2014 Ontario general election

The 2014 Ontario general election was held on June 12, 2014, to elect the members of the 41st Parliament of Ontario. The Liberal Party won a majority of seats in the legislature, allowing its leader, Kathleen Wynne, to continue as premier, moving from a minority to majority government. This was the Liberals' fourth consecutive win since 2003 and an improvement from their performance in the 2011 election.[2] The Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak were returned to the official opposition; following the election loss, Hudak announced his resignation as Progressive Conservative leader.[3] The New Democratic Party under Andrea Horwath remained in third place, albeit with an improved share of the popular vote.

2014 Ontario general election
June 12, 2014 (2014-06-12)
107 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
54 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout51.3% (Increase3.1pp)[1]
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Kathleen Wynne Tim Hudak Andrea Horwath
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since January 26, 2013 June 27, 2009 March 7, 2009
Leader's seat Don Valley West Niagara West—Glanbrook Hamilton Centre
Last election 53 seats, 37.65% 37 seats, 35.45% 17 seats, 22.74%
Seats before 48 37 21
Seats won 58 28 21
Seat change Increase10 Decrease9 Steady
Popular vote 1,863,974 1,505,436 1,144,822
Percentage 38.67% 31.23% 23.75%
Swing Increase1.02pp Decrease4.22pp Increase1.01pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.
Premier before election

Kathleen Wynne
Liberal

 Premier after election

Kathleen Wynne
Liberal

The election was called on May 2, 2014, by Lieutenant Governor David Onley,[4] upon the recommendation of Wynne following the announcement that the NDP, whose support was critical to the survival of the Liberals' minority government in the Legislative Assembly, would vote against the Liberals' proposed budget.[5]

With the election, Wynne became the first lesbian woman to lead her party to a majority victory in an Ontario general election.[6]

Timeline (2011–2014)

Seat changes
40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario - Movement in seats held from 2011 to 2014
Party 2011 Gain/(loss) due to 2014
Resignation Byelection hold Byelection gain
Liberal 53(8)348
Progressive Conservative 37(2)1137
New Democratic 17421
Vacant –11
Total107(9)45107
Changes in seats held (2011–2014)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Kitchener—Waterloo April 27, 2012 Elizabeth Witmer █ PC Resignation[a 1] September 6, 2012 Catherine Fife █ New Democratic
Vaughan August 1, 2012 Greg Sorbara █ Liberal Resignation[a 2] September 6, 2012 Steven Del Duca █ Liberal
London West February 14, 2013[7] Chris Bentley █ Liberal Resignation[a 3] August 1, 2013[8] Peggy Sattler █ New Democratic
Windsor—Tecumseh February 14, 2013 Dwight Duncan █ Liberal Resignation[a 4] August 1, 2013 Percy Hatfield █ New Democratic
Ottawa South June 12, 2013[9] Dalton McGuinty █ Liberal Resignation August 1, 2013 John Fraser █ Liberal
Scarborough—Guildwood June 27, 2013[10] Margarett Best █ Liberal Resignation August 1, 2013 Mitzie Hunter █ Liberal
Etobicoke—Lakeshore July 2, 2013[11] Laurel Broten █ Liberal Resignation[a 5] August 1, 2013 Doug Holyday █ PC
Niagara Falls September 24, 2013[12] Kim Craitor █ Liberal Resignation February 13, 2014[13] Wayne Gates █ New Democratic
Thornhill December 31, 2013[14] Peter Shurman █ PC Resignation February 13, 2014 Gila Martow █ PC
Brampton—Springdale March 25, 2014[15] Linda Jeffrey █ Liberal Resignation[a 6] █ Vacant
  1. after being appointed chair of the Workplace Safety & Insurance Board
  2. former Chair of the Management Board of Cabinet and Minister of Finance
  3. also from the positions of Minister of Aboriginal Affairs and Minister of Energy
  4. also from the positions of Minister of Finance and Minister of Government Services
  5. also from her position as Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs
  6. resigning from the positions of Chair of Cabinet and Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, to run for Mayor of Brampton

Other developments
DateEvent
October 6, 2011Election held for members of the Ontario Legislature in the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario.
November 22, 2011The 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario opens with a Speech from the throne.[16]
March 28, 2012Dwight Duncan presents the Government's first minority budget, requiring support from at least one of the other two parties to ensure passage and avoid an early election.
April 10, 2012NDP Leader Andrea Horwath makes several demands to be met in exchange for her party to support the Liberal budget, which support is necessary for the approval of the budget following Tim Hudak's outright rejection of it.[17]
June 15, 2012Premier Dalton McGuinty states he will drop the writ if his budget is not passed.[18]
June 20, 2012The budget bill is passed, after the NDP agrees to abstain, avoiding a summer election.[19]
October 15, 2012Dalton McGuinty announces his resignation as Premier of Ontario and as Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[20]
January 26, 2013Kathleen Wynne is elected Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[21]
February 11, 2013Wynne is sworn in as Premier, and a new cabinet is sworn in.[22]
February 20, 2013Wynne resumes the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario with a Speech of the Throne.
May 1, 2014Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces that his caucus will be voting against the Liberals' budget, proposed earlier that day.
May 2, 2014NDP leader Andrea Horwath announces that the NDP will be voting against the Liberals' proposed budget, triggering a spring election.[5] Following this, Premier Wynne formally asks Lieutenant Governor David Onley to dissolve the legislature and call an election for June 12, 2014.[23]
June 12, 2014The Liberal Party wins a majority, claiming 58 ridings in the Ontario election.[24] Tim Hudak announced that he is stepping down from his leadership of the PC party.[25]
June 14, 2014A judicial recount has been requested in the riding of Thornhill.[26]
June 24, 2014A judge confirms results in Thornhill are in favour of the Progressive Conservatives.[27]

