2020 United States Senate election in Maine

The 2020 United States Senate election in Maine was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maine, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. This was Maine's first election for its Class 2 seat to use its ranked choice voting system. Because the first round of the general election saw a majority (51%), the instant runoff tabulation of more than 800,000 ballots was not carried out.

See also: 2020 United States Senate elections
Not to be confused with 2020 Maine State Senate election.

2020 United States Senate election in Maine
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Susan Collins Sara Gideon
Party Republican Democratic
First round 417,645 347,223
Percentage 50.98% 42.39%
Collins:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Gideon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Tie:      
U.S. senator before election

Susan Collins
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Susan Collins
Republican

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Republican Senator Susan Collins was challenged by Democratic nominee Sara Gideon, the speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, as well as independent candidates Lisa Savage and Max Linn. Collins was considered one of the most vulnerable Republican senators due to her decreased polling numbers and perceived harm to her reputation but was reelected by an unexpectedly large 8.6% margin, with 51% of the vote to Gideon's 42.4%. Despite this, her 51% share of the vote was her worst performance since her first election in 1996 and was a 17-point drop from 2014. Maine was the only state to elect a senator of a different party than the winner of its presidential contest in the November 3 election, with Collins outperforming President Donald Trump, who lost the state to Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 9.1%.[1]

Background

Republican Senator Susan Collins, widely considered one of the two least conservative Republican U.S. senators (the other being Lisa Murkowski), ran for a fifth term.[2] Collins had won each election to this seat by a greater victory margin than the one before it. Observers did not anticipate this election to continue that trend.[3][4][5][6]

Collins was criticized for her decision to vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court despite his anti-abortion stances (Collins describes herself as pro-choice) and allegations of sexual misconduct and abuse against him, though she gave a highly publicized speech on the Senate floor explaining her reasoning.[7][8] She also faced criticism for her stance on the impeachment of President Donald Trump. Collins voted in favor of allowing witness testimony in the Senate trial, and was the first Republican to do so,[9] and she voted to acquit Trump on both charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.[10][11][12][13] She said she voted to acquit because "impeachment of a president should be reserved for conduct that poses such a serious threat to our governmental institutions as to warrant the extreme step of immediate removal from office."[14] She initially claimed that Trump "learned a pretty big lesson" from the impeachment,[15] but later said that she thought he had not learned from it after all.[16] She has also been criticized for running for third, fourth, and fifth Senate terms despite vowing to serve no more than two terms during her 1996 campaign, though she has explained this as a product of having learned the value of seniority in the Senate. The emphasis on seniority became a key theme of her campaign.[17][18] Collins's campaign emphasized her efficiency as a legislator, her efforts to pass the Paycheck Protection Program and other aid for small businesses, and her growing seniority and influence in the Senate, in particular her potential chairwomanship of the Appropriations Committee.

The Democratic nominee, Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives Sara Gideon, supports criminal justice reforms, expansion of the Affordable Care Act, rejoining the Paris Climate Accord, and imposing universal background checks on gun sales to combat gun violence. In 2019, Gideon faced an election ethics complaint for accepting reimbursements for her political donations from her own PAC. Gideon apologized for the violation, reimbursed the federal government a total of $3,250, and closed the PAC.[19] Gideon was also criticized for keeping the Maine House of Representatives adjourned for most of the year (neighboring New Hampshire had reconvened its sizably larger legislature by late spring) and for allegedly turning a blind eye to a legislative colleague accused of molesting underage girls until she was forced to acknowledge the scandal.[20][21]

Lisa Savage, a longtime antiwar activist and schoolteacher from Solon, initially sought the Maine Green Independent Party nomination, but in late February, she announced her intention to instead qualify for the ballot as an independent due to Maine's restrictive ballot access measures.[22][23] In April, Savage turned in more than 5,500 signatures to the Secretary of State's office and thus qualified for the general election ballot.

