Red lines in the Russo-Ukrainian War

The term red lines has seen use in the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and is a veiled threat of engagement that is intended to warn an opponent or observer not to interfere or undertake in an action or behaviour that would "cross the red line."

On 21 April 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a speech in which he repeatedly warned the West of red lines that Russia would not accept. The warnings were repeated on many occasions up to the date of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.[1]

To some experts, the number of red lines that have been crossed reveal the inability for belligerents involved in the war to project power internationally.[2]

Russia's red lines

The mention of red lines have been in common use since the very start of the renewed conflict in Ukraine to justify the war. In February of 2022, President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation stated that the United States and its Western partners had crossed a red line with regard to Ukraine, which resulted in the consequence of Russia having to undertake its "Special Military Operation" against Ukraine due of the threat imposed from Ukraine to the very existence of the Russian Federation.[3]

Crossing a red line to the Russian Federation is often identified as being an action that damages Russian national interests. Such actions may include the imposition of sanctions, the freezing of Russian or affiliated nation funds, and the donation of military goods to its perceived adversaries or other.

While commonly used by the Russian Federation in international politics, Russia has simultaneously used the red line phrase in shaping narratives aimed at domestic audiences.

Usage of red line warnings

Russia has used the phrase "red line" often, and because some of these lines have been crossed without major repercussions, some believe that Russia has devalued the impact of their threats, with the threats appearing more as bluffs.[4]

There may be an actual red line that Russian and the Kremlin really have, but it is largely unclear what exactly it consists of.[4]

Some of the red line threats from Russia may in fact be bluffs solely to slow the supply of resources to Ukraine, making the West consider their options and delaying action.[5]

Others may be used just to show an element of escalation has taken place once a line is crossed. Red lines are nearly always soft, variable and adjustable rather than hard-line positions that are immutable.[6]

In diplomacy, both Russia and Ukraine have mentioned red lines when referring to acceptable peace terms. One such example of a diplomatic Russian red line leaves Russia keeping Crimea, and another Ukrainian red line sees all Russian forces leave territory that belonged to Ukraine on 31 December 1991.[7][8] These red lines appear incompatible.

Tacit rules

As time has progressed in the war, a set of tacit rules has emerged which fit between current operations and red lines and affect the rule creator.[9][5]

Examples of such tacit rules include:

  • NATO will defend its territory.[10]
  • No NATO forces will operate inside Ukraine against Russian forces.[11]
  • NATO will not operate in the airspace over Ukraine, in order to avoid a direct confrontation.[12]

Under these stated rules, Russia would cross a red line if they attacked a NATO country, and NATO would cross a self-imposed red line if they sent troops into Ukraine. The above aim to limit an expansion of the war; however, it is not all one-sided, as other tacit rules are:

  • US and NATO will share intelligence and satellite imagery with Ukraine.[13]
  • NATO countries will provide weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.[14]
  • Ukraine will not use NATO weapons to strike inside Russia.[15]

Identified red lines

Russian red lines
Date notified Red line Date broken Consequences Ref.
2014 Crimea 23 Aug 2023 [16][17]
November 2021 Ukraine not joining NATO not broken [18][17]
November 2021 NATO military infrastructure not to be deployed in Ukraine not broken [18][17]
December 2021 No deployment of soldiers to Ukraine not broken [19]
December 2021 No weapons to Ukraine February 2022 Threats over non disguised intervention by NATO [19][20][21]
24 February 2022 “Interference” in Ukraine by outside powers 24 February 2022 Reduction in gas supply to the west [17]
February 2022 NATO troops and missiles to be withdrawn from Russia's western border February 2022 War in Ukraine [22]
February 2022 NATO to stop eastward expansion and reverses back to position in 1997 February 2022 War in Ukraine [22]
March 2022 No introducing a “no-fly” zone not broken [23]
March 2022 No more western arms to Ukraine March 2022 Convoys will be considered legitimate targets [24][17]
March 2022 No MiG-29 fighter jets March 2023 Supplied MiG's will be destroyed [5]
April 2022 No foreign intervention in war not broken [25][17]
June 2022 No long-range missiles June 2022 New targets hit by Russian missiles [26][17]
June 2022 No Western made missiles to be fired into Russia not broken [27]
August 2022 No supplying old Soviet tanks to Ukraine August 2022 [28]
September 2022 Germany's supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine crosses a red line September 2022 [29]
September 2022 Russian setbacks on battle field will result in nuclear holocaust September 2022 [30]
September 2022 Not to threaten the territorial integrity of Russia
(as its borders were prior to 2014)		 not broken [30]
September 2022 Not to supply longer range battlefield missiles (greater than HIMARS's current 50 miles) May 2023 Red line pulled back [31] [32]
November 2022 Not to supply Patriot Missile system April 2023 [33]
January 2023 No modern western tanks to be supplied to Ukraine January 2023 Comments about it being an "extremely dangerous" action [34] [32]
May 2023 No F-16 fighter jets pending Comments about it being a "colossal risk" [35]
September 2023 No US ATACM longer range missiles to attack Russian territory October 2023 Putin said in October, US deliveries of the long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to Ukraine was "another mistake" [36][37] [38]

