2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
The 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election occurred on November 8, 2022, to elect the next governor of Arizona concurrently with other federal and state elections. Incumbent Republican governor Doug Ducey was term-limited and ineligible to run for a third consecutive term. Democratic Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs narrowly defeated Republican former television anchor Kari Lake for the governorship.[2]
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| Turnout | 62.6%  2.29pp[1] | ||||||||||||||||
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   Hobbs: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Lake: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No data Tie: 40–50% 50% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Arizona |
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Primaries were held on August 2 for both parties, with Lake winning the Republican nomination and Hobbs winning the Democratic nomination, making this the first gubernatorial election in Arizona history in which both major party candidates for governor were women. Hobbs became the fifth female governor of Arizona, with Arizona setting a record for the most female governors in American history.[3][4] With the concurrent passage of Proposition 131, this was the last gubernatorial election in Arizona without a lieutenant governor on the ticket.[5]
Going into the election, most polling had Lake leading and analysts generally considered the race to either be a tossup or leaning towards the Republican. Nonetheless, Hobbs ultimately defeated Lake with 50.32% of the vote, becoming the first Democrat elected governor of Arizona since Janet Napolitano in 2006. This was the first gubernatorial election in the state since 2002 that the margin of victory was not double digits. Lake refused to concede and filed a post-election lawsuit in an attempt to overturn the results. Most of her lawsuit was rejected by all three levels of Arizona's state courts, with the remaining part dismissed at trial in May 2023.[10]
This race was one of six Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election. With a margin of 0.67%, it was the closest election in the state since the 1990–91 gubernatorial election and of the 2022 gubernatorial election cycle. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Hobbs won independent voters by 6–7 percentage points, which contributed to Lake's defeat.[11]
Republican primary
Candidates
Eliminated in primary
- Scott Neely, businessman[13]
- Karrin Taylor Robson, land developer and member of the Arizona Board of Regents[14]
- Paola Tulliani-Zen, businesswoman[15]
Withdrew
- Steve Gaynor, businessman and nominee for Arizona Secretary of State in 2018[16]
- Matt Salmon, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 1st congressional district and nominee for governor in 2002 (endorsed Robson)[17]
- Kimberly Yee, Arizona State Treasurer (running for re-election)[18]
Declined
- Kirk Adams, former Chief of Staff to Governor Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives[19]
- Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district (endorsed Salmon)[20][21]
- Mark Brnovich, Arizona Attorney General (ran for the U.S. Senate)[22]
- Steve Chucri, Maricopa County supervisor[23]
- David Schweikert, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district (endorsed Salmon)[24]
- Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[20]
Endorsements
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[25]
- State legislators
- Wendy Rogers, member of the Arizona Senate from the 6th district (2021–2023)[26]
- Individuals
- Rob Schneider, comedian and actor[27]
- Mike Lindell, founder of My Pillow[28]
- Peter Thiel, entrepreneur and venture capitalist[29]
- Organizations
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States (2017–2021)[31]
- U.S. Representatives
- Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995–1999) and former U.S. Representative for Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–1999)[32]
- Governors
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)[33]
- Brad Little, Governor of Idaho (2019–present).[34]
- Fife Symington, former Governor of Arizona (1990–1997)[35]
- Jan Brewer, former Governor of Arizona (2009–2015)[36]
- State officials
- Lea Marquez Peterson, Chair of the Arizona Corporation Commission (2019–present)[37]
- Individuals
- Stephen Moore, conservative writer and economist[38]
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kari Lake |
Karrin Taylor Robson |
Undecided [lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | July 27 – August 1, 2022 | August 2, 2022 | 47.8% | 38.5% | 13.7% | Lake +9.3 |
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Steve Gaynor |
Kari Lake |
Karrin Taylor Robson |
Matt Salmon |
Kimberly Yee |
Other | Undecided | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 30 – August 1, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 2.9% | – | 49% | 38% | 3% | – | 4%[lower-alpha 3] | 6% | ||||||||
| Emerson College | July 28–30, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | – | 46% | 47% | – | – | 3%[lower-alpha 4] | 4% | ||||||||
| Rasmussen Reports | July 27–28, 2022 | 710 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 43% | 34% | – | – | 12%[lower-alpha 5] | 11% | ||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | July 27, 2022 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 51% | 33% | 2% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 6] | 12% | ||||||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 25–27, 2022 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 2.9% | – | 48% | 39% | 2% | – | 4%[lower-alpha 7] | 7% | ||||||||
| Alloy Analytics (R) | July 24–26, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 45% | 35% | 2% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 6] | 15% | ||||||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 1] | July 22–24, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | – | 43% | 43% | – | – | – | 14% | ||||||||
| Data Orbital (R) | July 18–20, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | – | 44% | 32% | 5% | – | 4%[lower-alpha 3] | 15% | ||||||||
| Cygnal (R) | July 12–13, 2022 | 419 (LV) | ± 4.8% | – | 45% | 34% | 3% | – | 4%[lower-alpha 3] | 14% | ||||||||
| Data Orbital (R) | July 5–7, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | – | 39% | 35% | 2% | – | 6%[lower-alpha 8] | 19% | ||||||||
| HighGround Public Affairs (R) | July 2–7, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | – | 39% | 35% | – | – | 4% | 21% | ||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | June 30 – July 2, 2022 | 515 (LV) | ± 4.3% | – | 39% | 31% | 6% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 6] | 21% | ||||||||
| – | 40% | 35% | – | – | 5%[lower-alpha 8] | 21% | ||||||||||||
| Salmon withdraws from the race and endorses Robson | ||||||||||||||||||
| Data Orbital (R) | June 24–26, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | – | 33% | 24% | 7% | – | 4%[lower-alpha 3] | 33% | ||||||||
| Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 2] | June 22–23, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | – | 37% | 38% | – | – | 11% | 14% | ||||||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | June 14–16, 2022 | 1,068 (LV) | ± 2.9% | – | 39% | 27% | 15% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 4] | 17% | ||||||||
| Data Orbital (R) | June 1–3, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | – | 27% | 23% | 12% | – | 4%[lower-alpha 9] | 31% | ||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | May 9–16, 2022 | 281 (LV) | ± 5.9% | – | 23% | 21% | 14% | – | 4% | 38% | ||||||||
| Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 3] | April 28–30, 2022 | – (LV) | – | – | 47% | 22% | 7% | – | 5%[lower-alpha 10] | 19% | ||||||||
| Gaynor withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | April 25–28, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 6% | 38% | 27% | 11% | – | 4%[lower-alpha 3] | 14% | ||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | April 4–5, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 3% | 29% | 22% | 11% | – | – | 36% | ||||||||
| Data Orbital (R) | April 1–3, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 7% | 35% | 22% | 12% | – | – | 24% | ||||||||
| HighGround Public Affairs (R) | March 26–27, 2022 | 264 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 3% | 30% | 10% | 5% | – | 6% | 46% | ||||||||
| Alloy Analytics (R) | March 9–12, 2022 | 433 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 4% | 37% | 15% | 9% | – | – | 34% | ||||||||
| Data Orbital (R) | March 2022 | – (LV) | – | 4% | 43% | 13% | 15% | – | – | 26% | ||||||||
| Data Orbital (R) | February 11–13, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 8% | 37% | 9% | 13% | – | – | 34% | ||||||||
| Yee withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 302 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 5% | 21% | 6% | 17% | 5% | 1%[lower-alpha 11] | 46% | ||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 252 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 2% | 28% | 1% | 11% | 6% | 1%[lower-alpha 11] | 51% | ||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 311 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 5% | 25% | 1% | 9% | 6% | 2%[lower-alpha 12] | 53% | ||||||||
| HighGround Public Affairs (R) | May 3–5, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | – | 10% | 0% | 8% | 4% | 9%[lower-alpha 13] | 66% | ||||||||
- Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Matt Salmon
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Karrin Taylor Robson |
Matt Salmon |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 4] | May 12–13, 2021 | 534 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 10% | 42% | 48% |
Results
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kari Lake | 398,860 | 47.97% | |
| Republican | Karrin Taylor Robson | 358,662 | 43.13% | |
| Republican | Matt Salmon (withdrawn) | 30,704 | 3.69% | |
| Republican | Scott Neely | 25,876 | 3.11% | |
| Republican | Paola Tulliani-Zen | 17,281 | 2.08% | |
| Write-in | 105 | 0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 831,508 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
Eliminated in primary
- Marco López Jr., former Chief of Staff for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and former Mayor of Nogales[43]
Withdrawn
- Aaron Lieberman, former state representative for the 28th district[44][45]
Declined
- Charlene Fernandez, Minority Leader of the Arizona House of Representatives[40]
- Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix[46]
- Ruben Gallego, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 7th congressional district (running for re-election)[47]
- Tom O'Halleran, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 1st congressional district (running for re-election)[48]
- Greg Stanton, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 9th congressional district and former Mayor of Phoenix (running for re-election)[49]
Endorsements
- State Representatives
- State legislator
- Art Hamilton, state representative for the 22nd district (1973–1999)[51]
- Organization
Polling
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Katie Hobbs |
Aaron Lieberman |
Marco López Jr. |
Other | Undecided | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lieberman suspends his campaign | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | May 9–16, 2022 | 261 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 43% | 9% | 8% | – | 40% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GQR Research (D) | May 9–15, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 10% | 20% | 2% | 19% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HighGround Public Affairs (R) | March 26–27, 2022 | 234 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 27% | 1% | 9% | 3% | 57% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 274 (RV) | ± 5.9% | 46% | 5% | 9% | – | 39% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | 23% | 27% | – | 50% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 229 (RV) | ± 6.5% | 42% | 6% | 8% | – | 44% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 283 (RV) | ± 5.8% | 40% | 8% | 10% | – | 42% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Results
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Katie Hobbs | 431,059 | 72.32% | |
| Democratic | Marco A. López Jr. | 136,090 | 22.83% | |
| Democratic | Aaron Lieberman (withdrawn) | 28,878 | 4.85% | |
| Total votes | 596,027 | 100.0% | ||
Libertarian primary
Eliminated in primary
- Barry Hess, perennial candidate[lower-alpha 14][53]
Results
Write-in candidate Barry Hess was unopposed in the Libertarian primary, but failed to secure the minimum number of votes to receive the nomination.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Barry Hess (write-in) | 550 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 550 | 100.0% | ||
Certified write-in candidates
General election
Lake was criticized for her denial of Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election. She had made her closeness to former president Donald Trump central to her campaign.[55][56] Hobbs refused to debate Lake, which became a highly discussed issue of the campaign, earning criticism from Republicans.[57] On October 16, 2022, Lake twice refused to say that she will accept the result if she does not win the election: "I'm going to win the election, and I will accept that result."[58]
According to Politico, the race was considered a toss-up.[59] Lake called both the primaries and current round of elections "incompetent" and stated that "honest elections are needed" and that "the system we have right now does not work".[60]
Debates and forums
Katie Hobbs refused to debate Kari Lake, though one debate-like forum was held.[61]
| No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Participants | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Kari Lake | Katie Hobbs | |||||
| 1 | September 7, 2022 | Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry | Danny Seiden | YouTube | P | P |
| 2 | October 23, 2022 | Clean Elections | Mike Broomhead | YouTube | P | A |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[62] | Tossup | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[63] | Tossup | March 4, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[64] | Lean R | November 7, 2022 |
