Battle of Avdiivka (2022–present)

Fighting began on 21 February 2022, when Russian forces alongside separatist militias renewed fighting in Avdiivka.[11] When Russia officially started its invasion of Ukraine, Avdiivka was one of its main targets. On 13 March, Russian forces bombed the Avdiivka Coke Plant[12] although the Russians accused Ukraine of sabotaging it.[13] The National Police of Ukraine said on 22 March that Russia used Tornado-S MLRSs in bombardments of Avdiivka, allegedly causing civilian casualties.[14] It was reported on 25 March that Artem Murakhovskyi, a commander of the Azov Regiment, was killed in Avdiivka.[15]

Avdiivka 1st school after shelling by white phosphorus munitions

On 18 April, Russia renewed its invasion on Eastern Ukraine by heavily shelling and attacking Avdiivka.[16][17][18] Around 2,000 of Avdiivka's residents were forced to flee underground.[19][20][21] Ukraine claimed to have repelled Russian advances in Avdiivka on 19 April.[22]

During the battle, use of white phosphorus munitions by Russian forces was reported several times. Governor of Donetsk Oblast Pavlo Kyrylenko reported a phosphorus attack on the city industrial zone on 26 March,[23] on the area of the coking plant on 26 April, and on the city center, causing several fires, the next day.[24][25] On 29 April, videos of the Russian army shelling Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka with a thermobaric weapon were published.[26] On 18 May, Avdiivka 1st school was destroyed by a Russian attack with phosphorus munitions.[27][28] On May 26, Ukraine's General Staff reported that Russian forces were advancing through Avdiivka, capturing many areas in the city.[29]

On 1 June, the DPR took control of a major highway.[30] On 6 June, the DPR took territory near Kamianka.[31] On 12 June, Russia again bombed the Avdiivka Coke Plant.[32] School No. 6 was destroyed on 21 June, being the third school destroyed in Avdiivka.[33] On 24 June, Russian forces fired on Avdiivka.[34] Russian forces later captured Novoselivka Druha on 4 July, which is 10 km northeast of Avdiivka, in an attempt to encircle the city.[35] On 7 July, Russian forces shelled Avdiivka for 24 hours. They hit infrastructure, a hospital, residential buildings, a bus depot, and the Avdiivka Coke Plant.[36]

On 18 July, the DPR claimed it had "half-surrounded" Avdiivka, having blocked two of the roads leading into the town. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) an American based non-profit think-tank, also stated that fighting north of Avdiivka had intensified on July 18.[37] However, Igor Girkin said that the DPR's forces were unable to make many gains due to Ukrainian artillery.[38]

On 28 July, DPR and Russian forces launched a claimed offensive to surround Avdiivka. Russian and separatist forces assaulted the towns of Krasnohorivka, Pisky, and other towns north of Avdiivka, with unspecified gains.[39] On 31 July, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces attempted advances around Kamyanka and Pisky and that unspecified separate Russian units had ”partial success” around Avdiivka. Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Deputy Information Minister Daniil Bezsonov claimed that Russian and DPR forces secured positions on the southeastern outskirts of Pisky, which is consistent with Ukrainian reports.[40] The Head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration Vitalii Barabash said that only 10% of the pre-war population of Avdiivka remained or about 2,500 people.[41]

Ukraine said on 5 August that it lost the Butivka coal mine to Russia and claimed it was pushed to the outskirts of Avdiivka.[42][43] The DPR claimed its forces and Russia took Pisky, with Ukraine rejecting the claim.[44][45] On August 7, combat footage showed that Russian forces had reached the centre of Pisky.[46] As of August 12, the ISW reported that based on combat footage and satellite imagery, much of Pisky had been leveled by the Russians, because of heavy shelling using thermobaric artillery systems.[47] On 24 August, Russian and DNR forces captured Pisky.[48] In early September, several separatist units, including the Sparta Battalion and Somalia Battalion, launched an attack in the wider Avdiivka area, most importantly near Pisky.[3] As of late September, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ukrainian forces "remain[ed] on the defensive" in Avdiivka.[49] On 10 October, Ukraine said Russia was continuing its offensive in Avdiivka and was trying to encircle the city.[50] In mid-January 2023, Russian and DNR forces made an attempt to capture the village of Vodyane, the action was described as "calamitous" by military observers. [51]