Max Linn, a financial planner and conservative activist from Bar Harbor, was a Trump supporter and former candidate of the Republican and Reform parties. In July 2020, he qualified for the ballot as an independent. Former Republican State Senator Mary Small challenged the signatures on his petition, but the Secretary of State found that he had enough and he was placed on the ballot.[24] Later that month, he announced his intention to drop out of the race to support Collins. But days later, he decided not to drop out unless Collins agreed to a list of policies, which she did not.[25]

Party primaries were initially scheduled to take place on June 9, but due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the state, Governor Janet Mills rescheduled them for July 14. Mills's executive order also expanded voters' ability to request absentee ballots, which could then be done up to and on election day.[26] The primaries were conducted with ranked choice voting. Parties qualified to participate in the 2020 primary election were the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and the Maine Green Independent Party.

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
  • Amy Colter, law office manager (write-in candidate)[28]

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins		 Derek
Levasseur		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 55% 10% 34%
Hypothetical polling
with Susan Collins and Paul LePage
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins		 Paul
LePage		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 29% 63% 8%
with Susan Collins and Shawn Moody
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins		 Shawn
Moody		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 36% 45% 18%
with Susan Collins and generic Republican if Collins supported impeaching Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 35% 55% 10
with Susan Collins and Derek Levasseur if Collins supported impeaching Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins		 Derek
Levasseur		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 37% 24% 39%
with Susan Collins and generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 53% 38% 9%

Results
Republican primary results[34]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Susan Collins (incumbent) 87,375 98.79%
Republican Amy Colter (write-in) 1,073 1.21%
Total votes 88,448 100.0%

Democratic primary

On April 20, 2019, attorney and activist Bre Kidman became the first person to announce their candidacy for the Democratic nomination, making them the first ever U.S. Senate candidate who identifies as non-binary.[35][36][37] On June 13, 2019, former Maine gubernatorial candidate Betsy Sweet declared her candidacy.[38] Eleven days later, Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon announced her candidacy, receiving widespread media coverage.[39][40][41][42] General Jon Treacy had previously announced his candidacy before withdrawing. Former Google executive and political aide Ross LaJeunesse, who would have been the first openly gay man elected to the Senate, announced his candidacy in November 2019. He received the endorsement of the national political group The Victory Fund in January 2020. LaJeunesse eventually withdrew from the race in March 2020, citing the inability to continue his strategy of campaigning in person due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and endorsed Gideon. Two debates were held with all three candidates, while one hosted by WCSH was attended only by Sweet and Kidman.[43][44][45]

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Sara
Gideon		 Betsy
Sweet		 Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 2] – 67% 17% 17%[lower-alpha 3]
Colby College/SocialSphere February 10–13, 2020 383 (LV) – 60% 8% 33%[lower-alpha 4]

Results
Results by county
  Gideon
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary results[66]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sara Gideon 116,264 71.47%
Democratic Betsy Sweet 37,327 22.94%
Democratic Bre Kidman 9,090 5.59%
Total votes 162,681 100.0%

Other candidates

Green Independent Party

Two candidates declared their intentions to run for the Maine Green Independent Party's nomination, but one withdrew and the other left the party to become an independent. Lisa Savage left the party because of Maine's ballot access requirements; Savage needed 2,000 registered party members to sign a nomination petition to appear on the ballot as the Green Party candidate but could only gather them from January 1 until the March 15 deadline. The Green Party had roughly 41,000 members statewide, which was significantly fewer than the Democratic and Republican parties but nonetheless required the same number of signatures. No alternative party candidate for statewide office had been able to meet this requirement since Pat LaMarche did so in 2006 for Governor. Instead, Savage sought to appear as an independent candidate, which required 4,000 signatures, but they may be from any registered voter, not just party members and they could have been gathered until the June deadline.[23]

Withdrawn
  • David Gibson, solar design specialist (endorsed Savage)[67]
  • Lisa Savage, school teacher[68] (switched to independent)[69]

Write-in candidates

Independents
Independent Lisa Savage is a peace activist and retired schoolteacher from Solon, Maine.

