Jayapal |
| 8th | 51% | 49% | Kim Schrier |
| 9th | 71% | 29% | Adam Smith |
| 10th | 57% | 43% | Marilyn Strickland |
See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Other/Refused" with 4%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Someone else" with 5%
- Partisan clients
- Poll conducted for the NRSC and the Evergreen Principles PAC, which supports Smiley.
- This poll was sponsored by American Greatness, a conservative news outlet
- Poll conducted for KHQ-TV.
- Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
- This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
- This poll was sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund
- This poll was sponsored by Smiley's campaign
References
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