  Current red lines

Western red lines
Date notified Red line Date broken Consequences Ref.
Through 2021 Russia not to invade Ukraine February 2022 Immediate sanctions [39]
February 2022 Threats against a NATO country not broken [40]
March 2022 No chemical weapons not broken [41]
International law Murder and abduction of children 2022-2023 International Criminal Court arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova [42]
NATO rules Interfering with civilian ships belonging to NATO countries in the Black Sea
Russian warships stop and board NATO member civilian ship (Turkish) in international waters		 August 2023 NATO warships from Romania and Bulgaria patrol and sweep Ukrainian grain corridor for mines [43]

Tactics used to contravene red lines
The handover of the first Leopard 2 tanks provided by Poland to Ukraine in February 2023

Red lines come in differing levels of severity. Some of these are bluffs, with parties to the conflict having given many red lines that were transcended without issue during the last decade. To counter red line policies, a number of tactics have been employed by the belligerents and non-belligerents alike. Such counter-measures aim to allow the crossing of red lines with significantly fewer or no consequences.[5][44][45]

  • Noise - The West has often employed a tactic of “noise” before a decision is seen to take place to cross a Russian red line. This noise is often employed in the form of having a public debate, frequently over a month or even longer involving numerous countries. Often times these debates involve the possibility of the first weapon being sent from, or via, a third country. Once this has occurred and a small number of arms have arrived already, the red line has effectively been diluted without a significant reaction. Because of the noise surrounding the discussions, no one event can be seen to be a significant or important enough event to be defined as the red line crossing moment.[46][17]
  • Undermining the red line - Another tactic used is the supplying of something similar to a red line weapon, such as the supply of modern tanks. For example, when France agreed to supply a number of AMX-10 RC wheeled modern “tanks”. These wheeled tanks were not exactly what Ukraine wanted or needed, and as a result it caused very little reaction from the Russian Federation while also enabling the ability to further dilute the debate of whether it was wheeled vehicles or tracked vehicles which the Russian Federation objected to, rather than the fact it was a "modern western" tank. Following this, Challenger 2 tanks were then promised in addition to modern Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams tanks.[47][48]
  • Similar, but not as good - With long range missiles, the Russian Federation objected to the United States of America supplying ATACMS with a range of 300 km, as the missiles could be used to attack targets in Russia. In response to this, the United Kingdom supplied its “Storm Shadow’’ cruise missiles with a range of 250 km. These weapons allowed Ukraine to strike into Russian-held territory in Eastern Ukraine, while also having enough range to hit valuable targets within the legal borders of the Russian Federation. This enables Ukraine to destroy command and logistics centres located in occupied Ukraine that had previously been moved back out of HIMARS range. The Russian Federation having a hard-line on the 300 km range found its red line diluted, and there was no tangible reaction.[49]
  • Drip feed - A decision to supply a large quantity of modern tanks would likely provoke an immediate reaction from the Russian Federation, however when a decision is made for a country to supply a number as small as four tanks, another country may supply seven, and a third country another four. If aid is given in this manner, Russia seems unable to show that a red line has been crossed. By drip feeding from multiple countries, no one country attracts a significant adverse reaction from what is effectively directly crossing a red line.[50][51][52][17]
  • Calling the Bluff - Belligerents have few options to retaliate in a meaningful way against other parties for a breach of a red-lines, without significantly widening the scope of the war, or resorting to a nuclear option.[53]

Red lines of non-belligerent states

Many countries outside of the direct belligerents active in the Russo-Ukrainian war have interests within it. As a result, this has caused foreign parties such as the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and the People's Republic of China to establish their own so-called red lines.

When the international community refers to the crossing of "red lines" it tends to be limited to the use of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons and the supply of other lethal weapons. Below, a small list of such red lines has been provided.

  • The People's Republic of China was warned by the United States of America not to supply lethal weapons to the Russian Federation,[54] or else it would face secondary sanctions.
  • South Korea was warned by the Russian Federation that supplying weapons would cross a red-line,[55] whereby Russia would respond by supplying weapons to North Korea.
  • The European Council of the EU implicitly drew a red line when the authorities of Georgia rejected a judicial reform and EU loan package to reduce the influence of pro-Russia billionaires in the country, by offering EU membership candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova (but not Georgia) in June 2022.[56]
  • The Islamic Republic of Iran was warned that supplying missiles to the Russian Federation would cross a red-line[57] resulting in secondary sanctions.
  • China has told Russia it would cross a red-line by using nuclear weapons in Ukraine,[58] whereby China would stop implicitly supporting Russia in the war.

