2023 Manitoba general election

The 2023 Manitoba general election was held on October 3, 2023, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba, led by Premier of Manitoba Heather Stefanson, had attempted to win a third term in government, having previously won the 2016 and 2019 elections under the leadership of Brian Pallister. They were defeated by the New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Wab Kinew. Following the election, Kinew became the first First Nations person to become premier of a Canadian province.

2023 Manitoba general election

October 3, 2023

57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Turnout55.26% Increase
  First party Second party Third party
 
Wab Kinew (crop 2).jpg
Heather Stefanson Consulate Winnipeg Independence Day Celebration 2022 (cropped).jpg
Dougald_Lamont,_Manitoba_Liberal_Leader.jpg
Leader Wab Kinew Heather Stefanson Dougald Lamont
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since September 16, 2017 October 30, 2021 October 21, 2017
Leader's seat Fort Rouge Tuxedo St. Boniface (lost re-election)
Last election 18 seats, 31.38% 36 seats, 47.07% 3 seats, 14.48%
Seats before 18 35 3
Seats won 34 22 1
Seat change Increase 16 Decrease 13 Decrease 2
Popular vote 221,363 204,835 51,691
Percentage 45.5% 42.1% 10.6%
Swing Increase 14.1pp Decrease 5.0pp Decrease 3.9pp

Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed on the bottom.

Premier before election

Heather Stefanson
Progressive Conservative

Premier after election

Wab Kinew
New Democratic

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[1] As the previous election was held in 2019, the latest possible date for the election was October 3, 2023, which was the official election date.[2] The election will be held under first-past-the-post voting.

On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he would not seek re-election and resigned shortly after. Heather Stefanson was chosen by Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba members to succeed Premier Kelvin Goertzen, who served as interim leader of the party after Pallister's departure.[3][4] During the previous legislature, the opposition NDP had gained a polling lead over the PCs. However, the lead had tightened during the campaign period.

Campaign

Stefanson primarily campaigned on reducing the cost of living for Manitobans.[5] Kinew led the NDP into the election.[6] The NDP campaign has focused on healthcare reform.[7][8] In addition, Dougald Lamont led the Liberals and Janine Gibson led the Green party, having been elected leader in March.

The PCs have promoted the film industry in the province and in 2022 helped WestJet launch direct flights from Los Angeles to Winnipeg.[9] The New Democrats focused on healthcare with a promise to improve cardiac services.[9] They also pledged to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes.[10] The Liberals campaigned on creating more benefits for seniors including establishing a minimum income for people over 60.[11] They also promised new debt relief system if elected.[12] The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce encouraged voters to prioritise the economy when voting.[13]

Other campaign issues included; crime,[14] agriculture[15] and affordable housing.[16] Indigenous issues were reportedly side-lined during the campaign.[17]

In recent history Manitoba has elected majority governments so the media coverage was focused on the PCs and the NDP.[18] In the final days of the campaign the Manitoba government reported a $270M surplus in the provincial budget.[19]

Riding contests, by number of candidates (2023)
Candidates NDP PC Lib Grn KP Comm Ind Total
2 448
3 34343031102
4 161616742364
5 3333315
Total 57574913553189

Legislature summary

[20]

Elections to the 43rd Manitoba Legislature
Party[21] Leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Dissolution Elected % +/– Votes % Change
(pp)
New Democratic Wab Kinew 5718183459.65+16
Progressive Conservative Heather Stefanson 5736352238.60–14
Liberal Dougald Lamont 493311.75–2
  Keystone Kevin Friesen 5
Green Janine Gibson 13
Communist Andrew Taylor 5
  Independents 3
  Vacant 1
Valid votes
Blank and invalid votes
Total 1895757
Registered voters/turnout

    Incumbents not running for reelection

    Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nominee New MLA
    Agassiz   Eileen Clarke[22]
    Jodie Byram Jodie Byram
    Brandon West   Reg Helwer[23] Wayne Balcaen Wayne Balcaen
    Fort Richmond   Sarah Guillemard[24] Paramjit Shahi Jennifer Chen
    Kildonan-River East   Cathy Cox[25] Alana Vannahme Rachelle Schott
    Lakeside   Ralph Eichler[26] Trevor King Trevor King
    La Verendrye   Dennis Smook[27] Konrad Narth Konrad Narth
    McPhillips   Shannon Martin[28] Sheilah Restall Jasdeep Devgan
    Midland   Blaine Pedersen[29]
    Lauren Stone Lauren Stone
    Portage la Prairie   Ian Wishart[30] Jeff Bereza Jeff Bereza
    Roblin   Myrna Driedger[31] Kathleen Cook Kathleen Cook
    Spruce Woods   Cliff Cullen[32] Grant Jackson Grant Jackson
    Selkirk   Alan Lagimodiere[33] Richard Perchotte   Richard Perchotte