In March 2023 Ukrainian commander at Avdiivka said that Russian forces were trying to fully encircle the city.[52] On 24 April, the Ukrainians claimed to have repulsed a Russian attack, and to have killed or wounded 200 Russian soldiers and destroyed 20 pieces of equipment.[53] On 21 May, the Ukrainians claimed to have defeated a mechanized Russian assault near Avdiivka. During the engagement, they claimed to have killed 40 Russian soldiers and to have destroyed 5 armored vehicles, including at least two tanks.[54]

Fighting in the battle intensified during the beginning of the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive, with Russian forces putting pressure on the outskirts of the town and Ukrainians digging in.[55] On 10 September 2023, Avdiivka City Military Administration Head Vitaliy Barabash reported that Ukrainian forces had gained a foothold in the urban portion of the village of Opytne 3km southwest of Avdiivka and 2km north of the Donetsk International Airport claiming to secured the southern border of the city, ending a threat of near encirclement.[56][57]

A shelled residential building in Avdiivka, October 2023

On 6 October, the parts of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army and the 41st Combined Arms Army, recently refitted and redeployed from Luhansk Oblast, began to bombard the area with artillery and aircraft, including Su-35 fighter-bombers. Four days later, the Russians began a concentrated attack consisting of a half-dozen motor-rifle brigades and regiments against the two-brigade strong Ukrainian garrison. The Russian attack ran into minefields and stalled as it continued to be struck by Ukrainian artillery. Geolocated footage showed 70 destroyed vehicles, 15 of which were Ukrainian. However, the Ukrainians claimed even higher losses for their opponents. The losses for the Russian 90th Tank Division were estimated at 820 killed or wounded, about 80 armoured vehicles (including at least one BMPT Terminator), 18 artillery pieces, more than a dozen multiple rocket launchers, and about 30 other vehicles. Total Russian casualties in just one day were claimed by to have been 34 tanks and 91 other armored vehicles destroyed in all, with human losses reportedly being 820 killed and 2,400 wounded. An Su-25 was also reported to have been shot down.[58][59][60]

Starting on 10 October, three motorized rifle brigades of the Russian 8th Combined Arms Army began a concerted offensive action around Avdiivka southwest near Sieverne and northwest near Stepove and Krasnohorivka. All Russian units involved in the renewed offensive observed so far are members of the Donetsk people's militias the 8th CAA absorbed at the start of the invasion.[1]

On 11 October, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russia initiated 18 combat engagements against the city during the last 24 hours. Additionally the Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian army launched one missile strike and 36 air strikes, while the Ukrainian air force launched 12 strikes.[2][61] Andrii Kovaliov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian General Staff, reported separately in an interview with Radio Svoboda that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had prior knowledge of this attempted assault and were ready for it.[62][63] On 12 October ISW assessed that Russian forces "have not secured any major breakthrough" and are unlikely to cut off Ukrainian forces due to heavy losses, equivalent to battalion tactical group in armoured vehicles.[64]

According to the Kyiv Post, independent analysts estimates that the Russians suffered losses of 1,000 to 2,000 troops killed or wounded in the first 96 hours of the offensive, along with 30 to 40 tanks and 90 to 100 armored personnel carriers. Meanwhile Ukrainian drone operators reported losses of 100 Russian soldiers and two tanks within the first ten minutes of the fighting with no losses of their own.[65]

On 14 October, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military, claimed that they had killed 3,000 Russian soldiers and destroyed 300 pieces of equipment (including 61 tanks and three Su-25s in the past five days since the beginning of the Russian’s offensive. In addition, 18 Russian soldiers had also surrendered to the Ukrainians. The first four days of Russia's offensive also saw a spike in personnel losses, which had climbed to fighters 800 dying per day, he claimed.[66][67][68][69][70]

Russian forces would maintain days-long assaults, only showing signs of letting up by 16 October when Barabash reported that Russian forces only attempted to storm the city 15 times, compared to the 60 time average during the middle of the week.[71] Andriy Serhan, the commander of the 59th Motorized Brigade's drone platoon, stated that the Russian assault had failed, but that the Russians are regrouping for another attempt.[4][72][73] Additionally, Ukrainian sources reported that Russian positions were reinforced with three units based on DNR militias, the 114th, 15th, and 21st Motor Rifle Brigades while the 30th Motor Rifle Brigade is kept in reserve.[74] In addition, according to analyst Tom Cooper, the Ukrainians had managed to knock out 80 Russian artillery pieces north of Avdiivka.[75]

