2022 United States Senate election in Washington

The 2022 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Incumbent Senator Patty Murray was first elected in 1992 with 54% of the vote to succeed retiring fellow Democrat Brock Adams; Murray most recently won re-election to a fifth term in 2016 with 59% of the vote.[1]

2022 United States Senate election in Washington

November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08)
 
Candidate Patty Murray Tiffany Smiley
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,741,827 1,299,322
Percentage 57.2% 42.6%

Murray:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Smiley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No data

U.S. senator before election

Patty Murray
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Patty Murray
Democratic

Because Washington has a blanket primary system, parties did not nominate their own candidates to run in the general election. Instead, every candidate appeared on the same ballot, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two candidates in the August 2 nonpartisan blanket primary then advanced to the general election. Murray received 52.2% of the primary vote and advanced to face Republican Tiffany Smiley.[2]

Although Washington has been a reliably blue state for over 30 years, many polls showed that Murray only had a narrow lead over Smiley, and some polls had Smiley within the margin of error. A couple of late polls had the two candidates tied; such polls caused most pundits to downgrade their forecast from "safe Democratic" to "likely Democratic", and Republicans believed that Smiley had a chance of pulling off an upset.[3] Despite the predictions of a close race, Murray defeated Smiley and won re-election to a sixth term by a 14.5-point margin. Although this was a significantly larger margin of victory for Murray than what was expected, it was fairly consistent with Washington's partisan lean.[4] Smiley conceded the following day. Despite her loss, she made significant gains in several counties, particularly in the Southwestern and Eastern parts of the state.[5]

Following the election, Murray was elected president pro tempore for the 118th Congress, becoming the first woman to hold the role.[6]

Primary election

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

  • Pano Churchill, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[7]
  • Sam Cusmir[7]
  • Ravin Pierre, aerospace engineer and data scientist[7]
  • Mohammed Said, physician and perennial candidate[7]
  • Bryan Solstin, aerospace engineer and software developer[7]

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

  • John Guenther, state employee[7]
  • Bill Hirt, perennial candidate[7]

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Tiffany Smiley (R)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Results

Blanket primary results by county
  Murray
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Smiley
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Blanket primary election results[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Patty Murray (incumbent) 1,002,811 52.22%
Republican Tiffany Smiley 646,917 33.69%
Trump Republican Leon Lawson 59,134 3.08%
Republican John Guenther 55,426 2.89%
Democratic Ravin Pierre 22,172 1.15%
JFK Republican Dave Saulibio 19,341 1.01%
Independent Naz Paul 18,858 0.98%
Republican Bill Hirt 15,276 0.80%
Democratic Mohammad Hassan Said 13,995 0.73%
Socialist Workers Henry Clay Dennison 13,901 0.72%
Democratic Dr Pano Churchill 11,859 0.62%
Democratic Bryan Solstin 9,627 0.50%
Independent Charlie (Chuck) Jackson 8,604 0.45%
Independent Jon Butler 5,413 0.28%
Independent Thor Amundson 5,133 0.27%
No party preference Martin D. Hash 4,725 0.25%
No party preference Dan Phan Doan 3,049 0.16%
Democratic Sam Cusmir 2,688 0.14%
Write-in 1,511 0.08%
Total votes 1,920,440 100.0%

General election

Debates

Two debates were held, the first on October 23 at Gonzaga University.[40] The second was town hall-style forum on October 30 in the KIRO-TV studio in Seattle.[41]

Murray's campaign declined an invitation to a scheduled debate on October 25 at Seattle University.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[42] Likely D October 18, 2022
Inside Elections[43] Likely D July 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[44] Likely D October 19, 2022
Politico[45] Lean D November 3, 2022
RCP[46] Tossup October 30, 2022
Fox News[47] Likely D November 1, 2022
DDHQ[48] Likely D September 12, 2022
538[49] Likely D October 19, 2022
The Economist[50] Likely D September 7, 2022