    Candidates

    The PCs and New Democrats ran candidates in all 57 ridings, while the Liberals ran candidates in 49 and the Greens in 13, respectively.[34][35][36]

    Marginal seats

    Seats in the 2019 general election which were won by under 10%

    Seat 2019 held 2023 Winner
    Party Margin Party Margin
    McPhillips   PC 1.00%   NDP 3.02%
    Transcona   NDP 1.29%   NDP 23.06%
    Southdale   PC 4.56%   NDP 14.32%
    Rossmere   PC 8.06%   NDP 8.29%
    Dauphin   PC 8.13%   NDP 3.28%
    Assiniboia   PC 8.79%   NDP 9.69%
    Riel   PC 9.36%   NDP 16.61%
    St. Vital   NDP 9.58%   NDP 30.79%
    The Maples   NDP 9.75%   NDP 32.33%
    Wolseley   NDP 9.98%   NDP 65.42%

    Results

    Results were formally declared on October 3.[37] The NDP only finished four percentage points ahead of the Tories on the popular vote. However, they dominated Winnipeg, taking all but three seats in the capital.[38] Eight members of Stefanson's cabinet were defeated.[39]

    Results overview

    Popular vote
    NDP
    45.5%
    PC
    42.1%
    Liberal
    10.6%
    Others
    1.8%
    Seats
    NDP
    59.65%
    PC
    38.60%
    Liberal
    1.75%

    Synopsis of results by riding

    2023 Manitoba general election - synopsis of riding results (unofficial)[40]
    Riding[a 1] 2019 Winning party Turnout
    [a 2]
    Votes
    Party Votes Share Margin
    #
    Margin
    %
    NDP PC Lib KP Grn Ind Comm Total
     
