2016 United States presidential election in Utah

The 2016 United States presidential election in Utah was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election which was also held in the other 49 states and in the District of Columbia. Voters were asked to pick 6 electors to be pledged for a candidate in the Electoral College. The two main tickets of the election were the Republican one, consisting of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana Governor Mike Pence, and the Democratic one, consisting of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Utah
November 8, 2016
Turnout57.7% [1]Increase
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Evan McMullin
Party Republican Democratic Independent
Home state New York New York Utah
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Mindy Finn
Electoral vote 6 0 0
Popular vote 515,231 310,676 243,690
Percentage 45.54% 27.46% 21.54%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county

On March 22, 2016,[2] in the presidential primaries, Utah voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican parties' respective nominees for president. The state uses a system of semi-closed primaries, meaning that voters registered with a specific party can vote in that party's primary, while voters who are unaffiliated can vote in the primary of one party of their choosing. Utah was won by Trump, who won the state with 45.5 percent of the vote, the lowest percentage for any Republican since George H. W. Bush in 1992. Clinton received 27.5 percent of the vote, and Republican-turned-independent candidate Evan McMullin received 21.5 percent.[3]

Trump's 18.08 point margin was the closest a Democrat has come to winning Utah since 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson won by 9.73%.[lower-alpha 1] However, this was due to McMullin's strong third-party showing limiting Trump to under 50% of the vote; Clinton received a smaller percentage of the popular vote than five other Democrats in this same time period (Barack Obama in 2008, Bill Clinton in 1996, Michael Dukakis in 1988, Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Hubert Humphrey in 1968).

This was one of only three states, the others being Idaho and Vermont, where the Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson did not obtain third place, as McMullin beat him in Idaho and Utah, and write-in votes for Bernie Sanders (who was no longer running for president) beat him in Vermont. Trump also became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Salt Lake or Summit Counties since William McKinley in 1896 and 1900, respectively. The state was one of 11 (along with the District of Columbia) that shifted towards the Democrats, and the largest of any of the state that did so.

Caucus elections
Further information: United States presidential election § Procedure

The incumbent President of the United States, Barack Obama, a Democrat, was first elected president in the 2008 election, running with Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9 percent of the popular vote and 68 percent of the electoral vote,[4][5] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1 percent of the popular vote and 61.7 percent of electoral votes.[6] Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50 percent for most of his second term, it experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year.[7][8] Analyst Nate Cohn noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.[9]

Following his second term, President Obama was not eligible for another reelection. In October 2015, Obama's running-mate and two-term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.[10] With their term expiring on January 20, 2017, the electorate was asked to elect a new president, the 45th president and 48th vice president of the United States, respectively.

Democratic caucus
Main article: 2016 Utah Democratic presidential caucuses

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential caucus ballot:

Utah Democratic caucuses, March 22, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 62,992 79.21% 27 2 29
Hillary Clinton 16,166 20.33% 6 2 8
Others 34 0.04%
Uncommitted 334 0.42% 0 0 0
Total 79,526 100% 33 4 37
Source: Utah Democratic Party

Republican caucus

Three candidates appeared on the Republican presidential caucus ballot:

Utah Republican caucus, March 22, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 132,904 69.46% 40 0 40
John Kasich 31,992 16.72% 0 0 0
Donald Trump 26,434 13.82% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 191,330 100.00% 40 0 40
Source: The Green Papers

General election

Voting History
Main article: Political party strength in Utah

The state of Utah has given its electoral votes to the Republican ticket in every election year since 1968 and only once voted for a Democratic candidate in elections since 1952 (in 1964). The state has a majority of members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church) population, which on the national level voted 78 percent to 21 percent for Mitt Romney in 2012.[11] This very heavily contributed to Mitt Romney winning the state by a margin of 73 percent to 25 percent in the 2012 election. However, Donald Trump's criticism of Romney's faith on the campaign trail in 2016 angered many Republican voters.[12] Polls suggested that Utah might be a strong state for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson as a protest vote against Trump.[13] As a result, Larry Sabato's online election forecaster, Sabato's Crystal Ball, downgraded their rating of the Utah contest from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" on June 23.[14]