| Politico[65] | Tossup | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[66] | Tossup | January 10, 2022 |
| Fox News[67] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
| 538[68] | Lean R | October 26, 2022 |
| Elections Daily[69] | Lean R | November 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[25]
- Michael Flynn, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2017), former Director of the DIA (2012–2014) and retired U.S. Army lieutenant general[70][71]
- Kash Patel, former Chief of Staff to the Acting United States Secretary of Defense[72][71]
- Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[71]
- Peter Navarro, former Director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy (2017–2021)[71]
- Thomas Homan, former Director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (2017–2018)[71]
- U.S. Senators
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Senator from Tennessee (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative for Tennessee's 7th congressional district (2003–2019)[73][74][71]
- U.S. Representatives
- Paul Gosar, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district (2011–2023)[75][71]
- Andy Biggs, U.S Representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district (2017–present)[71]
- Tulsi Gabbard, former U.S. Representative for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district (2013–2021) (Independent, former Democrat)[76]
- Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–present)[71]
- Elise Stefanik, House Republican Conference Chair (2021–present) and U.S. Representative for New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present)[77]
- Governors
- Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present)[78]
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)[79]
- Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (2022–present)[80]
- State legislators
- Kelli Ward, chairwoman of the Arizona Republican Party and candidate for the US Senate in 2016 and in 2018
- John Fillmore, state representative from the 16th district (2019–present)[81][71]
- Wendy Rogers, state senator from the 6th district (2021–2023)[26]
- Nancy Barto, state senator from the 15th district (2021–present)[82][71]
- Joseph Chaplik, state representative from the 23rd district (2021–present)[83][71]
- Teresa Martinez, state representative from the 11th district (2021–present)[71]
- Sonny Borrelli, state senator from the 5th district (2017–present)[71]
- Russell Pearce, former state senator from the 18th district (2006–2011)[71]
- Warren Petersen, state senator from the 12th district (2021–present)[71]
- Travis Grantham, state representative from the 12th district (2021-present)[71]
- John Kavanagh, state representative from the 23rd district (2019-present)[71]
- Local officials
- Rudy Giuliani, 107th Mayor of New York City (1994–2001)[71]
- Joe Arpaio, 36th Sheriff of Maricopa County (1993–2017)[71]
- Individuals
- Jerry Colangelo, businessman and sports executive[84]
- Rob Schneider, comedian and actor[27]
- Mike Lindell, founder of My Pillow[28]
- Blake Masters, venture capitalist and Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2022[85]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former President Donald Trump[86][71]
- Larry Elder, talk radio host, author, politician, and attorney[87][71]
- Brandon Tatum, conservative political commentator[71]
- Kimberly Guilfoyle, television news personality and former advisor to Donald Trump[71]
- Dean Cain, actor, producer, television presenter and former professional football player[71]
- Dinesh D'Souza, political commentator, author and filmmaker[71]
- Peter Thiel, entrepreneur and venture capitalist[29]
- Charlie Kirk, founder and executive director of Turning Point USA[88]
- Robert Kiyosaki, businessman and author of Rich Dad Poor Dad[89]
- Karrin Taylor Robson, member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017-2021) and former 2022 gubernatorial candidate[90]
- Bernard Kerik, political commentator and former New York City Police Commissioner (2000-2001)[71]
- Jim Lamon, solar power businessman and former candidate for U.S. Senate in Arizona[71]
- Henry Cejudo, former mixed martial arts and freestyle wrestler, Olympic gold medalist[91]
- Abraham Hamadeh, prosecutor and Republican nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2022[85]
- Organizations
- Arizona Fraternal Order of Police[92][71]
- American Conservative Union[30]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[93][94]
- Association of American Physicians and Surgeons[95]
- National Federation of Independent Business[96]
- Phoenix Police Sergeants and Lieutenants Association[71]
- Arizona Conference of Police & Sheriffs[71]
- American Principles Project[71]
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States (2009–2017)[97]
- U.S. Senators
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Senator from Arizona (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 9th congressional district (2013–2019)[98]
- U.S. Representatives
- Liz Cheney, U.S. Representative for Wyoming's at-large congressional district (2017–2023) (Republican)[99]
- Adam Kinzinger, U.S. Representative for Illinois's 16th congressional district (2011–2023) (Republican)[100]
- Local officials
- Sam Campana, former Mayor of Scottsdale (Republican)[101]
- John Giles, Mayor of Mesa (2014–present) (Republican)[102]
- State legislators
- Lela Alston, former state senator from 24th district (2019–present)[103]
- Richard Andrade, state representative for 29th district (2015–present)[104]
- Sean Bowie, state senator from 18th district (2017–present)[103]
- Lupe Contreras, state senator from 19th district (2015–present)[103]
- Andrea Dalessandro, state representative for 2nd district (2021–present)[103]
- Kirsten Engel, former state senator from 10th district (2021)[103]
- Stephanie Stahl Hamilton, state representative for 10th district (2021–present)[103]
- Pamela Hannley, state representative for 9th district (2017–present)[103]
- Steve May, former state representative for 26th district (1997–2000) (Republican)[105]
- Jamescita Peshlakai, former state senator from 7th district (2017–2021)[103]
- Martín Quezada, state senator from 29th district (2015–present)[103]
- Victoria Steele, state senator from 9th district (2019–present)[103]
- Individuals
- Camila Cabello, singer[106]
- Kerry Washington, actress[107]
- Labor Unions
- AFL–CIO[108]
- Communications Workers of America[109]
- National Education Association[110]
- United Mine Workers of America[111]
- Organizations
- EMILY's List[112]
- Equality Arizona[113]
- Chicanos Por La Causa[114]
- National Women's Political Caucus[115]
- Human Rights Campaign[116]
- Planned Parenthood[117]
- MoveOn[118]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[119]
- End Citizens United[120]
- Let America Vote[120]
- Stonewall Democrats[121]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[121]
- Emerge America[121]
- Feminist Majority PAC[122]
- Fund Her PAC[121]
- Democrats Serve PAC[123]
- State officials