Eight Independents declared their candidacy for Senate in 2020, including one affiliated with the Libertarian Party of Maine, which lost ballot access after the 2018 elections.[74] Two qualified for positions on the November ballot.[71]

Declared

Withdrawn
  • Joshua Arnone, accounting clerk affiliated with the Libertarian Party of Maine[28][71]
  • Steven Golieb, Millinocket town councilor[75][71]
  • Leigh Hawes, truck driver[76][71]
  • Danielle VanHelsing, LGBTQ rights activist[52][71]
  • Linda Wooten, vocational educator and conservative activist[28][71]

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[77] Tossup October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[78] Tilt D (flip) October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[79] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[80] Tossup October 30, 2020
Politico[81] Tossup November 2, 2020
RCP[82] Tossup October 23, 2020
DDHQ[83] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
538[84] Tossup November 2, 2020
Economist[85] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020

Debates

The four candidates participated in two in-person debates on September 11 and September 29, both held without an audience.[86] Collins at one point proposed holding 16 debates, one for every county in Maine, but such a schedule was not agreed upon.[87]

2020 United States Senate election in Maine debates
 N°DateModeratorParticipants
Key:
 P  Participant.   NI  Not invited.  		 Republican Democratic Independent Independent
United States Senator
Susan Collins
 Maine House Speaker
Sara Gideon		 Financial planner
Max Linn		 Public schoolteacher
Lisa Savage
 
1
 		 Friday, September 11, 2020
Pat Callaghan
Rachel Ohm
Michael Shepherd
 P P P P
 
2
 		 Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Kelly O'Mara
Jason Parent
 P P P P
 
3
 		 Thursday, October 15, 2020
Jennifer Rooks
Steve Mistler
Mal Leary
 P P P P
 
4
 		 Thursday, October 22, 2020
Pat Callaghan
 P P P P
 
5
 		 Wednesday, October 28, 2020 P P
NI
NI

Endorsements
Susan Collins (R)
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Governors
Other individuals
Organizations
Sara Gideon (D)
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Vice Presidents
U.S. Senators
Members of U.S. Congress
State executive officials
State legislators
Individuals
  • Stephen King, author[109]
  • Ross LaJeunesse, former aide to George J. Mitchell, Ted Kennedy, Steve Westly and Arnold Schwarzenegger[110]
Organizations
Unions
Lisa Savage (I)
State Executives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Publications
Declined to endorse