Evan McMullin, a conservative independent candidate, had also been viewed by voters in Utah as another alternative, given that it is also his home state. According to one poll released on October 12, Trump and Clinton were seen as virtually tied in Utah at 26%, with McMullin polling at 22%.[15] McMullin's rise was the result of further Republican backlash against Trump following the release of a controversial video from 2005 showing Trump bragging about obscene sexual conduct with women.[16] In a HeatStreet poll conducted from October 15–16, McMullin was polled in second place with 29% of likely voters, coming behind Trump who polled at 30%, and ahead of Clinton who polled at 28 percent.[17] In a poll conducted by Emerson College from October 17–19 with a sample size of 700 people, McMullin placed first with 31 percent ahead of Trump by a 4 percent margin, who had 27 percent of support, while Clinton polled in third at 24 percent.[18] This was the first conducted statewide opinion poll of the 2016 election where a third-party candidate has placed first.

Had McMullin won Utah, he would have become the first nationally nonpartisan candidate since George Washington to win a state in 224 years since Washington's reelection in 1792,[lower-alpha 2] and ultimately the first nonpartisan candidate to win a state west of the Mississippi River.

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[20] Likely R November 6, 2016
CNN[21] Lean R November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[22] Lean R November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[23] Safe R November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[24] Lean R November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] Lean R November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[26] Likely R November 8, 2016
Fox News[27] Lean R November 7, 2016

Polling
Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Utah

Donald Trump won almost every poll, except for one poll showing him tied with Hillary Clinton and Evan McMullin, and another showing McMullin with 31% of the vote, ahead of Trump's 27% and Clinton's 24%. The polling was close due to the large percentage of people polled who were voting for McMullin. The final RCP average showed Trump with 37% to Clinton's 27%, Evan McMullin's 25% and Gary Johnson with 3.5%.[28]

Candidates on the ballot

The following candidates were listed on the ballot:

Candidates not on the ballot

The following were certified by the state as "write-in candidates", which means that votes given to these persons would be counted:

  • Stephen Paul Parks
  • Mike Smith & Daniel White
  • Laurence Kotlikoff & Edward Leamer
  • Tom Hoefling & Steve Schulin
  • David Limbaugh & Bo Gingrich
  • Dustin Baird & Brandon Russell
  • Andrew D. Basiago & Karen D. Kinnison
  • Emidio Soltysik & Angela Nicole Walker
  • Tony Valdivia & Aaron Roy Barriere
  • Cherunda Fox & Roger Kushner
  • Sheila "Samm" Tittle & R. Charles Casper-Kacprowicz
  • Robert L. Buchanan & Jason A. Washington
  • Marshall Schoenke & James Creighton Mitchell Jr.
  • Janet Reid & John E. Reid
  • Jamin Burton & Victor Neves

Results
2016 United States presidential election in Utah[29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		515,231 45.54% -27.08%
Democratic Hillary Clinton
Tim Kaine		 310,676 27.46% +2.77%
Independent Evan McMullin
Nathan Johnson		 243,690 21.54% N/A
Libertarian Gary Johnson
Bill Weld		 39,608 3.50% +2.27%
Independent Jill Stein
Ajamu Baraka		 9,438 0.83% +0.46%
Constitution Darrell Castle
Scott Bradley		 8,032 0.71% +0.43%
Independent American Rocky Giordani
Farley Anderson		 2,752 0.24%
Independent Rocky De La Fuente
Michael Steinberg		 883 0.08%
Independent Monica Moorehead
Lamont Lilly		 544 0.05%
Independent Alyson Kennedy
Osborne Hart		 521 0.05%
Write-in 55 0.00%
Total votes 1,131,430 100.00%