    Agassiz  PC  PC 4,69264.04%3,10542.38%56%1,5874,692327721---7,327
    Assiniboia  PC  NDP 4,72150.02%9159.69%55%4,7213,806911----9,438
    Borderland  PC  PC 4,40572.83%3,50357.92%51%9024,405741----6,048
    Brandon East  PC  NDP 3,73655.40%1,02815.24%45%3,7362,708300----6,744
    Brandon West  PC  PC 3,80548.80%951.22%51%3,7103,805--282--7,797
    Burrows  NDP  NDP 2,99945.84%92514.14%44%2,9991,4692,074----6,542
    Concordia  NDP  NDP 4,20364.46%2,36736.30%43%4,2031,836481----6,520
    Dauphin  PC  NDP 5,09751.68%3323.37%64%5,0974,765-----9,862
    Dawson Trail  PC  PC 5,43652.09%9238.84%67%4,5135,436--487--10,436
    Elmwood  NDP  NDP 4,92762.21%2,74134.61%48%4,9272,186430-303-747,920
    Flin Flon  NDP  NDP 2,84376.55%1,97253.10%42%2,843871-----3,714
    Fort Garry  NDP  NDP 5,30758.81%2,92732.44%59%5,3072,3801,100-237--9,024
    Fort Richmond  PC  NDP 4,55653.74%1,51517.87%58%4,5563,041881----8,478
    Fort Rouge  NDP  NDP 6,75970.62%5,19754.30%58%6,7591,5621,149---1019,571
    Fort Whyte  PC  PC 5,44247.86%1,23010.82%67%1,7165,4424,212----11,370
    Interlake-Gimli  PC  PC 5,12649.63%6826.60%67%4,4445,126367391---10,328
    Keewatinook  NDP  NDP 1,70258.63%67123.11%39%1,7021,031170----2,903
    Kildonan-River East  PC  NDP 5,72849.35%7786.70%64%5,7284,950930----11,608
    Kirkfield Park  PC  NDP 5,16944.68%6875.94%64%5,1694,4821,710-209--11,570
    La Verendrye  PC  PC 4,58560.99%3,02840.28%58%1,5574,585640736---7,518
    Lac du Bonnet  PC  PC 5,40259.96%2,29925.52%58%3,1035,402--504--9,009
    Lagimodière  PC  NDP 5,67446.22%1030.84%63%5,6745,5711,030----12,275
    Lakeside  PC  PC 6,14361.66%3,43734.50%64%2,7066,1431,114----9,963
    McPhillips  PC  NDP 4,90647.32%3333.21%54%4,9064,573888----10,367
    Midland  PC  PC 6,24069.40%4,22546.99%58%2,0156,240737----8,992
    Morden-Winkler  PC  PC 5,64874.39%3,96952.28%47%1,6795,648265----7,592
    Notre Dame  NDP  NDP 3,87175.68%3,13461.27%38%3,871737319-107-815,115
    Point Douglas  NDP  NDP 3,34773.46%2,60857.24%32%3,347739470----4,556
    Portage la Prairie  PC  PC 3,80859.57%1,89129.58%47%1,9173,808301-366--6,392
    Radisson  PC  NDP 5,94452.29%1,14110.04%57%5,9444,803621----11,368
    Red River North  PC  PC 5,93360.34%2,03420.69%61%3,8995,933-----9,832
    Riding Mountain  PC  PC 5,52263.25%2,68830.79%57%2,8345,522374----8,730
    Riel  PC  NDP 6,15554.60%1,87216.61%65%6,1554,283834----11,272
    River Heights  Lib  NDP 5,04244.20%6365.58%67%5,0421,8054,406-155--11,408
    Roblin  PC  PC 6,08249.70%1,1149.10%62%4,9686,0821,188----12,238
    Rossmere  PC  NDP 4,85650.69%7928.27%60%4,8564,064478-181--9,579
    Seine River  PC  NDP 5,39552.22%1,43113.85%63%5,3953,964842--130-10,331
    Selkirk  PC  PC 4,96352.47%4674.94%56%4,4964,963-----9,459
    Southdale  PC  NDP 5,56548.48%1,64514.33%64%5,5653,9201,860--135-11,480
    Springfield-Ritchot  PC  PC 5,74654.91%1,92318.38%59%3,8235,746896----10,465
    Spruce Woods  PC  PC 4,99861.81%3,05637.79%58%1,9424,9981,146----8,086
    St. Boniface  Lib  NDP 5,56553.25%2,14920.56%60%5,5651,3963,416---7310,450
    St. James  NDP  NDP 5,44464.81%3,11937.13%54%5,4442,325631----8,400
    St. Johns  NDP  NDP 4,25260.74%3,13544.79%47%4,2521,097534--1,117-7,000
    St. Vital  NDP  NDP 5,19160.09%2,65730.76%56%5,1912,534913----8,638
    Steinbach  PC  PC 5,86874.32%4,64658.84%47%1,2225,868801-5--7,896
    Swan River  PC  PC 4,79863.02%2,37731.22%59%2,4214,798-394---7,613
    The Maples  NDP  NDP 3,78855.46%2,20832.33%49%3,7881,5801,462----6,830
    The Pas-Kameesak  NDP  NDP 3,49867.15%2,00038.40%58%3,4981,498213----5,209
    Thompson  NDP  NDP 2,80067.91%1,59738.73%35%2,8001,203120----4,123
    Transcona  NDP  NDP 5,23258.51%2,06223.06%51%5,2323,170540----8,942
    Turtle Mountain  PC  PC 4,74955.23%2,80932.67%55%1,9404,7494201,489---8,598
    Tuxedo  PC  PC 3,99140.16%2632.65%60%3,7283,9912,219----9,938
    Tyndall Park  Lib  Lib 4,01754.97%2,11728.97%49%1,9001,3904,017----7,307
    Union Station  NDP  NDP 3,68170.67%2,77253.22%41%3,681909619----5,209
    Waverley  PC  NDP 4,04644.15%1191.30%54%4,0463,927995-197--9,165
    Wolseley  NDP  NDP 6,54475.30%5,68565.42%53%6,544859587-548-1528,690
    1. sorted as per results summary
    2. including rejected and declined ballots
      = open seat
      = turnout is above provincial average
      = winning candidate was in previous Legislature
      = other incumbents renominated