Incumbents not running for reelection
Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee New MPP
Durham   John O'Toole[28] Mike Patrick   Granville Anderson
Etobicoke Centre   Donna Cansfield[29] Yvan Baker   Yvan Baker
Kingston and the Islands   John Gerretsen[30] Sophie Kiwala   Sophie Kiwala
Kitchener Centre   John Milloy[31] Daiene Vernile   Daiene Vernile
Newmarket—Aurora   Frank Klees[32][33] Jane Twinney   Chris Ballard
Ottawa—Orléans   Phil McNeely[34] Marie-France Lalonde   Marie-France Lalonde
Sudbury   Rick Bartolucci[35] Andrew Olivier   Joe Cimino

Results
↓
58 28 21
Liberal PC NDP
Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote[36][37]
2011 Dissol. 2014 Change # % Change
Liberal Kathleen Wynne 107 53 48 58 5Increase 1,863,974 38.67% 1.02%Increase
Progressive Conservative Tim Hudak 107 37 37 28 9Decrease 1,505,436 31.23% 4.22%Decrease
New Democratic Andrea Horwath 107 17 21 21 4Increase 1,144,822 23.75% 1.01%Increase
Green Mike Schreiner 107 – – – – 235,911 4.89% 1.97%Increase
Libertarian Allen Small 74 – – – – 37,696 0.78% 0.33%Increase
Freedom Paul McKeever 42 – – – – 12,381 0.26% 0.05%Increase
Family Coalition Eric Ames (interim) 6 – – – – 4,288 0.09% 0.13%Decrease
None of the Above Greg Vezina 8 – – – – 4,247 0.09% –
Independent   14 – – – – 3,854 0.08% –
Communist Elizabeth Rowley 11 – – – – 2,290 0.05% 0.02%Increase
Canadians' Choice Bahman Yazdanfar 4 – – – – 1,293 0.03% 0.03%Increase
Vegan Environmental Paul Figueiras 5 – – – – 907 0.02% 0.01%Increase
People's Political Party Kevin Clarke 5 – – – – 894 0.02% 0.01%Increase
Northern Ontario Heritage Edward Deibel 3 – – – – 892 0.02% –
Special Needs Danish Ahmed 3 – – – – 709 0.01% 0.01%Decrease
Confederation of Regions vacant 2 – – – – 551 0.01% –
Trillium Bob Yaciuk 2 – – – – 397 0.01% –
Equal Parenting Dennis Valenta 2 – – – – 366 0.01% –
Socialist Michael Laxer 2 – – – – 361 0.01% –
Moderate Yuri Duboisky 2 – – – – 335 0.01% –
Pauper John Turmel 3 – – – – 194 – –
  Declined Vote[38] 31,399 0.64% +0.59%
  Vacant 1
Total 616 107 107 107 4,820,547
Party Votes Seats
Liberal 1,863,974
38.67%
 Increase 1.02%
58 / 107 (54%)
Progressive Conservative 1,505,436
31.23%
 Decrease 4.22%
28 / 107 (26%)
New Democratic 1,144,822
23.75%
 Increase 1.01%
21 / 107 (20%)
Green 235,911
4.89%
 Increase 1.97%
0 / 107 (0%)
Libertarian 37,696
0.78%
 Increase 0.33%
0 / 107 (0%)
Popular vote
Liberal
 
 38.67%
PC
 
 31.23%
New Democratic
 
 23.75%
Green
 
 4.89%
Others
 
 1.46%
Seats summary
Liberal
 
 54.21%
PC
 
 26.17%
New Democratic
 
 19.63%

Synopsis of results
Main article: Results of the 2014 Ontario general election by riding
Results by riding - 2014 Ontario general election[a 1]
Riding 2011 Winning party Turnout
[a 2]		 Votes[a 3]
Party Votes Share Margin
#		 Margin
%		 Lib PC NDP Green Ind Other Total
 