Results by county
County[30] Donald John Trump
Republican		 Hillary Rodham Clinton
Democratic		 David Evan McMullin
Unaffiliated		 Gary Earl Johnson
Libertarian		 Jill Ellen Stein
Unaffiliated		 Darrell Lane Castle
Constitution		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total votes cast
#  % #  % #  % #  % #  % #  % #  % #  %
Beaver 1,838 73.79% 264 10.60% 323 12.97% 36 1.45% 10 0.40% 12 0.48% 8 0.32% 1,515[lower-alpha 3] 60.82% 2,491
Box Elder 12,230 61.97% 2,282 11.56% 4,257 21.57% 591 2.99% 76 0.39% 210 1.06% 89 0.45% 7,973[lower-alpha 3] 40.40% 19,735
Cache 21,139 45.80% 8,563 18.55% 13,695 29.67% 1,630 3.53% 330 0.71% 669 1.45% 131 0.28% 7,444[lower-alpha 3] 16.13% 46,157
Carbon 5,275 66.34% 1,717 21.59% 615 7.73% 191 2.40% 41 0.52% 47 0.59% 66 0.83% 3,558 44.74% 7,952
Daggett 331 69.83% 77 16.24% 44 9.28% 17 3.59% 4 0.84% 1 0.21% 0 0.00% 254 53.59% 474
Davis 62,219 44.95% 28,776 20.79% 39,735 28.71% 5,390 3.89% 864 0.62% 883 0.64% 544 0.39% 22,484[lower-alpha 3] 16.24% 138,411
Duchesne 5,508 79.34% 500 7.20% 730 10.52% 107 1.54% 18 0.26% 68 0.98% 11 0.16% 4,778[lower-alpha 3] 68.83% 6,942
Emery 3,425 79.86% 380 8.86% 362 8.44% 71 1.66% 3 0.07% 15 0.35% 33 0.77% 3,045 71.00% 4,289
Garfield 1,606 68.52% 358 15.27% 286 12.20% 61 2.60% 16 0.68% 3 0.13% 14 0.60% 1,248 53.24% 2,344
Grand 1,975 43.57% 1,960 43.24% 281 6.20% 180 3.97% 109 2.40% 10 0.22% 18 0.40% 15 0.33% 4,533
Iron 11,561 65.49% 2,450 13.88% 2,752 15.59% 540 3.06% 102 0.58% 173 0.98% 76 0.43% 8,809[lower-alpha 3] 49.90% 17,654
Juab 2,827 67.68% 442 10.58% 762 18.24% 72 1.72% 14 0.34% 44 1.05% 16 0.38% 2,065[lower-alpha 3] 49.44% 4,177
Kane 2,265 64.62% 741 21.14% 352 10.04% 86 2.45% 31 0.88% 15 0.43% 15 0.43% 1,524 43.48% 3,505
Millard 3,860 73.64% 431 8.22% 719 13.72% 108 2.06% 6 0.11% 99 1.89% 19 0.36% 3,141[lower-alpha 3] 59.92% 5,242
Morgan 3,188 61.40% 577 11.11% 1,198 23.07% 142 2.73% 11 0.21% 68 1.31% 8 0.15% 1,990[lower-alpha 3] 38.33% 5,192
Piute 626 85.87% 47 6.45% 36 4.94% 11 1.51% 1 0.14% 5 0.69% 3 0.41% 579 79.42% 729
Rich 797 71.87% 104 9.38% 174 15.69% 21 1.89% 1 0.09% 10 0.90% 2 0.18% 623[lower-alpha 3] 56.18% 1,109
Salt Lake 138,043 32.96% 175,863 41.99% 79,880 19.07% 16,306 3.89% 4,965 1.19% 2,047 0.49% 1,764 0.42% −37,820 −9.03% 418,868
San Juan 2,645 48.56% 2,042 37.49% 486 8.92% 165 3.03% 47 0.86% 45 0.83% 17 0.31% 603 11.07% 5,447
Sanpete 6,673 65.65% 1,061 10.44% 2,038 20.05% 186 1.83% 30 0.30% 139 1.37% 37 0.36% 4,635[lower-alpha 3] 45.60% 10,164
Sevier 6,740 77.88% 695 8.03% 916 10.58% 175 2.02% 29 0.34% 67 0.77% 32 0.37% 5,824[lower-alpha 3] 67.30% 8,654
Summit 7,333 35.53% 10,503 50.88% 1,786 8.65% 756 3.66% 170 0.82% 44 0.21% 49 0.24% −3,170 −15.36% 20,641
Tooele 11,169 51.17% 4,573 20.95% 4,769 21.85% 783 3.59% 182 0.83% 191 0.87% 162 0.74% 6,400[lower-alpha 3] 29.32% 21,829
Uintah 9,810 76.66% 995 7.78% 1,496 11.69% 275 2.15% 43 0.34% 129 1.01% 49 0.38% 8,314[lower-alpha 3] 64.97% 12,797
Utah 102,182 50.70% 28,522 14.15% 60,532 30.03% 6,437 3.19% 1,030 0.51% 1,994 0.99% 854 0.42% 41,650[lower-alpha 3] 20.66% 201,551
Wasatch 6,115 50.45% 3,063 25.27% 2,315 19.10% 409 3.37% 70 0.58% 103 0.85% 45 0.37% 3,052 25.18% 12,120
Washington 42,650 68.83% 10,288 16.60% 6,565 10.60% 1,473 2.38% 290 0.47% 459 0.74% 238 0.38% 32,362 52.23% 61,963
Wayne 966 67.98% 271 19.07% 135 9.50% 18 1.27% 12 0.84% 14 0.99% 5 0.35% 695 48.91% 1,421
Weber 40,235 47.31% 23,131 27.20% 16,451 19.35% 3,371 3.96% 937 1.10% 465 0.55% 449 0.53% 17,104 20.11% 85,039
Totals515,23145.54%310,67627.46%243,69021.54%39,6083.50%9,4380.83%8,0320.71%4,7550.42%204,55518.08%1,131,430
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[31]