On 18 October, the 21st Motor Rifle Brigade, made up of professional soldiers, launched an attack to take a huge pile of coke slack (formed from the nearby Avdiivka Coke Plant), and while they managed to take some forward positions, they failed to take the “hill”. The Ukrainians claimed to have destroyed 97 Russian tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armoured personnel carriers. Another Ukrainian source claimed that 620 Russian soldiers and 34 units of military equipment were lost on the 18th. The intensity of the fighting, that Austrian analyst Tom Cooper has dubbed the “death march of the 21st Motor Rifle Brigade”, has led some Ukrainians to compare it to the Battle of Kursk from World War II.[76][77]

On 19 October, a new concerted Russian push began with the DNR's “Kluny” Sabotage, Assault and Reconnaissance group making gains north of Spartak, DNR forces are also attempting a frontal assault of Avdiivka, as opposed to encircling, with the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade attacking a fortified restaurant, the “Tsarska Okhota”, on the city's south-eastern outskirts. The 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade reported to have advanced "a few hundred" meters in the Vodyane-Netaylove direction. The 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade and 277th Infantry Battalion attacked near Stepove. The 1454th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 21st Motorized Rifle Brigade attacked near Kamyanka. Lastly the “Pyatnashka” and ”Yugra” volunteer battalions attempted to advance to the N20 highway east of Avdiivka. This new assault has not secured any portion of the Urban areas of the villages surrounding Avdiivka, with reported gains being limited to the rural outskirts.[78]

According to Ukrainian sources, the Russians lost 900 soldiers killed and wounded, as well as 50 tanks and 100 armored vehicles damaged or destroyed. In addition, Ukrainian soldiers operating there also claimed that they had destroyed 200 armored vehicles over the last four days alone.[79][80][81]

On 20 October, a report by David Axe of Forbes stated that the Ukrainian claim of 175 Russian armored vehicles destroyed (between the previous Thursday and Friday), including 55 tanks, is nearly 20 times higher than the daily average of three Russian tanks destroyed since February 2022. Meanwhile, according to a report from the Euromaidan Press, 65% of the nearly 1,400 Russian soldiers claimed to have been killed on 19 October occurred on just two 5 kilometer segments of the front near Avdiivka. They also stated that these losses are almost 50% higher than the first day of the offensive, although this attack was reportedly not as intense as the first one. The reasons the Ukrainians gave for this was a lack of surprise on the Russian’s part, and also a lack of adequate air support, largely because of the loss of 5 confirmed fighter jets and another two claimed over the previous 11 days.[82][83] On 22 October, the ISW assessed that the Russian offensive effort that started on 19 October failed and that Russian forces were again pausing their efforts to regroup and rearm. Additionally, Russian milbloggers disputed among each other if there was a Ukrainian counteroffensive towards the villages of Pisky and Opytne.[84]

On 22 October, the fighting had become so intense that Ukrainian military historian Vasyl Pavlov compared the situation around Avdiivka to the Battles of Rzhev during World War II. “What’s happening around Avdiivka can be compared to a series of events that took place on the Eastern Front during World War II, or let’s say such a well-known event as the Battle of Rzhev,” he claimed in an interview with Espreso TV. In addition, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidential administration, told TV Rain that Russia had lost between 5,000 and 6,000 troops in just over a week of their offensive in Avdiivka, as well as 400 armored vehicles. Indeed, according to the Ukrainian military, by 23 October the Russians had been losing as many as 1,000 men killed in action each day during its attempt to take the town, as well as “tens of tanks and armored vehicles”. The recent Russian attacks on Avdiivka “have contributed to a 90% increase in Russian casualties recorded by the Ukrainian MoD (Ministry of Defense),” according to British military intelligence.[85][86][87] Shtupun also reported that Russian command is still moving more units from the front in Zaporizhia to Avdiivka, namely the 6th Motor Rifle Division.[84]