Ajax—Pickering Lib Lib 26,25751.06%11,25821.89%50.18%26,25714,9998,2741,589–30151,420
Algoma—Manitoulin NDP NDP 14,17153.41%7,66728.90%49.38%6,5044,58914,171828–44126,533
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale Lib Lib 24,04244.56%5,79010.73%59.02%24,04218,2528,4152,639–61153,959
Barrie PC Lib 19,91640.69%2,2494.60%49.18%19,91617,6677,9753,018–36648,942
Beaches—East York NDP Lib 17,21840.09%4811.12%56.14%17,2185,98216,7372,329–68242,948
Bramalea—Gore—Malton NDP NDP 23,51944.32%5,64610.64%45.03%17,8739,40323,5192,277––53,072
Brampton—Springdale Lib Lib 16,92740.06%3,4148.08%45.34%16,92710,11713,5131,311–38242,250
Brampton West Lib Lib 24,83245.23%11,46920.89%42.50%24,83213,36312,9851,504–2,41854,902
Brant Lib Lib 19,39637.63%3,9497.66%52.51%19,39615,44713,9922,095–61451,544
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PC PC 20,35947.55%8,77320.49%53.93%11,58620,3596,7873,696–38842,816
Burlington PC Lib 23,57343.41%3,4876.42%57.73%23,57320,0867,7922,250–60854,309
Cambridge PC Lib 18,76338.93%3,0696.37%48.95%18,76315,69410,4132,726–60548,201
Carleton—Mississippi Mills PC PC 30,59047.49%10,11815.71%56.08%20,47230,5908,7444,614––64,420
Chatham-Kent—Essex PC PC 14,18337.83%2,5196.72%51.33%9,15814,18311,6641,971–51437,490
Davenport NDP Lib 16,27245.61%1,9505.47%49.56%16,2722,66514,3221,784–63135,674
Don Valley East Lib Lib 19,24855.71%9,99128.92%47.85%19,2489,2574,5001,256–28734,548
Don Valley West Lib Lib 26,21557.01%12,13326.39%53.90%26,21514,0823,5691,28613869045,980
Dufferin—Caledon PC PC 18,01739.86%4,1569.19%51.48%13,86118,0175,2697,518–53845,203
Durham PC Lib 19,81636.45%1,1762.16%55.71%19,81618,64013,0942,382–43454,366
Eglinton—Lawrence Lib Lib 22,85554.80%8.77621.04%53.99%22,85514,0793,0601,30514326441,706
Elgin—Middlesex—London PC PC 20,94646.36%8,91219.72%53.98%9,18320,94612,0342,236–78445,183
Essex NDP NDP 28,11860.34%17,94938.52%50.20%6,62810,16928,1181,685––46,600
Etobicoke Centre Lib Lib 23,84850.28%8,32817.56%56.47%23,84815,5205,7581,254–1,05247,432
Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lib Lib 24,31147.49%6,72413.13%53.73%24,31117,5876,3622,064–86951,193
Etobicoke North Lib Lib 12,16844.90%5,06518.69%42.71%12,1686,1637,103677–98727,098
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Lib Lib 23,56549.74%8,13617.17%53.36%23,56515,4295,9021,52829665547,375
Guelph Lib Lib 22,01441.52%10,96620.68%55.47%22,01411,0489,38510,230–34853,025
Haldimand—Norfolk PC PC 22,06652.22%12,28029.06%53.97%8,33122,0669,7862,071––42,254
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PC PC 21,64140.96%3,1295.92%55.98%18,51221,64110,4312,255––52,839
Halton PC Lib 33,72444.79%5,7877.69%50.90%33,72427,9379,7582,618–1,26275,299
Hamilton Centre NDP NDP 18,69752.01%10,24728.50%44.76%8,4505,17318,6973,067–56335,950
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP NDP 19,95846.81%7,52517.65%48.84%12,4337,57419,9581,742–93042,637
Hamilton Mountain NDP NDP 23,00646.90%8,49817.32%52.85%14,5088,79523,0062,047–69949,055
Huron—Bruce PC PC 18,51239.01%3,8658.14%59.96%14,64718,51210,8431,651–1,80447,457
Kenora—Rainy River NDP NDP 12,88955.66%6,98430.16%46.72%3,6525,90512,889711––23,157
Kingston and the Islands Lib Lib 20,83841.59%6,02712.03%52.14%20,83810,65214,8113,566–24250,109
Kitchener Centre Lib Lib 18,47243.14%6,92216.17%52.28%18,47211,5509,7652,472–55742,816
Kitchener—Conestoga PC PC 17,08336.36%1,4193.02%50.33%15,66417,0839,9583,277–1,00146,983
Kitchener—Waterloo PC NDP 20,53637.43%4,0027.29%54.95%16,53414,45020,5362,859–48154,860
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC PC 20,71045.17%8,55018.65%56.93%9,29820,71012,1602,104–1,57545,847
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington PC PC 21,96643.52%6,92913.73%53.95%15,03721,96610,1843,283––50,470
Leeds—Grenville PC PC 23,25356.07%14,75435.58%52.86%8,49923,2537,2192,030–47141,472
London—Fanshawe NDP NDP 17,90350.42%9,70727.34%46.42%7,0668,19617,9031,37811285335,508
London North Centre Lib Lib 16,37935.98%2,5265.55%50.21%16,37912,01613,8532,445–82445,517
London West Lib NDP 22,24340.36%5,94810.79%56.03%13,07016,29522,2432,310–1,18855,106
Markham—Unionville Lib Lib 21,51751.33%7,27617.36%44.54%21,51714,2414,2051,509–44441,916
Mississauga—Brampton South Lib Lib 19,92348.21%8,67220.99%41.48%19,92311,2516,9061,3023511,59041,323
Mississauga East—Cooksville Lib Lib 20,93452.33%10,45526.14%43.89%20,93410,4796,1581,408–1,02240,001
Mississauga—Erindale Lib Lib 25,35648.98%9,88219.09%46.90%25,35615,4747,7301,216–1,98851,764
Mississauga South Lib Lib 22,19250.76%7,67817.56%53.55%22,19214,5144,6491,418–94643,719
Mississauga—Streetsville Lib Lib 22,58752.57%10,52724.50%46.76%22,58712,0605,8851,566–86642,964
Nepean—Carleton PC PC 30,90146.77%8,92713.51%55.39%21,97430,9018,6283,630–94066,073
Newmarket—Aurora PC Lib 22,99743.94%3,4126.52%53.40%22,99719,5856,0232,144–1,58452,333
Niagara Falls Lib NDP 24,13147.39%7,42914.59%51.21%7,32916,70224,1311,724–1,03750,923
