Demographics of Lebanon

Lebanon's religious divisions are extremely complicated, and the country is made up by a multitude of religious groupings. The ecclesiastical and demographic patterns of the sects and denominations are complex. Divisions and rivalries between groups date back as far as 15 centuries, and still are a factor today. The pattern of settlement has changed little since the 7th century, but instances of civil strife and ethnic cleansing, most recently during the Lebanese Civil War, has brought some important changes to the religious map of the country. (See also History of Lebanon.)

Lebanon has by far the largest proportion of Christians of any Middle Eastern country, but both Christians and Muslims are sub-divided into many splinter sects and denominations. Population statistics are highly controversial. The various denominations and sects each have vested interests in inflating their own numbers. Shias, Sunnis, Maronites and Eastern Orthodox (the four largest denominations) all often claim that their particular religious affiliation holds a majority in the country, adding up to over 150% of the total population, even before counting the other denominations. One of the rare things that most Lebanese religious leaders will agree on is to avoid a new general census, for fear that it could trigger a new round of denominational conflict. The last official census was performed in 1932.

Religion has traditionally been of overriding importance in defining the Lebanese population. Dividing state power between the religious denominations and sects, and granting religious authorities judicial power, dates back to Ottoman times (the millet system). The practice was reinforced during French mandate, when Christian groups were granted privileges. This system of government, while partly intended as a compromise between sectarian demands, has caused tensions that still dominate Lebanese politics to this day.

The Christian population majority is believed to have ended in the early 1970s, but government leaders would agree to no change in the political power balance. This led to Muslim demands for increased representation, and the constant sectarian tension slid into violent conflict in 1958 (prompting U.S. intervention) and again in the grueling Lebanese Civil War, in 1975–90.

Natural Growth Rate in Lebanon throughout years

The balance of power has been slightly adjusted in the 1943 National Pact, an informal agreement struck at independence, in which positions of power were divided according to the 1932 census. The Sunni elite was then accorded more power, but Maronites continued to dominate the system. The sectarian balance was again adjusted towards the Muslim side but simultaneously further reinforced and legitimized. Shia Muslims (by now the second largest sect) then gained additional representation in the state apparatus, and the obligatory Christian-Muslim representation in Parliament was downgraded from a 6:5 to a 1:1 ratio. Christians of various denominations were then generally thought to constitute about 40% of the population, although often Muslim leaders would cite lower numbers, and some Christians would claim that they still held a majority of the population.

An estimate of the area distribution of Lebanon's main religious groups

Distribution of Lebanon's religious groups according to 2009 municipal election data

The present Lebanese Constitution officially acknowledges 18 religious groups (see below). These have the right to handle family law according to their courts and traditions, and they are the basic players in Lebanon's complex sectarian politics.

• Alawite
• Armenian Catholic
• Armenian Orthodox
• Assyrian Church of the East
• Chaldean Catholic
• Copts
• Druze
• Greek Orthodox
• Isma'ili
• Jewish
• Latin Catholic
• Maronite Catholic
• Melkite Greek Catholic
• Protestant
• Sunni
• Shia
• Syriac Catholic Church
• Syriac Orthodox Church

Note: stateless Palestinians and Syrians are not included in the statistics below since they do not hold Lebanese citizenship. The numbers only include the present population of Lebanon, and not the Lebanese diaspora.

The 1932 census stated that Christians made up 50% of the resident population. Maronites, the largest among the Christian denomination and then largely in control of the state apparatus, accounted for 29% of the total resident population.