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls
Sara Gideon vs. Susan Collins
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Sara Gideon Susan Collins Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 5] Margin
270 to Win October 6 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.4% 42.6% 11.0% Gideon +3.8
Real Clear Politics September 10–23, 2020 September 25, 2020 48.5% 42.0% 9.5% Gideon +6.5
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins (R)		 Sara
Gideon (D)		 Lisa
Savage (I)		 Other /
Undecided
Change Research October 29 – November 2, 2020 1,024 (LV) ± 3.5% 42%[lower-alpha 6] 46% 7% 5%[lower-alpha 7]
46%[lower-alpha 8] 54% – –
Emerson College October 29–31, 2020 611 (LV) ± 3.9% 46%[lower-alpha 9] 48% 5% 5%[lower-alpha 10]
47%[lower-alpha 11] 51% – 5%[lower-alpha 12]
SurveyUSA October 23–27, 2020 1007 (LV) ± 3.7% 45%[lower-alpha 6] 46% 4% 5%[lower-alpha 13]
49%[lower-alpha 14] 51% – –
Colby College October 21–25, 2020 879 (LV) ± 3.3% 43%[lower-alpha 6] 47% 5% 5%[lower-alpha 15]
44%[lower-alpha 16] 49% – 7%[lower-alpha 17]
Pan Atlantic Research October 2–6, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 40%[lower-alpha 6] 47% 5% 8%[lower-alpha 18]
41%[lower-alpha 19] 49% 1% 9%[lower-alpha 20]
Critical Insights September 25 – October 4, 2020 466 (LV) ± 4.4% 43%[lower-alpha 6] 44% 3% 11%[lower-alpha 21]
43%[lower-alpha 11] 46% 1% 10%[lower-alpha 22]
Data for Progress (D) September 23–28, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.7% 41%[lower-alpha 6] 46% 3% 11%[lower-alpha 23]
42%[lower-alpha 24] 50% – 8%[lower-alpha 25]
Colby College September 17–23, 2020 847 (LV) ± 3.4% 41%[lower-alpha 6] 45% 3% 11%[lower-alpha 26]
43%[lower-alpha 19] 47% – 6%[lower-alpha 27]
Moore Information (R)[upper-alpha 1] September 20–22, 2020 600 (LV) – 42% 42% – 9%[lower-alpha 28]
Suffolk University September 17–20, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41%[lower-alpha 6] 46% 4% 7%[lower-alpha 29]
42%[lower-alpha 30] 49% 1% 8%[lower-alpha 31]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 11–16, 2020 663 (LV) ± 5.1% 40%[lower-alpha 6] 44% 2% 2%[lower-alpha 32]
44%[lower-alpha 33] 49% 0% 7%[lower-alpha 34]
Quinnipiac University September 10–14, 2020 1,183 (LV) ± 2.9% 42% 54% – 4%[lower-alpha 35]
Citizen Data September 4–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 49% 1% 9%[lower-alpha 36]
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[upper-alpha 2] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 43%[lower-alpha 6] 44% 6% 8%[lower-alpha 37]
47%[lower-alpha 24] 48% – 5%[lower-alpha 38]
Public Policy Polling August 13–14, 2020 571 (V) ± 4.1% 44% 49% – 7%[lower-alpha 39]
Critical Insights July 28 – August 9, 2020 453 (LV) ± 4.3% 38% 43% 5% 15%[lower-alpha 40]
499 (RV) 35%[lower-alpha 6] 43% 5% 18%[lower-alpha 41]
37%[lower-alpha 16] 44% 1% 18%[lower-alpha 42]
Quinnipiac University July 30 – August 3, 2020 807 (RV) ± 3.5% 43% 47% – 10%[lower-alpha 43]
RMG Research July 27 – August 2, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 48% – 11%[lower-alpha 44]
Data for Progress July 24 – August 2, 2020 866 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 48% – 7%[lower-alpha 45]
Colby College/SocialSphere July 18–24, 2020 888 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 44% – 18%[lower-alpha 46]
Public Policy Polling July 22–23, 2020 561 (V) ± 3.6% 42% 47% – 11%[lower-alpha 44]
Public Policy Polling July 2–3, 2020 1,022 (V) ± 3.1% 42% 46% – 11%[lower-alpha 44]
Moore Information (R)[upper-alpha 1] June 20–24, 2020[lower-alpha 47] 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 37% 3% 1%[lower-alpha 48]
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 512 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 51% – 7%[lower-alpha 39]
Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] April 2020 –[lower-alpha 49] – 48% 47% – 5%
Public Policy Polling March 2–3, 2020 872 (V) ± 3.3% 43% 47% – 10%[lower-alpha 50]
Colby College/SocialSphere February 10–13, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 42% 43% – 14%[lower-alpha 51]
Fabrizio Ward[upper-alpha 2] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 35% – 13%[lower-alpha 52]
Gravis Marketing Archived June 28, 2019, at the Wayback Machine June 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 44%[lower-alpha 53] 30% – 26%[lower-alpha 54]
52%[lower-alpha 24] 36% – 12%[lower-alpha 55]
Pan Atlantic Research March 4–13, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 29% – 20%[lower-alpha 56]
Hypothetical polling
with Betsy Sweet
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Betsy Sweet (D) Susan
Collins (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 512 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 43% 10%
with Susan Rice
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Rice (D)		 Susan
Collins (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Emerson College October 27–29, 2018 883 (LV)[lower-alpha 57] ± 3.5% 20% 44% 35%
with generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Susan Collins (R) Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 512 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 39% 12%[lower-alpha 55]
Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10–13, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 34% 40% 26%
Public Policy Polling October 11–13, 2019 939 (V) ± 3.2% 44% 41% 15%[lower-alpha 58]
Public Policy Polling October 1–2, 2018 –[lower-alpha 49] ± 3.3% 34% 42% –
Public Policy Polling (D) Archived December 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 4] August 28–29, 2017 501 (V) – 21% 51% 27%[lower-alpha 59]
with generic Democrat if Collins supports impeaching Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Susan
Collins (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 11–13, 2019 939 (V) ± 3.2% 38% 32% 30%[lower-alpha 60]
with generic Democrat if Collins opposes impeaching Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Susan
Collins (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 11–13, 2019 939 (V) ± 3.2% 47% 40% 13%[lower-alpha 61]
with Generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins (R)		 Generic
Opponent		 Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward[upper-alpha 2] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 55% 7%[lower-alpha 62]
Pan Atlantic Research March 4–13, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 25% 27% 48%[lower-alpha 63]
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Other /
Undecided
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 11–16, 2020 663 (LV) ± 5.1% 41% 53% 6%[lower-alpha 64]
Quinnipiac University September 10–14, 2020 1,183 (LV) ± 2.9% 40% 53% 7%[lower-alpha 39]
Fabrizio Ward[upper-alpha 2] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 42% 15%[lower-alpha 65]