Niagara West—Glanbrook PC PC 23,37841.82%7,53513.48%58.59%15,84323,37812,4233,004–1,25455,902
Nickel Belt NDP NDP 20,10462.62%13,07340.72%50.00%7,0313,82720,1041,145––32,107
Nipissing PC PC 13,08541.81%4,70315.03%52.49%8,38213,0858,0571,18820837731,297
Northumberland—Quinte West PC Lib 23,41942.97%3,8367.04%55.81%23,41919,5839,2112,283––54,496
Oak Ridges—Markham Lib Lib 36,78245.55%6,5268.08%46.21%36,78230,2569,3552,791–1,57180,755
Oakville Lib Lib 24,71749.40%5,79611.58%56.13%24,71718,9213,9941,887–51850,037
Oshawa PC NDP 22,23246.70%7,69216.16%50.19%9,05114,54022,2321,785––47,608
Ottawa Centre Lib Lib 27,68952.02%16,79531.55%56.85%27,6899,67810,8944,163–80853,232
Ottawa—Orléans Lib Lib 29,91153.50%11,38620.37%59.33%29,91118,5255,0222,036–41155,905
Ottawa South Lib Lib 23,70849.96%8,47317.86%53.71%23,70815,2355,8172,034–65647,450
Ottawa—Vanier Lib Lib 21,81055.55%13,06033.26%48.86%21,8108,7505,2283,144–32939,261
Ottawa West—Nepean Lib Lib 21,03544.84%5,14010.96%55.95%21,03515,8956,7602,899–31846,907
Oxford PC PC 18,95846.24%8,38520.45%51.92%8,73618,95810,5731,985–74941,001
Parkdale—High Park NDP NDP 18,38540.77%5441.21%56.88%17,8415,78718,3852,479–60145,093
Parry Sound—Muskoka PC PC 15,76140.73%5,60314.48%52.11%10,15815,7614,9997,484–29638,698
Perth—Wellington PC PC 15,99238.96%2,4075.86%55.66%13,58515,9927,7642,0053431,35941,048
Peterborough Lib Lib 24,70946.33%8,80216.50%57.30%24,70915,9079,7282,28739530553,331
Pickering—Scarborough East Lib Lib 23,20651.96%10,56823.66%54.77%23,20612,6386,6001,564–65444,662
Prince Edward—Hastings PC PC 19,28141.72%4,1769.04%51.61%15,10519,2818,8292,448–55546,218
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PC PC 25,24161.07%17,34441.96%54.32%7,89725,2415,9781,33739248941,334
Richmond Hill Lib Lib 20,45547.78%4,81311.24%45.69%20,45515,6424,6971,344–67042,808
St. Catharines Lib Lib 19,07041.00%5,25611.30%54.80%19,07013,81411,3501,792–48846,514
St. Paul's Lib Lib 30,02759.74%17,99035.79%57.11%30,02712,0375,0562,569–57250,261
Sarnia—Lambton PC PC 18,72241.01%2,3955.25%57.35%8,15218,72216,3272,109–34045,650
Sault Ste. Marie Lib Lib 17,49058.53%9,88033.06%50.77%17,4903,7047,610965–11529,884
Scarborough—Agincourt Lib Lib 17,33249.84%5,29115.22%46.04%17,33212,0414,105907–38734,772
Scarborough Centre Lib Lib 19,39055.05%11,79133.48%48.09%19,3907,5997,1451,086––35,220
Scarborough—Guildwood Lib Lib 17,31849.89%7,59721.89%49.24%17,3189,7215,8941,034–74434,711
Scarborough—Rouge River Lib Lib 16,09538.71%3,0767.40%47.48%16,09511,50013,019571–39841,583
Scarborough Southwest Lib Lib 18,42050.23%9,74626.58%49.91%18,4207,5738,6741,49318532836,673
Simcoe—Grey PC PC 25,98847.12%8,78915.94%52.00%17,19925,9887,7934,172––55,152
Simcoe North PC PC 22,17943.96%5,76611.43%53.33%16,41322,1797,8464,013––50,451
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PC PC 20,62451.72%11,37428.52%52.02%9,25020,6248,3361,067–60239,879
Sudbury Lib NDP 14,27442.24%9782.89%51.92%13,2964,66314,2741,21210524333,793
Thornhill PC PC 21,88643.99%1060.21%47.83%21,78021,8864,0521,229–80449,751
Thunder Bay—Atikokan Lib Lib 15,17652.98%7,12424.87%49.02%15,1763,7798,052964–67628,647
Thunder Bay—Superior North Lib Lib 15,51955.97%7,35026.51%50.41%15,5191,9918,169997–1,04927,725
Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP NDP 14,66155.48%8,52732.27%50.68%6,1344,52714,661489–61526,426
Timmins—James Bay NDP NDP 11,75651.18%6,22927.12%45.15%5,5275,22611,756403–6022,972
Toronto Centre Lib Lib 29,93558.47%20,43739.92%50.86%29,9359,4988,1402,265–1,35751,195
Toronto—Danforth NDP NDP 19,19044.61%3,2077.46%55.30%15,9834,30419,1902,351–1,18943,017
Trinity—Spadina NDP Lib 26,61346.34%9,17115.97%49.33%26,6138,03517,4424,033–1,31157,434
Vaughan Lib Lib 33,87756.21%16,89828.04%44.68%33,87716,9796,9421,350–1,12160,269
Welland NDP NDP 21,32646.71%8,39318.38%53.20%9,06012,93321,3261,874–46045,653
Wellington—Halton Hills PC PC 22,45046.61%8,33017.29%55.61%14,12022,4506,8043,550–1,24148,165
Whitby—Oshawa PC PC 24,02740.65%5,4109.15%54.35%18,61724,02713,6212,523–32259,110
Willowdale Lib Lib 24,30052.58%8,83219.11%46.88%24,30015,4684,6931,758––46,219
Windsor—Tecumseh Lib NDP 22,81862.16%17,21946.91%42.77%5,5992,11822,8185,493–68236,710
Windsor West Lib NDP 15,04341.41%1,0422.87%42.71%14,0015,22515,0431,171891–36,331
York Centre Lib Lib 16,93547.89%5,81016.43%46.74%16,93511,1255,6451,163–49335,361
York—Simcoe PC PC 19,02540.40%2,7495.84%47.53%16,27619,0258,4202,946–41947,086
York South—Weston Lib Lib 15,66947.85%3,46910.59%46.13%15,6693,68712,20079714624932,748
York West Lib Lib 11,90746.71%1,9107.49%42.24%11,9072,7949,99741811126725,494
  = open seat
  = turnout is above provincial average
  = incumbent re-elected
  = incumbency arose from byelection gain
  1. "2014 General Election". elections.on.ca. Elections Ontario. Retrieved June 18, 2023.
  2. including spoilt ballots
  3. minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately

Maps
  • Support for Liberal Party candidates by riding
    Support for Liberal Party candidates by riding
  • Support for Conservative Party candidates by riding
    Support for Conservative Party candidates by riding
  • Support for New Democratic Party candidates by riding
    Support for New Democratic Party candidates by riding
  • Support for Green Party candidates by riding
    Support for Green Party candidates by riding
  • Support for Libertarian Party candidates by riding
    Support for Libertarian Party candidates by riding

Summary analysis
Number of seats held by party in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario (2014).
Retention swing analysis between parties for the 2014 Ontario general election, compared to the results from the previous 2011 election.
Gallagher index for the results of the Ontario general election, 2014. There is significant distortion noted in the Liberal results.
Polling station in Toronto for the Ontario general election, 2014.
Popular vote
party year votes change
Liberal 2011
  
 37.65% +1.02pp
2014
  
 38.67%
Conservative 2011
  
 35.45% -4.22pp
2014
  
 31.23%
NDP 2011
  
 22.74% +1.01pp
2014
  
 23.75%
Green 2011
  
 2.92% +1.97pp
2014
  
 4.89%
Libertarian 2011
  
 0.45% +0.33pp
2014
  
 0.78%
Others 2011
  
 0.79% -0.11pp
2014
  
 0.68%


Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - seats won/lost by party, 2011-2014
Party 2011 Gain from (loss to) 2014
Lib PC NDP
   Liberal5373(5)58
   Conservative37(7)(2)28
   New Democratic175(3)221
Total1075(10)93(7)107

Pairing off the top three parties, swings were calculated to be:

  • PC to Liberal: 2.6%
  • PC to NDP: 2.6%
  • Liberal to NDP: insignificant

Regional analysis
Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - seats won by region (2014)
PartyToronto905 BeltHam/NiagaraCentralEastMidwestSouthwestNorthTotal
   Liberal201445741358
   Conservative216764228
   New Democratic22515621
Total2218101114111011107
Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - change in seats by region (2011-2014)
PartyToronto905 BeltHam/NiagaraCentralEastMidwestSouthwestNorthTotal
   Liberal3141(3)(1)5
   Conservative(1)(2)(4)(2)(9)
   New Democratic(3)111314

Principal races
Party candidates in 2nd place
Party in 1st placeParty in 2nd placeTotal
Lib PC NDP
Liberal –431558
Progressive Conservative 22–628
New Democratic 147–21
Total 365021107
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results
PartiesSeats
█ Liberal █ Progressive Conservative 65
█ Liberal █ New Democratic 29
█ Progressive Conservative █ New Democratic 13
Total 107
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party
Parties1st2nd3rd4th5thTotal
█ Liberal 583613107
█ Progressive Conservative 2850281107
█ New Democratic 2121623107
█ Green 41012107
█ Libertarian 16162
█ Northern Ontario Heritage 11
█ Freedom 1515
█ None of the Above 44
█ Family Coalition 33
█ Independent 22
█ Communist 22
█ Confederation of Regions 22
█ Canadians' Choice 11
█ Trillium 11

Significant results among independent and minor party candidates

Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:

RidingPartyCandidatesVotesPlaced
Huron—Bruce█ FamilyCoalition Andrew Zettel1,3535th
Kitchener—Conestoga█ Libertarian David Schumm1,0015th
London West█ Freedom Al Gretzky1,1885th
Oak Ridges—Markham█ Libertarian Karl Boelling1,3585th
Vaughan█ Libertarian Paolo Fabrizio1,1215th
Wellington—Halton Hills█ Libertarian Jason Cousineau1,0435th

Seats changing hands

There were 17 seats that changed allegiance from the 2011 election.

Resulting composition of the 41st Legislative Assembly of Ontario
SourceParty
Lib PC NDP Total
Seats retainedIncumbents returned42281484
Open seats held55
Byelection loss reversed11
Seats changing handsIncumbents defeated8210
Open seats gained213
Byelection gains held44
Total582821107

Marginal seats

The following seats had a margin of victory of less than 5 percentage points in the election:

Marginal constituencies (Ontario general election, 2014)[39]
ConstituencyRank of partiesMarginsResult
1st2nd3rd1st vs 2nd1st vs 3rd
Barrie40.7%36.1%16.3%4.6%24.4% Lib gain
Beaches—East York40.1%39.0%13.9%1.1%26.2% Lib gain
Durham36.5%34.3%24.1%2.2%12.4% Lib gain
Kitchener—Conestoga36.4%33.3%21.2%3.1%15.2% PC hold
Parkdale—High Park40.8%40.0%12.8%0.8%28.0% NDP hold
Sudbury42.2%39.4%13.8%2.8%28.4% NDP gain
Thornhill44.0%43.8%8.1%0.2%35.9% PC hold
Windsor West41.4%38.5%14.4%2.9%27.0% NDP gain

Opinion polls

Voting intention polls released throughout the election campaign were distinctly inconsistent and contradictory,[40][41][42][43] as shown in the graph and table below. During much of the campaign, different pollsters persistently disagreed, frequently by important margins, on whether the Liberals or Progressive Conservatives held the lead, though by the final days most polls showed the Liberals marginally to comfortably ahead. Still, polls completed on the last day of the campaign by Ipsos Reid and EKOS showed vastly divergent support for the NDP, at 30% and 19%, respectively. Also of note, although four different pollsters released results among "likely voters" alongside their results among all eligible voters in an effort to better predict the outcome of the election based on expected voter turnout, in all cases the former proved to be overall poorer predictors than the latter.[44]