The total population of Lebanon was reported to be 1,411,000 in 1956.[13] The largest communities were Maronites (424,000), Sunni Muslims (286,000), Shiite Muslims(250,000), Greek Orthodox (149,000), Greek Catholics (91,000), Druzes (88,000), Armenian Orthodox (64,000), Armenian Catholics (15,000), Protestants (14,000), Jews (7,000), Syriac Catholics (6,000), Syriac Orthodox (5,000), Latins (4,000) and Nestorian Chaldeans (1,000).[13]

A 2010 study conducted by Statistics Lebanon, a Beirut-based research firm, cited by the United States Department of State found that Lebanon's population of approximately 4.3 million was estimated to be:[14]

• 45% Christian (Maronite, Eastern Orthodox, Melkite Catholic, Protestant, other Christian denominations non-native to Lebanon like Armenian Orthodox, Armenian Catholic, Syriac Orthodox, Syriac Catholic, Roman Catholic, Chaldean, Assyrian, and Copt)
• 48% Islam (Shia and Sunni)
• 5.2% Druze (included within the Muslim group in the Lebanese Constitution.)

There is also a very small number of other religious minorities such as, Baháʼís, Buddhists, Hindus and Mormons.[14]

In 2022, the CIA World Factbook specified that of the citizen population (data do not include Lebanon's sizable Syrian and Palestinian refugee populations), 67.8% are Muslims (31.9% Sunni, 31.2% Shia, with smaller percentages of Alawites and Ismailis), 32.4% are Christians (mostly Maronites, Eastern Orthodox, Melkite Catholics, Protestant, Armenian Apostolic, Assyrian Church of the East, Syriac Orthodox, Chaldean Catholic, Syriac Catholic), 4.5% are Druze, and there are "very small numbers of Jews, Baha'is, Buddhists, and Hindus".[15]

A map of religious and ethnic communities of Syria and Lebanon (1935)

According to the CIA World Factbook,[15] in 2021 the Muslim population was estimated at 60% within Lebanese territory and 20% of the over 4 million[5][6][7] Lebanese diaspora population. In 2012 a more detailed breakdown of the size of each Muslim sect in Lebanon was made:

• Shia Muslim are around 31.2% of the total population.[17][18] The Speaker of Parliament is always a Shia Muslim, as it is the only high post that Shias are eligible for.[19][20][21][22] Shiites are largely concentrated in the Beqaa Valley, Southern Lebanon and in Dahieh (Greater Beirut).[23][24][25]

• Sunni Muslims constitute about 31.9%[17] of the total population. Sunnis are the only sect eligible for the post of Prime Minister[26] Sunnis are mainly concentrated in West Beirut, North Lebanon, Sidon, Central and Western Beqaa, and Akkar in the north.[23]

• Other Muslim sects have a small presence, with the Isma'ilis and Alawites combined comprising less than 1% of the population and are included among Lebanese Shia Muslims. Alawites are eligible for two seats in the Lebanese parliament, representing Alawites of Akkar and Tripoli.

Religion map of Lebanon by municipality according to municipal elections data.

According to the CIA World Factbook,[15] in 2021, the Christian population in Lebanon was estimated at 35%. In 2012 a more detailed breakdown of the size of each Christian sect in Lebanon was made:

• Maronite Christians are the largest of the Christian groups who in total account for about 32.4% of the total population of Lebanon.[17] They have had a long and continuous association with the Roman Catholic Church, but have their own patriarch, liturgy, and customs. Traditionally they had good relations with the Western world, especially France[27] and the Vatican.[28] After 1920 they traditionally dominated the Lebanese government and civil positions, although their influence significantly diminished following the Lebanese Civil War and Taif Agreement. Today the Maronites are believed to compose about 26% of the population, concentrated mainly in the province of Mount Lebanon and Eastern Beirut (Greater Beirut).

• The second largest Christian group is the Eastern Orthodox that constitute at least 9%[24] of the population. The Orthodox church is existent in other parts of the Arab world, especially in Syria and among Palestinian Christians. Orthodox Christians were often noted for their Pan-Arab and Pan-Syrian leanings, and have close relations with Eastern Orthodox European countries like Greece, Cyprus, Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Serbia and Romania.

The Deputy Speaker of Parliament and the deputy Prime Minister are reserved for Eastern Orthodox Christians.

• The Melkite Catholics are thought to constitute about 6%[24] of the population.