- Jan Brewer, former Governor of Arizona (2009–2015) (Republican)[124]
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kari Lake (R) |
Katie Hobbs (D) |
Undecided[lower-alpha 15] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | November 1–7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 50.8% | 47.3% | 1.9% | Lake +3.5 |
| FiveThirtyEight | October 17 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 49.5% | 47.1% | 3.4% | Lake +2.4 |
| 270ToWin | November 3–7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 48.9% | 46.9% | 4.2% | Lake +2.0 |
| Average | 49.7% | 47.1% | 3.2% | Lake +2.6 | ||
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Kari Lake (R) |
Katie Hobbs (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 5–7, 2022 | 1,094 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 47% | – | 3% |
| Data Orbital (R) | November 4–6, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 47% | 2%[lower-alpha 16] | 2% |
| Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
| Data for Progress (D) | November 2–6, 2022 | 1,359 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
| Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 48% | 2%[lower-alpha 17] | – |
| KAConsulting (R)[upper-alpha 5] | November 2–3, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 45% | 1% | 6% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | November 2, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 48% | – | 1% |
| HighGround Inc. | November 1–2, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 45% | 2%[lower-alpha 18] | 6% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | November 1–2, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
| Big Data Poll (R) | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,051 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 47% | – | 2% |
| Marist College | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 48% | 1%[lower-alpha 19] | 4% |
| 1,015 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 49% | 1%[lower-alpha 20] | 2% | ||
| Civiqs | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 852 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 48% | 1%[lower-alpha 21] | – |
| Alloy Analytics (R) | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 639 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 46% | – | 4% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 2%[lower-alpha 22] | 2% |
| 50% | 47% | 3%[lower-alpha 23] | – | ||||
| The Phillips Academy | October 29–30, 2022 | 985 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 53% | 42% | – | 4% |
| Fox News | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | 3%[lower-alpha 24] | 4% |
| Wick Insights (R) | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,122 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 47% | 2%[lower-alpha 25] | 2% |
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)[upper-alpha 4] | October 24–26, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 47% | – | – |
| OH Predictive Insights | October 24–26, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
| Siena College/NYT | October 24–26, 2022 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 48% | – | 4% |
| BSP Research/Shaw & Co.[upper-alpha 6] | October 19–26, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 40% | 3%[lower-alpha 26] | 14% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 24–25, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 54% | 43% | – | 2% |
| co/efficient (R) | October 20–21, 2022 | 1,111 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
| Data Orbital (R) | October 17–19, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 44% | 3%[lower-alpha 27] | 6% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[upper-alpha 7] | October 14–18, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | 2%[lower-alpha 28] | 3% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[upper-alpha 8] | October 16–17, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 46% | – | 4% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 11–17, 2022 | 893 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | – | 4% |
| Wick Insights (R) | October 8–14, 2022 | 1,058 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 47% | 2%[lower-alpha 29] | 3% |
| HighGround Inc.[upper-alpha 9] | October 12–13, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 46% | 2%[lower-alpha 30] | 7% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 11, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 46% | – | 4% |
| Ascend Action (R) | October 8–10, 2022 | 954 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 45% | 5%[lower-alpha 31] | 5% |
| Big Data Poll (R) | October 2–5, 2022 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 46% | 1%[lower-alpha 32] | 6% |
| YouGov/CBS News | September 30 – October 4, 2022 | 1,164 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 49% | – | 1% |
| CNN/SSRS | September 26 – October 2, 2022 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 49% | 7%[lower-alpha 33] | – |
| 795 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 49% | 5%[lower-alpha 34] | – | ||
| Fox News | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,008 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 44% | 6%[lower-alpha 35] | 7% |
| Suffolk University | September 21–25, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 46% | – | 8% |
| Marist College | September 19–22, 2022 | 1,260 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 45% | <1% | 8% |
| 1,076 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% | ||
| Data for Progress (D) | September 15–19, 2022 | 768 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 47% | – | 3% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 14–17, 2022 | 1,080 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 46% | – | 4% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | September 8–15, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 49% | – | 3% |
| Survey Monkey (D)[upper-alpha 10] | September 6–9, 2022 | 972 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 49% | – | 14% |
| 563 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 53% | – | 8% | ||
| Emerson College | September 6–7, 2022 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 46% | 2%[lower-alpha 36] | 6% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | September 6–7, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 44% | – | 13% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 773 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 50% | – | 10% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 24–27, 2022 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 46% | 3%[lower-alpha 37] | 5% |
| RMG Research | August 16–22, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 44% | – | 9% |
| Fox News | August 12–16, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 2% | 6% |
| American Viewpoint (R)[upper-alpha 11] | August 2022 | – (LV) | – | 46% | 47% | 3% | 4% |
| Beacon Research (D)[upper-alpha 12] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 43% | 2% | 12% |
| 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 49% | 3% | 7% | ||