General opinion polls
Evolution of voting intentions during the 2014 Ontario general election campaign. Dots represent results of individual polls. Lines connect successive polls by the same polling firm. Dashes on June 12 represent election results.
Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Other Type
of poll		 Sample
size		 Margin
of Error
Election 2014 June 12, 2014 HTML 38.65 31.25 23.75 4.84 1.51 Ballot 4,851,333
Forum Research June 11, 2014 PDF 41 35 20 3 1 IVR 1,054 ±3%19 times out of 20
EKOS[2] June 11, 2014 PDF 37.3 31.3 19.2 8.2 3.9 IVR 1,311 ±2.7%19 times out of 20
Abacus Data[2] June 11, 2014 PDF 35 32 26 6 1 Online 1,882 ±2.3%19 times out of 20
Ipsos Reid[2] June 11, 2014 HTML 33 31 30 5 Online 1,991 ±2.4% 
EKOS[2] June 10, 2014 PDF 36.6 30.2 21.5 6.6 5.0 IVR 1,332 ±2.7%19 times out of 20
Angus Reid[2] June 10, 2014 PDF 36 32 26 5 1 Online 1,866 ±2.3%19 times out of 20
Forum Research June 9, 2014 PDF 42 35 19 3 1 IVR 739 ±4%19 times out of 20
Léger Marketing June 9, 2014 PDF 37 37 20 5 1 Online 1,050 ±3.2%19 times out of 20
EKOS[2] June 9, 2014 PDF 34.7 34.5 19.8 6.7 4.3 IVR 1,417 ±2.6%19 times out of 20
EKOS[2] June 8, 2014 PDF 35.9 35.9 17.6 7.7 2.8 IVR 1,331 ±2.7%19 times out of 20
Oraclepoll Research June 8, 2014 PDF 35 36 24 5 Telephone 1,000 ±3.1%19 times out of 20
Abacus Data[2] June 7, 2014 PDF 34 31 28 5 1 Online 1,000 ±3.1%19 times out of 20
EKOS[2] June 6, 2014 PDF 34.2 35.5 20.5 7.4 2.4 IVR 1,767 ±2.3%19 times out of 20
Ipsos Reid[2] June 6, 2014 HTML 35 35 26 4 Online 2,140 ±2.4% 
Forum Research June 5, 2014 PDF 39 37 17 6 1 IVR 1,022 ±3%19 times out of 20
EKOS[2] June 5, 2014 PDF 33.9 34.9 20.5 8.4 2.3 IVR 1,690 ±2.4%19 times out of 20
EKOS[2] June 4, 2014 PDF 35.7 30.9 19.8 9.6 4.0 IVR 1,303 ±2.7%19 times out of 20
EKOS June 3, 2014 PDF 36.4 31.0 19.3 8.4 4.9 IVR 997 ±3.1%19 times out of 20
EKOS June 2, 2014 PDF 38.8 30.5 17.8 8.4 4.5 IVR 934 ±3.2%19 times out of 20
EKOS June 1, 2014 PDF 38.5 33.7 16.9 7.8 3.0 IVR 927 ±3.2%19 times out of 20
Abacus Data[2] May 31, 2014 PDF 37 30 24 7 2 Online 1,000 ±3.1%19 times out of 20
Ipsos Reid[2] May 29, 2014 HTML 34 36 23 7 Online 868 ±3.8% 
Forum Research May 27, 2014 PDF Archived 2014-05-29 at the Wayback Machine 36 36 20 7 1 IVR 882 ±3%19 times out of 20
Oraclepoll Research May 27, 2014 PDF 32 36 25 7 Telephone 1,000 ±3.1%19 times out of 20
Nanos Research May 26, 2014 PDF 37.7 31.2 23.7 5.3 Telephone 500 ±4.4%19 times out of 20
Abacus Data[2] May 24, 2014 PDF 34 32 25 6 2 Online 1,000 ±3.1%19 times out of 20
EKOS May 23, 2014 PDF 35.8 30.0 20.4 11.9 1.9 IVR 1,215 ±2.8%19 times out of 20
Ipsos Reid[2] May 21, 2014 HTML 31 35 28 6 Online 800 ±3.9% 
Forum Research May 20, 2014 PDF 41 34 20 4 1 IVR 1,136 ±3%19 times out of 20
Abacus Data[2] May 16, 2014 PDF 33 33 26 6 2 Online 2,000 ±2.2%19 times out of 20
EKOS May 15, 2014 PDF 37.1 30.3 20.9 7.3 4.5 IVR 1,111 ±2.9%19 times out of 20
Ipsos Reid[2] May 14, 2014 HTML 30 39 24 7 Online 801 ±3.9% 
Forum Research May 12, 2014 PDF Archived 2014-05-17 at the Wayback Machine 38 35 21 5 1 IVR 996 ±3%19 times out of 20
Ipsos Reid[2] May 9, 2014 HTML 31 37 28 4 Online 821 ±3.9% 
Innovative Research May 6, 2014 PDF 38.8 32.8 19.9 6.5 2.0 Online 1,000 N/A[1]
Innovative Research May 6, 2014 PDF 38.7 32.8 23.7 4.3 0.5 Telephone 500 ±4.4%19 times out of 20
Oraclepoll Research May 5, 2014 PDF

HTML

 31 42 25 3 Telephone 1,000 ±3.2%19 times out of 20
Forum Research May 3, 2014 PDF Archived 2014-05-05 at the Wayback Machine 33 38 22 6 1 IVR 1,845 ±2%19 times out of 20
EKOS May 1, 2014 PDF 34.7 31.6 22.2 9.4 2.0 IVR 1,576 ±2.5%19 times out of 20
Election 2011 October 6, 2011 PDF 37.65 35.45 22.74 2.92 1.24 Ballot 4,316,382