By congressional district

Trump won all four congressional districts.[32]

District Trump Clinton McMullin Representative
1st 49.7% 22.4% 22.3% Rob Bishop
2nd 46.0% 32.0% 16.9% Chris Stewart
3rd 47.2% 23.3% 24.5% Jason Chaffetz
4th 39.1% 32.4% 22.5% Mia Love

Analysis

Utah gave the Republican nominee a 45 percent plurality and thus awarded him six electoral votes. This was the lowest percent of the vote Trump received in a state he won in 2016.[33][34] Trump received a much lower percentage of the vote in Utah than did Mitt Romney in 2012.[35] In particular, Trump underperformed Romney by over 30 percentage points in the Provo-Orem, Logan, and Ogden metropolitan areas. Meanwhile, Clinton improved on Obama's performance in all of these areas.[36] Trump received only 45 percent of the vote among Utah members of the LDS Church, barely half the proportion that Romney won in 2012. This was also much lower than the 61 percent of the LDS Church's vote Trump received nationally.[37]

Evan McMullin's 21.3 percent of the vote is the strongest third-party performance in any state since Ross Perot during the 1992 presidential election.[lower-alpha 4][38][39] He finished second ahead of Clinton in fifteen of Utah's twenty-nine counties, becoming the first third-party candidate since Perot to outpoll a major party candidate in any county nationwide, and only the fifth since 1928 to do so in any non-Southern county.[lower-alpha 5] In Utah County, he received almost thirty percent of the vote, about twice as much as Clinton and more than any non-Republican presidential candidate since 1968.[40]