| TargetSmart (D)[upper-alpha 13] | June 28–30, 2022 | 704 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 47% | 7% | 8% |
| GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 14] | May 9–15, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 50% | – | 4% |
| Data Orbital (R) | February 11–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 41% | – | 16% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 10, 2021 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 34% | 39% | 2% | 19% |
| 592 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 41% | 2% | 18% |
- Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Katie Hobbs
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Karrin Taylor Robson (R) |
Katie Hobbs (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research (D)[upper-alpha 12] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 37% | 42% | 4% | 13% |
| 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 48% | 5% | 7% | ||
| TargetSmart (D) Archived July 13, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 13] | June 28–30, 2022 | 704 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 39% | 44% | 10% | 7% |
| GQR Research (D) Archived May 26, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 14] | May 9–15, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 47% | – | 4% |
| Data Orbital (R) | February 11–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 42% | – | 21% |
- Matt Salmon vs. Katie Hobbs
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Matt Salmon (R) |
Katie Hobbs (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Orbital (R) | February 11–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 41% | – | 20% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 10, 2021 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 31% | 40% | 4% | 17% |
| 592 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 43% | 4% | 16% |
- Steve Gaynor vs. Katie Hobbs
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Steve Gaynor (R) |
Katie Hobbs (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Orbital (R) | February 11–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
- Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | March 7–15, 2022 | 753 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 37% | 25% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 855 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 35% | 26% |
| OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 713 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 36% | 25% |
| Data for Progress (D)[upper-alpha 15] | September 15–22, 2020 | 481 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Katie Hobbs | 1,287,891 | 50.32% | +8.48% | |
| Republican | Kari Lake | 1,270,774 | 49.65% | -6.35% | |
| Write-in | 820 | 0.03% | +0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 2,559,485 | 100.0% | |||
| Turnout | 2,592,313 | 62.56% | |||
| Registered electors | 4,143,929 | ||||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
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By congressional district
Hobbs won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[126]
| District | Hobbs | Lake | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 52% | 48% | David Schweikert |
| 2nd | 46% | 54% | Tom O'Halleran (117th Congress) |
| Eli Crane (118th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 76% | 24% | Ruben Gallego |
| 4th | 56% | 44% | Greg Stanton |
| 5th | 43% | 57% | Andy Biggs |
| 6th | 52% | 48% | Ann Kirkpatrick (117th Congress) |
| Juan Ciscomani (118th Congress) | |||
| 7th | 67% | 33% | Raúl Grijalva |
| 8th | 45% | 55% | Debbie Lesko |
| 9th | 36% | 64% | Paul Gosar |
Dispute over results
On November 17, Lake refused to concede defeat, and announced she was assembling a legal team to challenge the results.[127][128] Lake alleged voter disfranchisement due to ballot printing problems and long waiting lines in Maricopa County, which had elections run by local Republican officials Bill Gates and Stephen Richer.[127][129] In 70 out of 223 Maricopa County polling sites, voting machine ballots were printed too lightly to be read by tabulators; the problem was caused by a printer setting which had not shown widespread issues during prior testing.[127][130] If voters did not want to wait in line for the issue to be fixed, they could leave to vote at another Maricopa County polling site, with wait times for polling sites being shown online, and many polling sites had little to no waiting lines, stated Maricopa County election officials.[127][128][131] Alternatively, voters could drop their ballots into a secure box ("Box 3"), with these ballots being later tabulated at Maricopa County's elections headquarters, under monitoring from observers from both parties; ultimately, around 17,000 Maricopa County ballots were dropped into Box 3.[127][128][132]
Bill Gates, the Republican chair of Maricopa's Board of Supervisors, partially blamed the long lines on Arizona Republican Party chairwoman Kelli Ward for discouraging voters from using Box 3; she had claimed that Box 3 should not be used as "Maricopa County is not turning on their tabulators downtown today".[127][133] Lake herself told her supporters to stay in line to vote, while a lawyer for Lake's campaign assuaged concerns about using Box 3 to vote.[133] Lake's campaign filed a lawsuit on Election Day to extend voting for another three hours, but Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Tim Ryan declined to do so, stating: "The court doesn't have any evidence that any voter was precluded from their right to vote".[134]
While Lake alleged that Republican-dominated areas in Maricopa County were disproportionately affected by the printing problems, The Washington Post found that the percentage of registered Republicans in affected precincts (37%) was very close to the percentage of registered Republicans across Maricopa County (35%), and also found that some Democrat-dominated areas also faced the printing problems.[130][135] According to the Associated Press: "Democrats voted overwhelmingly via ballots received in the mail. In-person Election Day votes heavily favored the GOP because Lake and other prominent Republicans had claimed it was more secure, which election experts dispute."[127] Meanwhile, The New York Times analyzed 45 of the claims of irregularities reported by voters, finding that in 34 of these 45 claims, the voters were able to cast their vote despite an inconvenience; while for the others, three raised problems with voter registration; seven gave unclear accounts as to what exactly happened; and only one said she had been denied the opportunity to vote, though she acknowledged she had arrived at her polling place at the time it closed.[133]
Arizona's Assistant Attorney General Jennifer Wright demanded that Maricopa County explain the election problems, stating: "These complaints go beyond pure speculation, but include first-hand witness accounts that raise concerns regarding Maricopa's lawful compliance with Arizona election law".[136]
Delays in certification of voting results