1 Innovative Research states, for Province Wide Online Survey, "Margin of error not applicable, online samples not random."
2 Data shown above for campaign-period polls are top-line results, typically among all eligible voters. However, certain pollsters additionally report results among "likely voters" in an effort to better predict the actual outcome of the election. When available, these alternative results are shown in the following table:

Likely voters
Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Other
EKOS June 11, 2014 PDF 42.2 35.9 16.9 2.9 2.1
Abacus Data June 11, 2014 PDF 36 36 23 5 1
Ipsos Reid June 11, 2014 HTML 30 36 30 4
EKOS June 10, 2014 PDF 41.1 33.2 17.1 5.6 2.9
Angus Reid June 10, 2014 PDF 34 36 24 5 1
EKOS June 9, 2014 PDF 38.1 36.3 16.9 5.7 3.1
EKOS June 8, 2014 PDF 42.2 35.4 13.9 6.4 2.0
Abacus Data June 7, 2014 PDF 34 34 26 5 1
EKOS June 6, 2014 PDF 40.7 35.7 16.3 5.6 1.8
Ipsos Reid June 6, 2014 HTML 32 40 24 3
EKOS June 5, 2014 PDF 39.5 35.6 16.7 6.6 2
EKOS June 4, 2014 PDF 41.4 32.0 17.8 6.2 3
Abacus Data May 31, 2014 PDF 37 35 22 5 2
Ipsos Reid May 29, 2014 HTML 29 41 25 4
Abacus Data May 24, 2014 PDF 36 33 24 6 1
Ipsos Reid May 21, 2014 HTML 30 41 26 3
Abacus Data May 16, 2014 PDF 33 36 25 5 1
Ipsos Reid May 14, 2014 HTML 31 43 22 4
Ipsos Reid May 9, 2014 HTML 28 42 27 2

Pre-campaign period
Evolution of voting intentions since the 40th Ontario general election on October 6, 2011. Points represent results of individual polls. Trend lines represent three-poll moving averages.
Pre-campaign period polling (October 2011 – April 2014)
Polling firm Last date of polling Link Liberal PC NDP Green Type of poll Sample size
Ipsos Reid April 17, 2014 HTML 32 37 27 5 Online 813
Innovative Research April 14, 2014 PDF 39 30 23 7 Online 800
Nanos Research April 11, 2014 PDF 36.3 36.0 21.6 5.7 Telephone 503
Forum Research April 7, 2014 PDF Archived 2014-04-13 at the Wayback Machine 31 38 23 7 IVR 928
Oraclepoll Research April 7, 2014 PDF 35 34 24 8 Telephone 1,000
EKOS April 3, 2014 PDF 32.3 27.4 29.0 8.3 IVR 1,234
Innovative Research March 26, 2014 PDF 38 33 25 4 Online 1,017
Forum Research March 24, 2014 PDF Archived 2014-04-07 at the Wayback Machine 35 32 25 7 IVR 908
Nanos Research March 3, 2014 PDF 35.7 32.9 24.5 6.8 Telephone 500
Forum Research February 25, 2014 HTML 32 35 26 6 IVR 1,014
Ipsos Reid February 7, 2014 HTML 31 34 31 4 Online 828
Forum Research January 25, 2014 HTML 33 36 26 4 IVR 1,222
Nanos Research January 20, 2014 PDF 35.5 28.1 27.4 8.1 Telephone 500
Forum Research December 18, 2013 HTML 31 38 24 5 IVR 1,044
Forum Research November 26, 2013 PDF Archived 2013-12-19 at the Wayback Machine 32 38 23 6 IVR 1,126
Ipsos Reid November 6, 2013 HTML 34 31 31 5 Online 832
Forum Research October 25, 2013 HTML 31 34 27 7 IVR 1,049
Forum Research October 1, 2013 HTML 33 36 23 7 IVR 1,093
Nanos Research September 29, 2013 PDF 36.0 31.3 26.1 6.3 Telephone 500
Campaign Research September 19, 2013 PDF 36 32 22 8 IVR 1,414
Abacus Data September 4, 2013 PDF 30 33 30 5 Online 1,000
Forum Research August 28, 2013 PDF 32 35 26 6 IVR 1,063
Innovative Research August 27, 2013 HTML 37 30 22 10 Telephone 600
Forum Research July 22, 2013 PDF 31 36 27 5 IVR 914
Nanos Research July 14, 2013 PDF 37.2 30.6 27.0 4.9 Telephone 500
EKOS July 9, 2013 PDF 31.9 28.9 25.9 9.4 IVR 830
Forum Research June 26, 2013 PDF 33 35 24 8 IVR 1,037
Forum Research May 28, 2013 PDF 38 34 21 6 IVR 918
EKOS May 26, 2013 HTML 34.9 29.6 22.6 9.4 IVR 1,152
Ipsos Reid May 21, 2013 HTML 34 34 26 5 Online 1,772
Abacus Data May 9, 2013 PDF 34 34 25 6 Online 1,185
Innovative Research May 9, 2013 PDF 37 30 25 6 Telephone 610
Forum Research May 3, 2013 PDF 35 35 25 4 IVR 869
Forum Research April 26, 2013 PDF 36 36 24 4 IVR 1,133
Ipsos Reid April 17, 2013 HTML 28 37 29 6 Online 1,360
EKOS April 10, 2013 PDF 30.8 31.7 25.5 9.7 IVR 1,084
Forum Research March 27, 2013 PDF 33 35 26 5 IVR 1,156
Forum Research March 1, 2013 PDF 32 32 29 5 IVR 2,773
Forum Research February 20, 2013 PDF 29 36 28 5 IVR 1,053
Nanos Research February 13, 2013 PDF 33.6 33.7 26.5 5.4 Telephone 500
EKOS February 10, 2013 PDF 32.5 28.5 25.6 10.1 IVR 1,797
Abacus Data February 6, 2013 PDF Archived 2014-04-15 at the Wayback Machine 30 33 31 5 Online 1,020
Innovative Research January 29, 2013 PDF 31 30 27 9 Telephone 446
Forum Research January 24, 2013 PDF 27 32 35 5 IVR 1,108
Forum Research December 17, 2012 PDF 27 33 31 8 IVR 990
Abacus Data December 8, 2012 PDF Archived 2014-04-15 at the Wayback Machine 28 35 31 5 Online 821
Forum Research November 28, 2012 PDF 29 35 27 8 IVR 1,127
Oraclepoll Research November 24, 2012 PDF 26 37 31 6 Telephone
Forum Research October 31, 2012 PDF 22 37 32 7 IVR 1,102
Innovative Research October 22, 2012 PDF 28 32 31 9 Telephone 600
Angus Reid October 17, 2012 PDF 26 36 32 5 Online 802
Forum Research September 25, 2012 PDF 20 37 35 7 IVR 851
Nanos Research August 16, 2012 PDF 34.0 34.7 22.1 6.8 Telephone 1,000
Forum Research August 15, 2012 PDF 27 38 28 6 IVR 1,021
Forum Research June 15, 2012 PDF 26 38 30 5 IVR 1,098
Forum Research June 4, 2012 PDF 28 36 30 4 IVR 1,038
Environics May 25, 2012 PDF 25 37 28 10 Telephone 500
Forum Research May 14, 2012 PDF 27 34 32 5 IVR 1,072
Nanos Research May 13, 2012 PDF 31.0 33.6 28.5 5.6 Telephone 500
Forum Research April 17, 2012 PDF 28 34 31 5 IVR 1,084
Nanos Research April 15, 2012 PDF 35.4 32.1 26.5 6.0 Telephone 501
Environics April 13, 2012 HTML 27 37 30 6 Telephone 500
Forum Research March 28, 2012 PDF 30 34 30 5 IVR 1,131
Forum Research March 13, 2012 PDF 28 40 23 8 IVR 1,065
Nanos Research March 5, 2012 PDF 39.9 30.0 24.7 4.3 Telephone 500
Forum Research February 15, 2012 PDF 32 36 26 5 IVR 1,218
Forum Research January 18, 2012 PDF 33 41 20 4 IVR 1,041
Nanos Research November 13, 2011 PDF 39.1 34.5 21.6 3.5 Telephone 500
Innovative Research November 2, 2011 PDF 39 34 23 4 Online 545
Election 2011 October 6, 2011 PDF 37.65 35.45 22.74 2.92 Ballot 4,316,382