See also

Notes
  1. In 1992, George H. W. Bush won Utah by only 16.02 points; however, this was ahead of Ross Perot. Bill Clinton lost Utah by 18.71 points in that election.
  2. Robert Marion La Follette senior in 1924 did win his home state of Wisconsin under an “Independent” banner,[19] and exceeded McMullin performance under a similar “Independent” banner in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nevada and Oregon. In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt also exceeded McMullin’s vote share under the “Independent” banner in Kansas, as did James B. Weaver in South Dakota in 1892.
  3. In counties where McMullin placed second, ahead of Clinton, the Margin given is Trump's vote and percentage minus McMullin's vote and percentage.
  4. Perot exceeded McMullin’s Utah performance in twenty-six of the fifty states in 1992, with his best performance being 30.44 percent in Maine.
  5. The other four were William Lemke in the North Dakota counties of Burke, Divide, Williams, Mountrail and Towner in 1936, George Wallace in Utah’s own Kane County in 1968, John G. Schmitz in the four Idaho counties of Fremont, Jefferson, Lemhi and Madison in 1972, and Perot in numerous counties in 1992 and a few in 1996.

References
  1. "Voter turnout in United States elections". Ballotpedia. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
  2. "2016 Primary Schedule – 2016 Election Central". Uspresidentialelectionnews.com. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  3. "2016 General Election Results" (PDF). November 28, 2016. Retrieved April 23, 2017.
  4. "United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009". Clerk.house.gov. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2009.
  5. "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  6. "President Map". The New York Times. November 29, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  7. "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved December 24, 2015.
  8. Byrnes, Jesse (June 15, 2016). "Poll: Obama approval rating highest since 2012". TheHill. Retrieved June 19, 2016.
  9. Cohn, Nate (January 19, 2015). "What a Rise in Obama's Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 19, 2016.
  10. "Joe Biden Decides Not to Enter Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
  11. Bickel, Joshua (November 7, 2012). "How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis". Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
  12. Schleifer, Theodore (March 19, 2016). "Trump on Romney: 'Are you sure he's a Mormon?'". CNN. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
  13. Azari, Julia (July 6, 2016). "The States That Love (And Hate) Third-Party Candidates". FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
  14. Kondik, Kyle; Sabato, Larry; Skelley, Geoffrey. "The Electoral College: Map No. 2". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
  15. "UT Statewide Presidential Polling October 2016 Memo - Y2.pdf" (PDF). Dropbox. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  16. Dennis Romboy (October 11, 2016). "Poll: Trump falls into tie with Clinton among Utah voters". Deseret News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  17. Mensch, Louise (October 17, 2016). "EXCLUSIVE: Evan McMullin Utah Poll: Independent Conservative Ties Trump". Heatst.com. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  18. "Emerson College Polls: Utah breaking for third-party candidate McMullin. Trump loses ground in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Missouri. Ayotte (R-NH) and Blunt (R-MO) are tied in Senate bids, while Toomey (R-PA) is holding on" (PDF). Media.wix.com. Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  19. Dave Leip. "1924 Presidential General Election Results – Wisconsin". Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas.
  20. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  21. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  22. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  23. "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  24. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  25. Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  26. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  27. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  28. "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Utah: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein vs. McMullin".
  29. "Statewide General Election Results" (PDF). Office of the Lieutenant Governor of Utah. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
  30. "Statewide General Election Results" (PDF). Office of the Lieutenant Governor of Utah. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
  31. "Here's a map of the US counties that flipped to Trump from Democrats". www.cnbc.com. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  32. "Trump, Clinton underperformed in Utah's four Congressional Districts in 2016". Utah Policy. March 28, 2017.
  33. "2016 election results: Utah". edition.cnn.com.
  34. Roche, Lisa Riley (September 26, 2018). "Poll: Majority of Utahns don't want second term for Trump". KSL. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
  35. "See a Map That Shows Exactly Why Trump Won". Time. December 1, 2016. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
  36. Florida, Richard (December 7, 2016). "The Metro Areas That Swung for Trump and Clinton". Citylab. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
  37. Gehrke, Robert (November 18, 2016). "While Mormons nationally stuck with Trump, in Utah he lagged". Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
  38. "2016 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
  39. McCombs, Brady (November 9, 2016). "Trump wins Utah to extend GOP's 5-decade winning streak". Associated Press. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
  40. England, Katie (November 28, 2016). "Utah County gave Evan McMullin highest percentage of votes of any non-Republican since 1968". Daily Herald. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
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