    Results by riding

    Riding Outgoing MLA Elected MLA
    Agassiz   Eileen Clarke   Jodie Byram
    Assiniboia   Scott Johnston   Nellie Kennedy
    Borderland   Josh Guenter   Josh Guenter
    Brandon East   Len Isleifson   Glen Simard
    Brandon West   Reg Helwer   Wayne Balcaen
    Burrows   Diljeet Brar   Diljeet Brar
    Concordia   Matt Wiebe   Matt Wiebe
    Dauphin   Brad Michaleski   Ron Kostyshyn
    Dawson Trail   Bob Lagassé   Bob Lagassé
    Elmwood   Jim Maloway   Jim Maloway
    Flin Flon   Tom Lindsey   Tom Lindsey
    Fort Garry   Mark Wasyliw   Mark Wasyliw
    Fort Richmond   Sarah Guillemard   Jennifer Chen
    Fort Rouge   Wab Kinew   Wab Kinew
    Fort Whyte   Obby Khan   Obby Khan
    Interlake-Gimli   Derek Johnson   Derek Johnson
    Keewatinook   Ian Bushie   Ian Bushie
    Kildonan-River East   Cathy Cox   Rachelle Schott
    Kirkfield Park   Kevin Klein   Logan Oxenham
    La Verendrye   Dennis Smook   Konrad Narth
    Lac du Bonnet   Wayne Ewasko   Wayne Ewasko
    Lagimodière   Andrew Smith   Tyler Blashko
    Lakeside   Ralph Eichler   Trevor King
    McPhillips   Shannon Martin   Jasdeep Devgan
    Midland   Blaine Pedersen   Lauren Stone
    Morden-Winkler   Cameron Friesen   Carrie Hiebert
    Notre Dame   Malaya Marcelino   Malaya Marcelino
    Point Douglas   Bernadette Smith   Bernadette Smith
    Portage la Prairie   Ian Wishart   Jeff Bereza
    Radisson   James Teitsma   Jelynn Dela Cruz
    Red River North   Jeff Wharton   Jeff Wharton
    Riding Mountain   Greg Nesbitt   Greg Nesbitt
    Riel   Rochelle Squires   Mike Moyes
    River Heights   Jon Gerrard   Mike Moroz
    Roblin   Myrna Driedger   Kathleen Cook
    Rossmere   Andrew Micklefield   Tracy Schmidt
    Seine River   Janice Morley-Lecomte   Billie Cross
    Selkirk   Alan Lagimodiere   Richard Perchotte
    Southdale   Audrey Gordon   Renée Cable
    Springfield-Ritchot   Ron Schuler   Ron Schuler
    Spruce Woods   Cliff Cullen   Grant Jackson
    St. Boniface   Dougald Lamont   Robert Loiselle
    St. James   Adrien Sala   Adrien Sala
    St. Johns   Nahanni Fontaine   Nahanni Fontaine
    St. Vital   Jamie Moses   Jamie Moses
    Steinbach   Kelvin Goertzen   Kelvin Goertzen
    Swan River   Rick Wowchuk   Rick Wowchuk
    The Maples   Mintu Sandhu   Mintu Sandhu
    The Pas-Kameesak   Amanda Lathlin   Amanda Lathlin
    Thompson   Eric Redhead   Eric Redhead
    Transcona   Nello Altomare   Nello Altomare
    Turtle Mountain   Doyle Piwniuk   Doyle Piwniuk
    Tuxedo   Heather Stefanson   Heather Stefanson
    Tyndall Park   Cindy Lamoureux   Cindy Lamoureux
    Union Station   Uzoma Asagwara   Uzoma Asagwara
    Waverley   Jon Reyes   David Pankratz
    Wolseley   Lisa Naylor   Lisa Naylor

    Analysis

    Party candidates in 2nd place
    Party in 1st placeParty in 2nd placeTotal
    NDPPCLibInd
    New Democratic 303134
    Progressive Conservative 21122
    Liberal 11
    Total 22304157
      Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party
      Parties1st2nd3rd4th5th
       New Democratic 34221
       Progressive Conservative 22305
       Liberal 14386
       Independent 12
       Keystone 5
       Green 49
       Communist 23
      Resulting composition of the 43rd Manitoba Legislature
      SourceParty
      NDP PC Lib Total
      Seats retainedIncumbents returned 1812131
      Open seats held 1010
      Seats changing handsIncumbents defeated 1212
      Open seats gained 44
      Total 3422157

      Aftermath

      Liberal leader Dougald Lamont resigned on election night following a dismal performance for his party. Both he and Jon Gerrard lost their seats to NDP challengers, leaving Cindy Lamoureux as the sole Liberal in the legislative assembly.[41] Outgoing premier and PC leader Heather Stefanson also announced her resignation as party leader on election night.