Issues

Economy

Unemployment in Ontario was a major political issue. In particular, the manufacturing sector had shrunk by about 30% or more than 300,000 jobs since 2002.[45]

The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario proposed a plan called "Million Jobs Plan", outlining their strategy for job creation and economic growth. By reducing tax, government services, energy costs and regulations the PCs projected to create a cumulative 507,488 jobs over eight years.[46] The plan also called for the reduction of 100,000 civil service jobs. Economists and critics noted fundamental mathematical errors with the PCs' projections. They held, even if the PCs' own data were correctly tabulated, only 50,000 extra jobs would be created (in addition to the 500,000 that would be created anyway without any policy change).[47]

The Ontario Liberal Party proposed the 10 year "Jobs and Investment Plan", which proposed infrastructure investments as their main strategy to create jobs.[48]

The Ontario New Democratic Party platform called for targeted tax credits and incentives to encourage job creation.[49]

The Green Party of Ontario policy proposal stated that it would "focus on your job by lowering payroll taxes for small businesses" as well as investing in transit infrastructure and subsidising energy-saving home improvements.[50]

The Ontario Libertarian Party called for mass privatization, lower taxes and general deregulation, eliminating many business requirements such as permitting, insurance and certification that they considered to be interfering with job creation.[51] Their platform called for government spending to be limited to "only core functions of government; defending life, liberty, and property"[52] and as such would have eliminated industry subsidies or incentives of any kind, particularly in the energy sector.[53]

The Communist Party of Ontario called for raising the minimum wage to $19/hr as well as introducing a guaranteed annual income, nationalization of the domestic steel industry, and investments in public housing, infrastructure and social programs, while shifting taxes from lower to higher income-earners and businesses.[54]

Transit

Due to rapid urban and suburban expansion in southern Ontario, traffic congestion had been increasing greatly. A 2013 study by the CD Howe Institute determined that it was costing $7.5-11 billion annually for the economy of Toronto alone.[55][56]

The Liberals promised $29 billion in infrastructure spending, $15 billion of which would go towards building new transit (mostly LRT) lines in the GTHA, based on the outline of Metrolinx's The Big Move plan, as well as an LRT in Ottawa.[57][58] A high-speed rail line crossing the province from the southeast into Quebec was also planned. The PCs promised to finish building the Eglinton Crosstown, but cancel all the other planned lines, and instead focus on quickly expanding GO service.[59] The NDP plan was similar to the Liberal plan, but included an extra $1 billion to get certain projects built faster.[57]

Endorsements

Media endorsements

The following media outlets made endorsements during the campaign:

Liberal

Progressive Conservative

New Democratic Party

Explicitly not endorsing any party

Public figure endorsements

The media has reported the following endorsements by public figures during the campaign:

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