2014 United States Senate election in Montana

The 2014 United States Senate election in Montana took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2014 United States Senate election in Montana

November 4, 2014
 
Nominee Steve Daines Amanda Curtis[lower-alpha 1]
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 213,709 148,184
Percentage 57.8% 40.1%

County results
Daines:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Curtis:      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

John Walsh
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Steve Daines
Republican

Democratic Senator Max Baucus, who had announced he would retire and not seek a seventh term, resigned in February 2014 in order to accept an appointment as United States Ambassador to China under President Barack Obama. Democrat John Walsh, the Lieutenant Governor of Montana, who was already running for Baucus' seat when Baucus was named to the ambassadorship, was appointed to replace Baucus by Governor Steve Bullock.[1]

Walsh won the Democratic primary on June 3 and ran for a first full term in office, but withdrew from the race on August 7, 2014 due to allegations that he had plagiarized a term paper while attending the Army War College.[2] Democrats selected Amanda Curtis, a state representative from Butte, to replace Walsh as the party's nominee at a convention in Helena on August 16.[3] Steve Daines, the incumbent U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district, easily won the Republican nomination.

Daines defeated Curtis 57.9% to 40.0%, while Libertarian Roger Roots won 2.2%. Daines and Arkansas' Tom Cotton became just the 18th and 19th U.S. House freshmen to win U.S. Senate races over the last 100 years, and just the third and fourth over the last 40 years.[4] He became the first Republican to win this Senate seat in 107 years or since 1907.

Democratic primary

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

John Walsh

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Walsh
Dirk
Adams
John
Bohlinger
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 381 ± 5% 39% 3% 31% 27%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 519 ± 4.3% 23% 2% 23% 52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus
Brian
Schweitzer
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 333 ± 5.4% 34% 51% 14%
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 573 ± 4.1% 35% 51% 14%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 332 ± 5.4% 37% 48% 15%
Public Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012 201 ± 5.4% 36% 40% 24%
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 371 ± 5.1% 35% 54% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau
Brian
Schweitzer
Other Undecided
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013 165 ± 7.63% 14% 78% 8%

Results

Democratic primary results[33]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Walsh (incumbent) 48,665 64.04%
Democratic John Bohlinger 17,187 22.62%
Democratic Dirk Adams 10,139 13.34%
Total votes 75,991 100.00%

Democratic convention

Because Walsh withdrew, a nominating convention was held to pick a new nominee prior to August 20.[34] The state party called a convention for August 16, and voting delegates were members of the State Central Committee, specifically: "one chair and one vice chair from each existing county central committee; one state committeeman and one state committeewoman from each county central committee; all voting members of the State Party Executive Board; the president of each chartered organization of the Montana Democratic Party; Montana State House leadership, and Montana State Senate leaders, and all Democrats currently holding statewide or federal office."[35]

Candidates

Momentary buzz was created by a movement to draft actor Jeff Bridges for the nomination, with over 1,000 people signing a petition on Change.org and a Twitter account, DudeSenator, being created online. Bridges, who lives part-time and owns property in the Paradise Valley south of Livingston, Montana, declined the offer on the Howard Stern show, noting the disapproval of his wife. Other news outlets noted that he also was not registered to vote in Montana.[36][37]

Potential

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Amanda Curtis

Elected officials

Organizations

Results

Democratic convention results[62]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Amanda Curtis 82 64.0%
Democratic Dirk Adams 46 36.0%
Total votes 128 100.0%

Republican primary

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Steve Daines

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Daines
Champ
Edmunds
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 469 ± 4.5% 66% 7% 27%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Daines
Champ
Edmunds
Marc
Racicot
Corey
Stapleton
Undecided
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013 472 ± 4.51% 26% 3% 42% 6% 22%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 340 ± 5.3% 28% 5% 47% 5% 14%

Results

Republican primary results[33]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve Daines 110,565 83.37%
Republican Susan Cundiff 11,909 8.98%
Republican Champ Edmunds 10,151 7.65%
Total votes 132,625 100.00%