Endorsements

Tiffany Smiley (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Governors
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Patty
Murray (D)
Tiffany
Smiley (R)
Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
Real Clear Politics October 14 – October 31, 2022 November 3, 2022 49.3% 46.3% 4.4% Murray +3.0
FiveThirtyEight May 25, 2021 – November 8, 2022 November 7, 2022 49.6% 44.9% 6.5% Murray +4.7
270ToWin October 21 – November 1, 2022 November 7, 2022 49.5% 44.5% 6.0% Murray +4.3
Average 49.5% 45.2% 5.3% Murray +4.3
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Patty
Murray (D)
Tiffany
Smiley (R)
Other Undecided
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 1] November 3–5, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 47% 5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[upper-alpha 2] October 31, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 46% 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 25–28, 2022 1,207 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 48% 2%
Triton Polling & Research[upper-alpha 3] October 26–27, 2022 506 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 45% 4%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 1] October 20–22, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 8%
KAConsulting (R)[upper-alpha 4] October 20–22, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 42% 4%[lower-alpha 3] 6%
co/efficient (R) October 19–20, 2022 1,181 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 45% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] October 19–20, 2022 782 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 42% 6%
SurveyUSA October 14–19, 2022 589 (LV) ± 5.0% 49% 41% 10%
Civiqs October 15–18, 2022 698 (LV) ± 4.5% 55% 41% 3%[lower-alpha 4] 2%
Emerson College September 29 – October 1, 2022 782 (LV) ± 3.4% 51% 42% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D) September 27–28, 2022 770 (V) ± 3.5% 52% 40% 8%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 6] September 20–27, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% 5%[lower-alpha 5] 6%
Strategies 360 September 22–25, 2022 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 50% 36% 14%
370 (LV) ± 5.1% 52% 40% 8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 21–24, 2022 1,091 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 47% 5%
Elway Research September 12–15, 2022 403 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 37% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D) September 6–7, 2022 620 (V) ± 3.0% 48% 39% 13%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 1] September 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 44% 8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 30 – September 1, 2022 1,087 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 46% 5%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) August 15–17, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 43% 8%
Elway Research July 7–11, 2022 400 (RV) ± 4.5% 53% 33% 15%
SurveyUSA July 6–10, 2022 596 (LV) ± 5.0% 51% 33% 16%
The Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 7] June 14–19, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 43% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] June 1–2, 2022 1,039 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 40% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] February 17–18, 2022 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 41% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] November 10–11, 2021 909 (LV) ± 3.3% 50% 37% 13%
SurveyUSA October 25–28, 2021 542 (RV) ± 5.2% 49% 31% 20%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] May 25–26, 2021 992 (LV) ± 3.1% 53% 37% 10%
Hypothetical polling
Patty Murray vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Patty
Murray (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Elway Research December 26–28, 2021 400 (RV) ± 5.0% 42% 39% 19%
Patty Murray vs. generic opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Patty
Murray (D)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R) August 15–17, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 44% 12%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Washington[89]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Patty Murray (incumbent) 1,741,827 57.15% -1.68%
Republican Tiffany Smiley 1,299,322 42.63% +1.77%
Write-in 6,751 0.22% -0.09%
Total votes 3,047,900 100.0%
Democratic hold