      Defeated MLAs

      Constituency Party Name Year elected Seat held by party since Defeated by Party
      St. Boniface  Liberal Dougald Lamont 2018 b.e 2018 b.e Robert Loiselle  New Democratic
      River Heights  Liberal Jon Gerrard 1999 1999 Mike Moroz  New Democratic
      Southdale  Progressive Conservative Audrey Gordon 2019 2016 Renée Cable  New Democratic
      Kirkfield Park  Progressive Conservative Kevin Klein 2022 b.e 2016 Logan Oxenham  New Democratic
      Radisson  Progressive Conservative James Teitsma 2016 2016 Jelynn Dela Cruz  New Democratic
      Seine River  Progressive Conservative Janice Morley-Lecomte 2016 2016 Billie Cross  New Democratic
      Waverley  Progressive Conservative Jon Reyes 2016 2019 (District Created) David Pankratz  New Democratic
      Brandon East  Progressive Conservative Len Isleifson 2016 2016 Glen Simard  New Democratic
      Riel  Progressive Conservative Rochelle Squires 2016 2016 Mike Moyes  New Democratic
      Lagimodière  Progressive Conservative Andrew Smith 2016 2019 (District Created) Tyler Blashko  New Democratic
      Assiniboia  Progressive Conservative Scott Johnston 2016 2016 Nellie Kennedy  New Democratic
      Rossmere  Progressive Conservative Andrew Micklefield 2016 2016 Tracy Schmidt  New Democratic

      Open seats

      Constituency Party Candidate Incumbent retiring from the legislature Won by Party
      Fort Richmond  Progressive Conservative Paramjit Shahi Sarah Guillemard[24] Jennifer Chen  New Democratic
      Kildonan-River East  Progressive Conservative Alana Vannahme Cathy Cox[25] Rachelle Schott  New Democratic
      McPhillips  Progressive Conservative Sheilah Restall Shannon Martin Jasdeep Devgan  New Democratic
      Dauphin  Progressive Conservative Gord Wood Brad Michaleski Ron Kostyshyn  New Democratic