Libertarian nomination

Declared

Independents

Declined

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[85] Solid R (flip) November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[86] Safe R (flip) November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[87] Safe R (flip) November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[88] Safe R (flip) November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Daines (R)
Amanda
Curtis (D)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports August 18–19, 2014 750 ± 4% 55% 35% 2% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 684 ± 5% 53% 35% 1% 11%
Gravis Marketing September 29–30, 2014 535 ± 4% 54% 41% 5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 549 ± 5% 55% 34% 0% 10%
The MSU-Billings Poll October 6–11, 2014 410 ± 5% 47% 31% 2%[89] 21%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 497 ± 6% 56% 38% 0% 6%
Gravis Marketing October 23–24, 2014 604 ± 4% 53% 39% 8%
Hypothetical polling
With Adams
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dirk
Adams (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 519 ± 4.3% 20% 44% 36%
with Baucus
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 44% 49% 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 47% 37% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 46% 43% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 42% 47% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 45% 38% 16%
With Bohlinger
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Bohlinger (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 952 ± 3.2% 36% 51% 13%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 519 ± 4.3% 32% 43% 25%
Harper Polling April 7–8, 2014 604 ± 4.3% 33% 44% 23%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Bohlinger (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 952 ± 3.2% 37% 39% 24%
With Juneau
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 38% 48% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 41% 34% 25%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 37% 52% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 42% 38% 21%
With Keenan
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 39% 49% 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 41% 36% 23%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 40% 45% 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 38% 50% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 40% 40% 20%
With Lindeen
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 37% 49% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 39% 34% 26%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 35% 52% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 39% 37% 24%
With Schweitzer
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 48% 45% 7%
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013 771 ± 3.53% 50% 40% 10%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 48% 45% 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 52% 37% 12%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 52% 37% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 49% 43% 8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 45% 46% 9%
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013 771 ± 3.53% 47% 43% 10%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 46% 47% 6%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 49% 39% 13%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 52% 38% 10%
With Walsh
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Walsh (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 952 ± 3.2% 35% 52% 13%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 519 ± 4.3% 29% 43% 28%
Rasmussen Reports March 17–18, 2014 750 ± 4% 37% 51% 4% 9%
Magellan Strategies April 1–2, 2014 2,490 ± 1.96% 36% 49% 9%[90] 6%
Harper Polling April 7–8, 2014 604 ± 4.3% 35% 42% 23%
Hickman Analytics April 24–30, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 37% 49% 14%
Vox Populi Polling May 21–22, 2014 806 ± 3.5% 33% 56% 11%
Magellan Strategies June 4–5, 2014 761 ± 3.57% 39% 55% 6%
Rasmussen Reports June 9–10, 2014 750 ± 4% 35% 53% 3% 9%
Public Policy Polling July 17–18, 2014 574 ± 4.1% 39% 46% 15%
Gravis Marketing July 20–22, 2014 741 ± 4% 41% 45% 6%[89] 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 838 ± 3.6% 39% 55% 2% 4%
Gravis Marketing July 24, 2014 781 ± 3.5% 38% 45% 9%[89] 8%
Vox Populi Polling August 3–4, 2014 798 ± 3.5% 34% 47% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Walsh (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 952 ± 3.2% 36% 38% 26%

Results

United States Senate election in Montana, 2014[91]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Steve Daines 213,709 57.79% +30.71%
Democratic Amanda Curtis 148,184 40.07% -32.85%
Libertarian Roger Roots 7,933 2.14% N/A
Total votes 369,826 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

  1. Replaced John Walsh.
  1. Camia, Catalina (February 7, 2014). "Montana gov taps John Walsh to replace Baucus in Senate". USA Today. Retrieved February 7, 2014.
  2. Johnson, Charles (August 7, 2014). "Walsh drops out of U.S. Senate race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved August 7, 2014.
  3. "Amanda Curtis wins Montana Democratic nomination to U.S. Senate". The Missoulian. August 16, 2014. Retrieved August 16, 2014.
  4. Ostermeier, Eric (November 17, 2014). "Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?". Smart Politics.
  5. Dennison, Mike (August 14, 2013). "Wilsall rancher/political unknown says he's running as Democrat for Baucus' Senate seat". Billings Gazette.
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  8. Dennison, Mike (March 8, 2014). "Bohlinger stays in US Senate race". Independent Record. Retrieved March 10, 2014.
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  12. Associated Press (May 17, 2013). "Bullock says 'absolutely not' to Senate race". missoulian.com.
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  41. "Butte's Curtis, other Democrats interested in Walsh seat". The Montana Standard. August 7, 2014. Retrieved August 10, 2014.
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  78. Johnson, Charles S. (October 3, 2013). "Larry Williams running for Senate — unless Daines does". Billings Gazette. Retrieved October 7, 2013.
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  81. Jaffe, Alexandra (December 6, 2013). "Daines gets Tea Party backing in Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved December 11, 2013.
  82. "Rick Santorum and Patriot Voices PAC Announce Endorsements in Four Key U.S. Senate Races". Patriot Voices. April 22, 2014. Retrieved April 25, 2014.
  83. Booze, Alexandra (August 28, 2014). "CCAGW PAC Endorses Rep. Steve Daines for U.S. Senate". Businesswire.come. Retrieved October 26, 2014.
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  86. "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
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  89. Roger Roots (L)
  90. Roger Roots (L) 4%, Other 5%
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