• The Protestants are thought to constitute about 1%[24] of the population.

• The remaining Christian churches are thought to constitute another 5%[24] of the population (Roman Catholics, Armenian Apostolic, Armenian Catholic, Syriac Orthodox, Syriac Catholic, and Assyrians.)

The Druze constitute 5%[15] of the population and are almost entirely concentrated in Aley and Chouf in southern Mount Lebanon, and in the Hasbaya and Rashaya districts.[17] Even though the faith originally developed out of Isma'ili Shia Islam, most Druze do not identify as Muslims,[29][30] and do not accept the five pillars of Islam.[31]

Other religions account for only an estimated 0.3% of the population mainly foreign temporary workers, according to the CIA World Factbook. There remains a very small Jewish population, traditionally centered in Beirut. It has been larger: most Jews left the country after the Lebanese Civil War (1975–1990) as thousands of Lebanese did at that time.

With no official figures available, it is estimated that 600,000–900,000 persons fled the country during the Lebanese Civil War (1975–90). Although some have since returned, this permanently disturbed Lebanese population growth and greatly complicated demographic statistics.

Another result of the war was a large number of internally displaced persons. This especially affected the southern Shia community, as Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon in 1978, 1982, and 1996 prompted waves of mass emigration, in addition to the continual strain of occupation and fighting between Israel and Hezbollah (mainly 1982 to 2000).

Many Shias from Southern Lebanon resettled in the suburbs south of Beirut. After the war, the pace of Christian emigration accelerated, as many Christians felt discriminated against in a Lebanon under increasingly oppressive Syrian occupation.

According to a UNDP study, as much as 10% of the Lebanese had a disability in 1990.[32] Other studies have pointed to the fact that this portion of society is highly marginalized due to the lack of educational and governmental support of their advancement.[32]

The website Our World in Data prepared the following estimates based on statistics from the Population Department of the United Nations.[33]

Armenian Church in north Beirut

Lebanese Armenians, Jews and Iranians form more distinct ethnic minorities, all of them in possession of a separate languages (Armenian, Hebrew, Persian) and a national home area (Armenia, Israel, Iran) outside of Lebanon. However, they combined total 5% of the population.

During the French Mandate of Lebanon, there was a fairly large French minority and a tiny Italian minority. Most of the French and Italian settlers left after Lebanese independence in 1943 and only 22,000 French Lebanese and 4,300 Italian Lebanese continue to live in Lebanon. The most important legacy of the French Mandate is the frequent use and knowledge of the French language by most of the educated Lebanese people, and Beirut is still known as the "Paris of the Middle East".

Around 175,555 Palestinian refugees were registered in Lebanon with the UNRWA in 2014, who are refugees or descendants of refugees from the 1948 Arab–Israeli War. Some 53% live in 12 Palestine refugee camps, who "suffer from serious problems" such as poverty and overcrowding.[38] Some of these may have emigrated during the civil war, but there are no reliable figures available. There are also a number of Palestinians who are not registered as UNRWA refugees, because they left earlier than 1948 or were not in need of material assistance. The exact number of Palestinians remain a subject of great dispute and the Lebanese government will not provide an estimate. A figure of 400,000 Palestinian refugees would mean that Palestinians constitute less than 7% of the resident population of Lebanon.

Palestinians living in Lebanon are considered foreigners and are under the same restrictions on employment applied to other foreigners. Prior to 2010, they were under even more restrictive employment rules which permitted, other than work for the U.N., only the most menial employment. They are not allowed to attend public schools, own property, or make an enforceable will.[39] Palestinian refugees, who constitute nearly 6.6% of the country's population, have long been denied basic rights in Lebanon. They are not allowed to attend public schools, own property or pass on inheritances, measures Lebanon says it has adopted to preserve their right to return to their property in what constitutes Israel now.