Results

Like many Republican Senate candidates in 2020, Collins did much better on Election Day than pre-election polls predicted; nearly all of them predicted her defeat.[140] Collins defeated Gideon in the general election with 51.0% of the first-place votes, precluding additional rounds of tabulation.[141] Gideon conceded to Collins on November 4.[142]

United States Senate election in Maine, 2020[143]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Susan Collins (incumbent) 417,645 50.98% -17.48%
Democratic Sara Gideon 347,223 42.39% +10.89%
Independent Lisa Savage 40,579 4.95% N/A
Independent Max Linn 13,508 1.65% N/A
Write-in 228 0.03% -0.01%
Total votes 819,183 100.0% N/A
Republican hold
By county
County Susan Collins
Republican		 Sara Gideon
Democratic		 Lisa Savage
Independent		 Max Linn
Independent		 Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Androscoggin 32,979 56.19 22,181 37.79 2,438 4.15 1,090 1.86 2 0.00 10,798 18.40 58,690
Aroostook 24,033 67.51 9,750 27.39 1,072 3.01 743 2.09 3 0.01 14,283 40.12 35,601
Cumberland 74,592 38.45 105,308 54.29 11,907 6.14 2,138 1.10 39 0.02 -30,716 -15.83 193,984
Franklin 9,817 56.47 6,276 36.10 969 5.57 322 1.85 0 0.00 3,541 20.37 17,384
Hancock 17,371 49.19 15,379 43.55 1,821 5.16 736 2.08 8 0.02 1,992 5.64 35,315
Kennebec 39,481 54.92 27,664 38.49 3,407 4.74 1,324 1.84 10 0.01 11,817 16.44 71,886
Knox 11,705 45.44 12,190 47.32 1,461 5.67 399 1.55 3 0.01 -485 -1.88 25,758
Lincoln 12,075 51.08 10,102 42.73 1,111 4.70 349 1.48 3 0.01 1,973 8.35 23,640
Oxford 19,567 58.54 11,705 35.02 1,511 4.52 635 1.90 4 0.01 7,862 23.52 33,422
Penobscot 51,088 59.96 28,958 33.98 3,461 4.06 1,600 1.88 100 0.12 22,130 25.97 85,207
Piscataquis 6,603 66.95 2,655 26.92 394 3.99 210 2.13 0 0.00 3,948 40.03 9,862
Sagadahoc 11,558 48.08 10,787 44.87 1,354 5.63 337 1.40 3 0.01 771 3.21 24,039
Somerset 17,861 64.92 7,355 26.73 1,770 6.43 525 1.91 3 0.01 10,506 38.18 27,514
Waldo 12,538 51.57 9,768 40.18 1,604 6.60 394 1.62 9 0.04 2,770 11.39 24,313
Washington 11,196 64.56 5,251 30.28 547 3.15 338 1.95 10 0.06 5,945 34.28 17,342
York 64,092 49.46 57,826 44.63 5,389 4.16 2,255 1.74 16 0.01 6,266 4.84 129,578
Overseas 1,089 19.28 4,068 72.02 363 6.43 113 2.00 15 0.27 -2,979 -52.74 5,648
Totals 417,645 50.98 347,223 42.39 40,579 4.95 13,508 1.65 228 0.03 70,422 8.60 819,183
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Collins won 1 of the 2 congressional districts in the state, which also elected a Democrat.[144]