14 of Arizona's 15 counties certified the voting results by the November 28, 2022 deadline; the exception was Cochise County.[137] Despite no evidence of irregularities with vote counting, Cochise County's Republican officials delayed their certification vote to December 2, 2022, to accommodate a hearing on the certification of voting machines.[138] Previously on November 21, Arizona's State Elections Director, Kori Lorick, had sent County officials confirmation that the county's voting machines had been certified by the United States Election Assistance Commission in an accredited laboratory.[139] However, the county's officials insisted on hearing more from those who had without evidence alleged that the voting machines were not properly certified.[140]
On November 29, Hobbs, as Secretary of State, sued the county for being unable to certify results by the deadline.[141]
On December 1, the Pima County Superior Court ruled that the Cochise County Board of Supervisors must hold an emergency meeting on the same day to certify and approve the canvass.[142] Hours later, the Board voted 2–0 to do so.[143]
Lawsuit
On December 9, 2022, after Arizona certified the election, Lake initiated a lawsuit seeking a court order to either overturn Hobbs' victory and declare Lake as the winner of the election, or redo the election in Maricopa County.[144][145] Lake's complaint alleged that there were hundreds of thousands of illegal votes in the election, but no evidence was provided.[146] On December 19, Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson dismissed eight of ten counts of Lake's lawsuit, regarding invalid signatures on mail-in ballots, incorrect certification, inadequate remedy, as well as violations of freedom of speech, equal protection, due process, the secrecy clause, and constitutional rights.[147][148] The judge allowed the remaining two counts to go to trial, these being allegations that election officials intentionally interfered with Maricopa County ballot printers and with the chain of custody of Maricopa County ballots.[149] The judge ruled that Lake needed to prove during the trial that the above allegations were true, and that the alleged actions "did in fact result in a changed outcome" of the election.[150]
Lake's reaction to the judge's initial ruling was declaring: "Arizona, We will have our day in court!"[151] During the two-day trial, Northrop Grumman information security officer Clay Parikh, a witness called by Lake, testified that some ballots had printing errors that would cause tabulation issues, but also testified that these misprinted ballots would ultimately be counted after duplicates were made.[152][153] On December 24, judge Thompson dismissed Lake's remaining case, as the court did not find clear and convincing evidence that misconduct was committed.[153][154][155] The judge wrote: "Every single witness before the Court disclaimed any personal knowledge of such [intentional] misconduct. The Court cannot accept speculation or conjecture in place of clear and convincing evidence".[156][157] The judge further ruled that "printer failures did not actually affect the results of the election", while highlighting that one witness called by Lake testified that "printer failures were largely the result of unforeseen mechanical failure."[153][156] Regarding the witness Richard Baris, a pollster, who alleged that potential voters were disenfranchised, the judge noted Baris' testimony that "nobody can give a specific number" of people who were disenfranchised, and called Baris' analysis "decidedly insufficient" in this case, because Baris' analysis showed that Hobbs "had a good chance of winning anyway" even after reversing the supposed disenfranchisement.[158]
On December 30, 2022, Lake appealed the ruling to the First Division of the Arizona Court of Appeals.[159] Lake also attempted to transfer her appeal directly to the Arizona Supreme Court, which denied this on January 4, 2023, ruling that there was "no good cause" to do so.[160] On February 16, a three-judge panel for the Arizona Court of Appeals affirmed Thompson's ruling; chief judge Kent Cattani wrote the opinion and two other judges, Maria Elena Cruz and Peter Swann, concurred.[6][161] The appeals court found that "Lake’s only purported evidence" that long lines at voting centers "had any potential effect on election results was, quite simply, sheer speculation."[162] The appeals court noted that "Lake presented no evidence that voters whose ballots were unreadable by on-site tabulators were not able to vote", while highlighting that Lake's own cybersecurity expert testified to the contrary.[161] While Lake alleged that there was improper chain-of-custody documentation in Maricopa County, the appeals court decided that the lower court reasonably concluded that Lake failed to prove this allegation.[161] While Lake alleged that Maricopa County had improperly handled early ballots from election day, the appeals court ruled that even if this allegation was true, Lake "failed to present evidence, as opposed to speculation", that this affected the result of the election.[163] In summary, the appeals court wrote that the evidence presented in court showed that "voters were able to cast their ballots, that votes were counted correctly and that no other basis justifies setting aside the election results".[163]
Lake filed an appeal to the Arizona Supreme Court on March 1, 2023.[7] The Arizona Supreme Court issued a ruling on March 22, written by Arizona Supreme Court Chief Justice Robert Brutinel, finding that the Appeals Court correctly dismissed six of Lake's seven legal claims, as these challenges of hers were "insufficient to warrant the requested relief under Arizona or federal law."[8][164] For Lake's remaining legal claim, on signature verification, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that the lower courts incorrectly interpreted her challenge as pertaining to signature verification policies themselves, instead of the application of such policies; thus this issue was sent back for Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson to reconsider.[8]
The Arizona Supreme Court in May 2023 employed "the extraordinary remedy of a sanction" against Lake's lawyer, which was a $2,000 fine, for having "made false factual statements to the Court".[165][166] Within Lake's court filings was the claim that it was an "undisputed fact that 35,563 unaccounted for ballots were added to the total of ballots [at] a third party processing facility".[167] The Arizona Supreme Court responded that there is "no evidence that 35,563 ballots were" added, and further that Lake's claim had been disputed by Lake's legal opponents, so the claim of an "undisputed fact" is "unequivocally false".[165]