Their presence is controversial, and resisted by large segments of the Christian population, who argue that the primarily Sunni Muslim Palestinians dilute Christian numbers. Many Shia Muslims also look unfavorably upon the Palestinian presence since the refugee camps have tended to be concentrated in their home areas. The Lebanese Sunnis, however, would be happy to see these Palestinians given the Lebanese nationality, thus increasing the Lebanese Sunni population by well over 10% and tipping the fragile electoral balance much in favor of the Sunnis. Late prime minister Rafiq Hariri —himself a Sunni— had hinted on more than one occasion on the inevitability of granting these refugees Lebanese citizenship. Thus far the refugees lack Lebanese citizenship as well as many rights enjoyed by the rest of the population, and are confined to severely overcrowded refugee camps, in which construction rights are severely constricted.

Palestinians may not work in a large number of professions, such as lawyers and doctors. However, after negotiations between Lebanese authorities and ministers from the Palestinian National Authority some professions for Palestinians were allowed (such as taxi driver and construction worker). The material situation of the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon is difficult, and they are believed to constitute the poorest community in Lebanon, as well as the poorest Palestinian community with the possible exception of Gaza Strip refugees. Their primary sources of income are UNRWA aid and menial labor sought in competition with Syrian guest workers.

The Palestinians are majority Sunni Muslims with a Christian minority, though at some point Christians counted as high as 40% with Muslims at 60%. The numbers of Palestinian Christians has diminished in later years, as many have managed to leave Lebanon.

60,000 Palestinians have received Lebanese citizenship.

In 1976, the then Syrian president Hafez al-Assad sent troops into Lebanon to fight PLO forces on behalf of Christian militias. This led to escalated fighting until a cease-fire agreement later that year that allowed for the stationing of Syrian troops within Lebanon. The Syrian presence in Lebanon quickly changed sides; soon after they entered Lebanon they had flip-flopped and began to fight the Christian nationalists in Lebanon they allegedly entered the country to protect. The Kateab Party and the Lebanese Forces under Bachir Gemayel strongly resisted the Syrians in Lebanon. In 1989, 40,000 Syrian troops remained in central and eastern Lebanon under the supervision of the Syrian government. Although, the Taif Accord, established in the same year, called for the removal of Syrian troops and transfer of arms to the Lebanese army, the Syrian Army remained in Lebanon until the Lebanese Cedar Revolution in 2005 ended the Syrian occupation of Lebanon.

In 1994, the Lebanese government under the pressure of the Syrian government, gave Lebanese passports to thousands of Syrians.[40]

There are nearly 1.08 million registered[41] Syrian refugees in Lebanon[42] but is estimated that Lebanon hosts 1.5 million.[43]

There are an estimated 40,000 to 80,000 Iraqi Assyrian refugees in Lebanon. The vast majority of them are undocumented, with a large number having been deported or put in prison.[44] They belong to various denominations, including the Assyrian Church of the East, Chaldean Catholic Church, and Syriac Catholic Church.

Due to the US-led invasion of Iraq, Lebanon received a mass influx of Iraqi refugees numbering at around 100,000. The vast majority of them are undocumented, with a large number having been deported or put in prison.[44]

There are an estimated 60,000 to 100,000 Kurdish refugees from Turkey and Syria within Lebanese territory. Many of them are undocumented. As of 2012, around 40% of all Kurds in Lebanon do not have Lebanese citizenship.[45]

The Turkish people began to migrate to Lebanon once the Ottoman sultan Selim I conquered the region in 1516. Turks were encouraged to stay in Lebanon by being rewarded with land and money.[46] Today the Turkish minority numbers approximately 80,000.[47] Moreover, since the Syrian Civil War, approximately 125,000 to 150,000 Syrian Turkmen refugees arrived in Lebanon, and hence they now outnumber the long established Turkish minority who settled since the Ottoman era.[48][49]

The Circassians migrated to the Ottoman Empire including Lebanon and neighboring countries in the 18th and 19th century. However, they are mostly located in Akkar Governorate, in which they have come to Berkail since 1754. Today the Circassian minority numbers approximately 100,000.[50][51]