District Gideon Collins Representative
1st 48.0% 45.5% Chellie Pingree
2nd 38.5% 61.5% Jared Golden

Analysis

Gideon underperformed Biden by 10.6%, the second-worst underperformance by a Democratic Senate candidate in the country.[145] Examples of this discrepancy include Wells, a coastal town in the state's liberal southwest corner, where Biden won by 14% and Collins by 6%.[146]

During his presidency, Collins's stance on Trump waffled, as he did not share her moderate politics but had a strong base in Maine's sprawling, rural 2nd congressional district. Collins voted against the Affordable Care Act repeal, but for the GOP's 2017 tax bill and to acquit Trump in his first impeachment. She voted to confirm Trump's nominees Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court but against the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett just days before the 2020 election, citing disagreement with process.[147]

See also

Notes
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by the NRSC, which exclusively supports Republican candidates in U.S. Senate elections.
  2. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  3. Poll sponsored by the 1820 PAC.
  4. Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
Voter samples
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Likely primary voter subsample of 306 likely general election Democratic voters
  3. Undecided with 17%
  4. Undecided with 31%; LaJeunesse with 0%; "another candidate" with 2%
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. Standard VI response
  7. Linn (I) with 2%; "Don't recall", would not vote, and Undecided with 1%; Did not vote with 0%
  8. With 3 rounds of Ranked Choice Voting
  9. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  10. Linn (I) and "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  11. Reassigning the second preferences of Linn, Savage and "Someone else" voters
  12. "No second choice" and "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  13. Linn (I) with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  14. With Ranked Choice Voting
  15. Linn (I) with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  16. Reassigning the second preferences of Savage voters
  17. Linn (I) with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  18. Linn (I) with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  19. Reassigning the second preferences of Linn and Savage voters
  20. Linn (I) with 2%; Undecided with 8%
  21. Linn (I), "Someone else" and "Refused" with 1%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  22. "No second preference" and "Refused" with 1%; Linn (I) and "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  23. Linn (I) with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  24. If only Collins and Gideon were candidates
  25. Undecided with 8%
  26. Linn (I) with 5%; Undecided with 6%
  27. Undecided with 6%
  28. Undecided with 9%
  29. Linn (I) with 2%; "Other" and "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  30. Assigning the second preferences of non-Collins/Gideon voters
  31. Linn (I) and "Refused" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  32. Linn (I) with 2%
  33. Topline after Ranked Choice Voting is used
  34. Would not vote with 1%; Linn (I) and "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  35. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  36. "Other" with 2%; Linn (I) with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  37. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  38. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  39. Undecided with 7%
  40. "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 13%
  41. Would not vote with 2%; "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 14%
  42. Would not vote with 2%; "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 15%
  43. "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  44. Undecided with 11%
  45. "No one" with 7%
  46. "Minor party candidates" with 6%; Undecided with 12%
  47. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  48. Linn (I) with 1%
  49. Not yet released
  50. Undecided with 10%
  51. Undecided with 14%
  52. Undecided with 12%; "Would not vote/would not vote for US Senate" with 1%
  53. First choice on an RCV ballot if the candidates were Collins, Gideon and VanHelsing (I)
  54. Undecided with 19%; VanHelsing with 7%
  55. Undecided with 12%
  56. "Other" with 12%; Undecided with 8%
  57. Using the likely voter screen for the 2018 U.S. Senate election in Maine
  58. Undecided with 15%
  59. Undecided with 27%
  60. Undecided with 30%
  61. Undecided with 13%
  62. "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  63. "Consider voting for Collins" with 40%; Undecided with 8%
  64. "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  65. "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 15%

References
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Further reading
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