Results by county

County Patty Murray

Democratic

Tiffany Smiley

Republican

Write-In Total
% # % # % #
Adams 23.46% 969 76.25% 3,150 0.29% 12 4,131
Asotin 35.27% 3,181 64.58% 5,824 0.14% 13 9,018
Benton 33.68% 25,513 66.15% 50,108 0.17% 128 75,749
Chelan 41.94% 14,373 57.87% 19,833 0.20% 67 34,273
Clallam 51.60% 20,784 48.17% 19,401 0.23% 94 40,279
Clark 51.09% 105,058 48.76% 100,260 0.14% 298 205,616
Columbia 27.17% 592 72.28% 1,575 0.55% 12 2,179
Cowlitz 38.80% 17,439 61.07% 27,446 0.13% 57 44,942
Douglas 32.73% 5,275 67.05% 10,086 0.22% 36 16,117
Ferry 31.04% 1,060 68.76% 2,348 0.20% 7 3,415
Franklin 31.61% 7,022 68.31% 15,174 0.08% 18 22,214
Garfield 23.85% 307 75.91% 977 0.23% 3 1,287
Grant 26.83% 7,221 73.03% 19,655 0.13% 36 26,912
Grays Harbor 46.26% 13,600 53.46% 15,718 0.28% 81 29,399
Island 55.00% 23,680 44.77% 19,275 0.24% 102 43,057
Jefferson 70.62% 14,970 29.18% 6,185 0.21% 44 21,199
King 75.05% 668,692 24.73% 220,307 0.22% 1,943 890,942
Kitsap 57.51% 70,939 42.26% 52,134 0.23% 276 123,351
Kittitas 39.99% 8,318 59.84% 12,446 0.16% 34 20,798
Klickitat 41.89% 4,798 57.96% 6,639 0.16% 18 11,455
Lewis 31.29% 11,263 68.50% 24,654 0.21% 75 35,992
Lincoln 23.12% 1,423 76.63% 4,716 0.24% 15 6,154
Mason 46.74% 13,777 52.97% 15,612 0.29% 86 29,475
Okanogan 40.01% 6,644 59.78% 9,926 0.20% 34 16,605
Pacific 48.32% 5,771 51.39% 6,137 0.29% 35 11,943
Pend Oreille 29.94% 2,032 69.82% 4,739 0.24% 16 6,787
Pierce 52.69% 175,164 47.02% 156,331 0.29% 959 332,454
San Juan 72.88% 8,254 26.97% 3,055 0.15% 17 11,326
Skagit 51.57% 29,316 48.19% 27,394 0.24% 139 56,849
Skamania 42.07% 2,620 57.80% 3,599 0.13% 8 6,227
Snohomish 57.52% 184,430 42.21% 135,339 0.27% 864 320,633
Spokane 45.46% 100,719 54.34% 120,369 0.20% 443 221,531
Stevens 26.50% 6,073 73.31% 16,803 0.19% 43 22,919
Thurston 58.04% 73,189 41.69% 52,570 0.28% 347 126,106
Wahkiakum 39.26% 1,007 60.47% 1,551 0.27% 7 2,565
Walla Walla 41.38% 10,039 58.50% 14,192 0.12% 29 24,260
Whatcom 59.32% 65,950 40.51% 45,038 0.16% 182 111,170
Whitman 49.81% 7,824 49.96% 7,848 0.22% 35 15,707
Yakima 35.86% 22,541 63.93% 40,188 0.22% 136 62,865
Total 57.15% 1,741,827 42.63% 1,299,322 0.22 6,751 3,047,900

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Murray won 7 of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining 3 going to Smiley, including one that elected a Democrat.[90]

District Murray Smiley Representative
1st 62% 37% Suzan DelBene
2nd 59% 41% Rick Larsen
3rd 46% 54% Jaime Herrera Beutler (117th Congress)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (118th Congress)
4th 34% 66% Dan Newhouse
5th 42% 58% Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th 57% 43% Derek Kilmer
7th 87% 13% Pramila Jayapal
8th 51% 49% Kim Schrier
9th 71% 29% Adam Smith
10th 57% 43% Marilyn Strickland

See also

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. "Other/Refused" with 4%
  4. "Someone else" with 3%
  5. "Someone else" with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll conducted for the NRSC and the Evergreen Principles PAC, which supports Smiley.
  2. This poll was sponsored by American Greatness, a conservative news outlet
  3. Poll conducted for KHQ-TV.
  4. Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
  5. This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
  6. This poll was sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund
  7. This poll was sponsored by Smiley's campaign

References

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Official campaign websites
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