Later, in May 2023, Lake was granted a second trial by Judge Thompson, where Lake needed to prove that "Maricopa County’s higher level signature reviewers conducted no signature verification or curing", in violation of law, and that this changed the election result.[168] Thompson later acknowledged that the scope of Lake's claim of misconduct also extended to Maricopa County’s lower level signature reviewers.[169] The result of the trial was that Lake's remaining claim on improper signature verification was dismissed; Judge Thompson ruled on May 22, 2023, that Lake had not provided "clear and convincing evidence or a preponderance of evidence" of misconduct in the election; instead the court received "ample evidence that — objectively speaking — a comparison between voter records and signatures was conducted in every instance [that Lake] asked the Court to evaluate."[9][170] Thompson noted that Lake's attorneys earlier argued that Maricopa County did not perform signature verification, but later argued that signature verification was performed, but done too quickly.[9] Thompson concluded that it was possible for signature verification to be done quickly and properly when "looking at signatures that, by and large, have consistent characteristics".[171] Meanwhile, Lake's own witnesses testified to performing signature verification for Maricopa County.[9] Thompson did not sanction Lake for her final claim, stating that while there was no clear or convincing evidence for this claim, it was not necessarily "groundless".[172]
Independent investigation into printer problems
The results of an independent investigation into the 2022 election's printing problems was published in April 2023; the investigation was led by a retired chief justice of the Arizona Supreme Court, Ruth McGregor, who concluded that "the primary cause of the election day failures was equipment failure", and that no evidence gathered gave "clear indication that the problems should have been anticipated". McGregor also detailed: "Two-thirds of the general election vote centers reported no issues with misprinted ballots; approximately 94 percent of election day ballots were not faulty".[173][174]
See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Neely and Tulliani-Zen with 2%
- Tulliani-Zen with 2%; Neely with 1%
- "Some other candidate" with 5%; Tulliani-Zen with 4%; Neely with 3%
- Neely and Tulliani-Zen with 1%
- Tulliani-Zen with 3%; Neely with 1%
- Neely with 3%; Tulliani-Zen with 2%
- Neely with 3%; Tulliani-Zen with <1%
- Tulliani-Zen with 5%; Neely with 1%
- Rivas with 1%
- Rivas with 2%
- McCarthy with 5%, "Other" with 4%
- Nominee for Governor of Arizona in 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014, and candidate in 2018; nominee for U.S. Senate in 2000, and write-in candidate in 2018 and 2020
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Refused" with 2%
- Hess (L, disqualified) with 2%
- "Some other candidate" with 2%
- "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Other" with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Refused" with 3%
- Lutes-Burton (L/WI) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Refuse" with <1%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Some other candidate" with 2%
- "Another candidate" with 5%
- "Other/Write-in" with 1%
- "Neither" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
- "Neither" with 3%; "Other" with 2%
- "Other" with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 4%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- Hess with 3%
- Partisan clients
- This poll was sponsored by Taylor Robson's campaign
- This poll was sponsored by Salmon's campaign
- This poll was sponsored by Lake's campaign
- This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action Fund
- Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
- Poll conducted for Univision.
- Poll conducted for The Federalist, a conservative online magazine.
- This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
- This poll was sponsored by Arizona's Family
- This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Lake
- This poll was sponsored by an undisclosed client retaining Summit Consulting Group
- This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
- This poll was sponsored by the Arizona Research Consortium
- This poll was sponsored by Hobbs's campaign
- Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund
References
- "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State". Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- "Democrat Katie Hobbs defeats MAGA favorite Kari Lake in high-stakes race for governor in Arizona". NBC News. Retrieved November 15, 2022.
- Barchenger, Stacey. "Katie Hobbs elected Arizona's 5th female governor, defeating election denier Kari Lake". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved November 15, 2022.
- "Arizona's unique history of governors includes record number of women". www.kgun9.com. November 7, 2022. Retrieved November 15, 2022.
- "Arizona voters pass Prop 131 to create lieutenant governor position, per projections". KTAR.com. November 15, 2022. Retrieved November 20, 2022.
- Barchenger, Stacey (February 16, 2023). "Arizona appeals court rejects Kari Lake's challenge of election loss to Gov. Katie Hobbs". Arizona Republic. Retrieved February 17, 2023.
- Billeaud, Jacques (March 2, 2023). "Lake appeals loss in governor's race to state Supreme Court". Associated Press. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
- Barchenger, Stacey (March 22, 2023). "AZ Supreme Court rejects most of Kari Lake's election challenge". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved March 24, 2023.
- Barchenger, Stacey (May 22, 2023). "Judge rules against Kari Lake, affirms Hobbs as AZ governor in election signature verification trial". Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on May 23, 2023. Retrieved May 23, 2023.
- [6][7][8][9]
- Brownstein, Ronald (October 10, 2023). "McCarthy's fall and Trump's rise reflect the same bet among Republicans". CNN. Retrieved October 10, 2023.
- Gregorian, Dareh. "Kari Lake, Trump-backed election denier, wins GOP primary in Arizona governor's race". NBC News. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
- "Republican Arizona governor candidate Steve Gaynor talks border security in Yuma". KAWC-FM. January 19, 2022. Archived from the original on January 27, 2022. Retrieved April 8, 2022.
- "Regent to seek governor's office". Arizona Capitol Times. May 17, 2021. Archived from the original on May 18, 2021. Retrieved May 18, 2021.
- "Today an Authentic but Unknown Conservative Paola Tulliani Z Has Launched Her Campaign for Governor of Arizona" (Press release). September 2, 2021. Archived from the original on April 8, 2022. Retrieved April 8, 2022.
- "GOP candidate Steve Gaynor ends bid for Arizona governor". Arizona Republic. April 28, 2022. Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved April 28, 2022.
- "Matt Salmon drops out of Arizona governor race, endorses Karrin Taylor Robson". June 28, 2022. Archived from the original on July 1, 2022. Retrieved July 1, 2022.
- "Arizona State Treasurer Kimberly Yee pulls out of governor race, to run for re-election". KNXV. January 15, 2022. Archived from the original on January 15, 2022. Retrieved January 15, 2022.
- "Three-quarters of states will elect governors in the next 2 years. Here's a field guide". POLITICO. December 16, 2020. Archived from the original on May 30, 2022. Retrieved December 16, 2020.
- CATargetBot [@CATargetBot] (April 24, 2021). "NEW DNS REGISTRATIONS - 2021-04-24 t.co/fxSLCWWTuX" (Tweet). Archived from the original on January 16, 2022. Retrieved January 24, 2022 – via Twitter.