      Opinion polls

      Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
      Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election
      Polling firm Dates conducted Source PC NDP Liberal Green Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
      Forum Research Oct 2, 2023 [p 1] 41.3% 44.7% 12.3% 0.9% 0.8% 3.3% 910 IVR 3.4%
      Research Co. Sep 30–Oct 2, 2023 [p 2] 39% 48% 10% 2% 1% 4% 600 Online 9%
      Mainstreet Research Sep 28–Oct 1, 2023 [p 3] 41% 47% 10% 1% 1% 3.7% 698 Smart IVR 6%
      Sovereign North Strategies Sep 17–19, 2023 [p 4] 42.5% 39.4% 15.9% 2.2% N/A 3.9% 852 Telephone 3.1%
      Angus Reid Sep 13–19, 2023 [p 5] 41% 47% 9% 2% 1% 4% 990 Online 6%
      Probe Research Sep 7–18, 2023 [p 6] 38% 49% 9% 2% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Online 11%
      Research Co. Sep 15–17, 2023 [p 7] 39% 41% 14% 3% 2% 4% 600 Online 2%
      Counsel Public Affairs Sep 11–16, 2023 [p 8] 39% 44% 13% 2% 2% 4% 505 Online 5%
      Mainstreet Research Aug 28Sep 2, 2023 [p 9] 43% 42% 9% 3% 3% 4% 601 Smart IVR 1%
      Mainstreet Research Jul 26–28, 2023 [p 10] 42% 38% 12% 3% 4% 4% 597 Smart IVR 4%
      Probe Research May 31Jun 13, 2023 [p 11] 41% 41% 10% 5% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Online Tie
      Angus Reid May 30Jun 3, 2023 [p 12] 39% 44% 10% 4% 4% 4% 515 Online 5%
      March 26, 2023Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba
      Probe Research Mar 8–20, 2023 [p 13] 38% 44% 9% 4% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Online 6%
      Mainstreet Research Jan 24–26, 2023 [p 14] 36.2% 41.5% 14.6% 5.1% 2.1% 4.3% 514 Smart IVR 5.3%
      Probe Research Nov 22Dec 5, 2022 [p 15] 35% 46% 13% 3% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone/Online 11%
      Probe Research Sep 8–18, 2022 [p 16] 37% 44% 15% 3% 1% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
      Angus Reid Jun 7–13, 2022 [p 17] 38% 40% 13% 3% 6% 5% 468 Online 2%
      Probe Research Jun 1–12, 2022 [p 18] 35% 45% 13% 3% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
      Probe Research Mar 9–21, 2022 [p 19] 34% 44% 15% 2% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
      Angus Reid Mar 10–15, 2022 [p 20][p 21] 39% 40% 14% 3% 5% 4% 475 Online 1%
      Angus Reid Jan 7–12, 2022 [p 22] 36% 42% 12% 3% 6% 5% 407 Online 6%
      Probe Research Nov 23Dec 5, 2021 [p 23] 37% 42% 12% 4% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 5%
      October 30, 2021Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
      Innovative Research Sep 24Oct 5, 2021 [p 24] 41% 32% 18% 5% 3% N/A 678 Online 9%
      Angus Reid Sep 29Oct 3, 2021 [p 25] 38% 43% 11% 4% 5% N/A 435 Online 5%
      Probe Research Sep 7–20, 2021 [p 26] 35% 42% 12% 3% 8% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
      Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2021 [p 27] 29% 47% 14% 5% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 18%
      Angus Reid Jun 2–7, 2021 [p 28] 39% 42% 11% 4% 4% 4.0% 504 Online 3%
      Probe Research Mar 10–26, 2021 [p 29] 36% 42% 11% 7% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
      Probe Research Nov 24Dec 4, 2020 [p 30] 37% 41% 14% 6% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 4%
      Angus Reid Nov 24–30, 2020 [p 31] 39% 40% 12% 5% 4% 4.8% 420 Online 1%
      Probe Research Sep 8–17, 2020 [p 32] 43% 34% 16% 5% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 9%
      EKOS Jul 24 – Aug 26, 2020 [p 33] 44% 31% 12% 9% 4% 2.9% 1,154 HD-IVR 13%
      EKOS Jun 16 – Jul 23, 2020 [p 34] 43% 27% 18% 7% 5% 2.4% 1,691 HD-IVR 16%
      Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2020 [p 35] 38% 36% 18% 7% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 2%
      Innovative Research May 29Jun 3, 2020 [p 36] 38% 26% 26% 10% N/A N/A 200 Online 12%
      Probe Research Mar 10–24, 2020 [p 37] 43% 33% 14% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
      Probe Research Nov 27Dec 10, 2019 [p 38] 42% 36% 13% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
      2019 general election September 10, 2019 47.1% 31.4% 14.5% 6.4% 0.6% 15.7%
      Polling firm Dates conducted Source Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
      PC NDP Liberal Green

      See also

      Notes

        References

        1. Elections Act, CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
        2. CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
        3. Petz, Sarah (August 11, 2021). "Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister stepping down before next election". CBC News. Archived from the original on August 30, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
        4. Froese, Ian (October 30, 2021). "Heather Stefanson chosen as Manitoba's 1st female premier by a slim margin". CBC News. Archived from the original on October 30, 2021. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
        5. "Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign". September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
        6. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 23, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
        7. "NDP's Kinew promises to boost health care, balance the budget". October 16, 2022. Archived from the original on October 1, 2023. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
        8. "Economy, health care continue to draw focus of Manitoba election campaign". Winnipeg. September 14, 2023. Archived from the original on September 26, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        9. "Manitoba's election campaign will focus on the economy and health care Thursday – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on September 25, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        10. "Manitoba New Democrats promise to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on October 1, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
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        26. The Canadian Press, "Former Manitoba cabinet minister Ralph Eichler won't seek re-election" Archived October 4, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. Winnipeg Free Press, October 4, 2022.
        27. Jordan Ross, "Smook to retire from legislature" Archived October 19, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. Winnipeg Free Press, October 17, 2022.
        28. Steve Lambert, The Canadian Press (February 22, 2023). "Shannon Martin is the latest Manitoba Tory to opt out of upcoming election". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on February 23, 2023. Retrieved February 23, 2023.
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        30. Michael Blume, "Portage MLA Ian Wishart won't be running in next election" Archived December 29, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. Portage Online, December 16, 2022.
        31. Ian Froese, "Veteran Tory MLA Myrna Driedger won't run in 2023 Manitoba election" Archived January 4, 2023, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, January 4, 2023.
        32. Bartley Kives, "Deputy premier Cliff Cullen won't seek another term in Manitoba legislature" Archived December 29, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, December 29, 2022.
        33. Ian Froese, "Indigenous reconciliation minister Alan Lagimodiere won't seek re-election in 2023" Archived January 4, 2023, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, January 3, 2023.
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