See also

References
  1. "Any "red lines" left for Putin?". 31 January 2023.
  2. "The path to peace in Ukraine runs directly through Putin's red lines". 14 February 2023.
  3. "Russian Attack on Ukraine: Turning-point in the history of Euro-Atlantic Security". 3 March 2022.
  4. "Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin's red lines". 1 June 2023.
  5. "Arming Ukraine without crossing Russia's red lines". 6 April 2023.
  6. "Putin Has No Red Lines". 1 January 2023.
  7. "Blinken: Crimea a 'red line' for Putin as Ukraine weighs plans to retake it". 15 February 2023.
  8. ""UNTIL WE LIBERATE CRIMEA, WE CANNOT TALK ABOUT LONG-TERM PEACE AND SECURITY FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS." – DENYS SHMYHAL, PRIME MINISTER OF UKRAINE". Retrieved 25 August 2023.
  9. "Tacit rules to avoid a NATO-Russia war". 14 March 2022.
  10. "Deterrence and defence". 19 July 2023.
  11. "NATO has no plans to send troops into Ukraine, Stoltenberg says". 24 February 2022.
  12. "NATO won't establish no-fly zone over Ukraine, Stoltenberg says". 4 March 2022.
  13. "The United States and Allies Sharing Intelligence with Ukraine". 9 May 2022.
  14. "U.S., NATO countries announce massive weapons package for Ukraine". 20 January 2023.
  15. "NATO Weapons Must Not Be Used to Attack Russian Territory, Says Scholz". 5 February 2023.
  16. "Ukrainian Intelligence Announces Landing Operation in Crimea". Live UA Map.
  17. "Russia's "ultimate" red line is as hollow as the first ten". 3 October 2023.
  18. "Ukraine: Russia's "red line"". 18 February 2022.
  19. "Putin's 'red line' over Ukraine: a new test of European and transatlantic resolve". December 2021.
  20. "Who supplies weapons to Ukraine?". 14 February 2022.
  21. "NATO Countries Pour Weapons Into Ukraine, Risking Conflict With Russia". 2 March 2022.
  22. "Will markets take the strain from the Russia-Ukraine crisis?". 24 February 2022.
  23. "Putin says sanctions over Ukraine are like a declaration of war". 5 March 2022.
  24. "Western arms convoys to Ukraine are 'legitimate targets,' Russia warns". 11 March 2022.
  25. "Ukraine war: Putin warns against foreign intervention". 27 April 2022.
  26. "Putin warns United States against supplying Ukraine longer range missiles". 5 June 2022.
  27. "Russia warns West of weapons repercussions, pounds Ukraine". 2 June 2022.
  28. "Ukrainians Thank North Macedonia For Supply Of Soviet-Era Tanks". 6 August 2022.
  29. "Russian Envoy Warns Germany about Passed 'Red Line'". 12 September 2022.
  30. "Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin's red lines". 1 June 2023.
  31. "Russia says longer-range U.S. missiles for Kyiv would cross red line". 15 September 2022.
  32. "Russian hawks push Putin to escalate as US crosses more 'red lines'". 12 September 2023.
  33. "Don't arm Ukraine with Patriot missiles, Ex-Russian president Medvedev warns 'criminal entity' NATO". 29 November 2022.
  34. "Russia fumes at West's decision to send tanks to Ukraine, says red lines have been crossed". 25 January 2023.
  35. "Russia warns West of 'enormous risks' if Ukraine is supplied with F-16 jets". 20 May 2023.
  36. "Russia warns US not to provide longer-range missiles to Ukraine". 15 September 2023.
  37. "Ukraine Fires ATACMS Missile at Russian Forces for the First Time". 17 October 2023.
  38. "Putin calls US supply of ATACMS weapons to Ukraine 'another mistake'". 18 October 2023.
  39. "Where does Russia sanctions policy go from here?". 17 March 2022.
  40. "Russia-Ukraine crisis: How likely is it to escalate into broader war?". 23 February 2022.
  41. "Ukraine: Nato will respond if Russia uses chemical weapons, warns Biden". 25 March 2022.
  42. "Arrest warrant may signal the beginning of the end for Putin". 19 March 2023.
  43. "Russia risks war with NATO in Black Sea, former top commander in Europe warns". 16 August 2023.
  44. "The West must cross more red lines in the Ukraine war, says Lithuanian president". 12 May 2023.
  45. "The path to peace in Ukraine runs directly through Putin's red lines". 14 February 2023.
  46. "Any "red lines" left for Putin?". 31 January 2023.
  47. "Macron promises 'first Western tanks' for Ukraine". 4 January 2023.
  48. "UK considering supplying Ukraine with Challenger 2 tanks to fight Russian forces". 9 January 2023.
  49. "Britain has delivered long-range 'Storm Shadow' cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of expected counteroffensive, sources say". 12 May 2023.
  50. "Poland delivers first Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine". 24 February 2023.
  51. "Media: Spain to deliver first Leopard tanks to Ukraine after Easter". 29 March 2023.
  52. "Ambassador: UK to provide twice the promised Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine". 27 July 2023.
  53. "Putin Is Running out of Red Lines". 24 May 2023.
  54. "US ambassador to the UN says China would cross 'red line' by providing lethal aid to Russia". 19 February 2023.
  55. "Ukraine war: Pressure builds on South Korea to send arms to Kyiv". 8 July 2023.
  56. "Georgia's future may hinge on Russia's war in Ukraine". 20 March 2023.
  57. "ran will cross 'red line' with supplies of missiles to Russia - Kuleba". 5 January 2023.
  58. "China drew nuclear red line for Russia in Ukraine". 6 July 2023.
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