- Biggs, Andy [@andybiggs4az] (June 16, 2021). "Today is a big day for AZ. My good friend and co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus, @MattSalmonAZ, got in the race for governor. If there's one thing I know about Matt it's that he will stand up for AZ conservatives. Join me in showing your support at t.co/DwBW6Fa6WV" (Tweet). Archived from the original on January 16, 2022. Retrieved January 24, 2022 – via Twitter.
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- Lake, Kari [@KariLake] (September 29, 2021). "I am so honored to receive the endorsement of General Michael Flynn. He is a true patriot who loves this country. With men like General Flynn and President Trump by my side, we can't lose. 1/8 #KariLakeForAZGovernor t.co/9UVcLtRSkD" (Tweet). Archived from the original on December 30, 2021. Retrieved January 24, 2022 – via Twitter.
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- Lake, Kari. "I am honored to receive the endorsement of Kash Patel. Kash was the Chief of Staff to the Acting Secretary of Defense under President Trump. He was pivotal in discrediting the 2016 Russia Hoax & fighting to advance the America First & Trump Agenda. Thank you, Kash!". Instagram. Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
- Lake, Kari. "Verified I am so honored to be endorsed by one of the toughest Senators in our Nation's history! @marshablackburn is America First to the core. We are lucky to have her in DC fighting for us. Thank you for your support, Senator! 🇺🇸". Instagram. Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
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- Gosar, Paul [@DrPaulGosar] (October 6, 2021). "1/3 I am proud to endorse Kari Lake to be our next Governor. Arizona is at a cross-roads and the state needs a governor who will work with the people, and for the people, and not just special interests. Kari is America First all day, 24-7. t.co/sk26VloGxY" (Tweet). Archived from the original on December 28, 2021. Retrieved January 24, 2022 – via Twitter.
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- Lake, Kari. "🚨 ENDORSEMENT🚨 Arizona State Representative John Fillmore I am honored to have the support of a true America-First, Constitutional Conservative like John. Let's continue the fight! #Karizona #AmericaFirst". Instagram. Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
- Lake, Kari. "🚨 ENDORSEMENT ALERT: Senator Nancy Barto is one of the Greatest Conservative Champions in our state's history. Her endorsement means the world to me. I look forward to working with her to protect Arizona families! Thank you, Senator! 🇺🇸 From Senator Barto: "I have spent my career fighting to preserve the rights and freedoms of the families in our state. When I talk to Kari Lake, I see the same passion in her. Arizona needs a leader who will fight to protect the most vulnerable among us. I am proud to endorse her for Governor. Keep up the fight, Kari!"". Instagram. Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
- Lake, Kari. "Verified Thank you Rep. @JosephChaplik for the endorsement! Arizona is so lucky to have America First fighters like you in #azleg. Your winning battles against mask mandates and to lower taxes for all Arizonans have made such a big difference. I'm proud to have your support!". Instagram. Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
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- Lake, Kari. "🚨 ENDORSEMENT 🚨 @DonaldJTrumpJr: "Please elect this woman if you still believe in Freedom & Liberty in Arizona" Thank you, Don Jr! It's an honor to be in this fight to Save America with you". Instagram. Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
- Kari Lake [@karilake] (April 8, 2022). "Verified It is always a pleasure to spend time with my friend Larry Elder. One of the greatest Conservative voices in history. I am honored to have his endorsement!". Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022 – via Instagram.
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- Lake, Kari [@KariLake] (October 21, 2022). ".@theRealKiyosaki: "I just couldn't stomach politics. But I'm here today to endorse a friend, and a candidate in @Karilake. Because we need leaders. And I've watched Kari Lake evolve from a journalist to a leader, and God-All-Mighty, ladies and gentlemen, we need leaders." t.co/Gc5NgEz9Do" (Tweet). Retrieved December 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
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- Kari Lake [@karilake] (May 20, 2022). "Verified I'm honored to have the support of the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police, Arizona's largest police association. Our officers put their lives on the line every single day for us. They have our backs, and they know I'll have theirs". Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022 – via Instagram.
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{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link) - "Vote Freedom First. Vote Kari Lake For Arizona Governor!". NRA Political Victory Fund. Archived from the original on September 15, 2022. Retrieved September 17, 2022.
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- MoveOn [@MoveOn] (June 23, 2022). "#MoveOnEndorsed @katiehobbs has been hard at work protecting AZ's election process. The result: Record turnout in communities of color in the 2020 election. Katie Hobbs has shown up for our communities, and now it's time for us to show up for her: t.co/Akhmsk3tdh t.co/HqJtXGQNCf" (Tweet). Retrieved December 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
- Hobbs, Katie [@katiehobbs] (August 31, 2022). "Thank you to @Everytown for your endorsement. Arizonans deserve to know that our families & communities are safe when dropping off kids at school, buying groceries, or going to the movies. I will always work to keep every Arizonan safe. t.co/xY4ctqmU2j" (Tweet). Archived from the original on September 9, 2022. Retrieved December 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
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...these technical issues were cropping up in Maricopa County, which has been the epicenter of election conspiracies for the past two years. The local officials running the election—Bill Gates, the chair of the county board of supervisors, and Stephen Richer, the county recorder—were already under enormous scrutiny.
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- Simmons, Anne (November 29, 2022). "Cochise County Board of Supervisors vote to postpone election results certification". KGUN. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
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- "Complaint in Special Action and Verified Statement of Election Contest Pursuant to A.R.S. § 16–672" (pdf). Arizona Maricopa County Clerk of the Court. December 9, 2022.
- Billeaud, Jacques (December 10, 2022). "Kari Lake challenges her defeat in Arizona governor's race". Associated Press. Retrieved December 10, 2022.
The lawsuit filed late Friday by Lake ... also alleges hundreds of thousands of ballots were illegally cast, but there's no evidence that's true.
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External links
Official campaign websites