Hurricane Hilary

Hurricane Hilary was a large, potent Category 4 Pacific hurricane in August 2023 which brought torrential rainfall and gusty winds to the Pacific Coast of Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula and the Southwestern United States, resulting in widespread flooding and numerous mudslides. Hilary broke records in four U.S. states for wettest tropical cyclone or its remnants.

Hurricane Hilary
Hilary at peak intensity while paralleling the western coast of Mexico on August 18
Meteorological history
FormedAugust 16, 2023
ExtratropicalAugust 21, 2023
DissipatedAugust 22, 2023
Category 4 hurricane
1-minute sustained (SSHWS/NWS)
Highest winds145 mph (230 km/h)
Lowest pressure939 mbar (hPa); 27.73 inHg
Overall effects
Fatalities2 indirect
Damage>$615 million (2023 USD)
Areas affectedWestern Mexico, Revillagigedo Islands, Baja California peninsula, Western United States

Part of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season

The eighth named storm, sixth hurricane, and fourth major hurricane of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season, Hilary originated from a disturbance south of Mexico associated with a tropical wave that entered the Pacific Ocean from Central America on August 12. The disturbance gradually grew more organized, and was named Tropical Storm Hilary while off the coast of Manzanillo, Colima, on August 16. Hilary quickly strengthened into a hurricane the next day. While tracking west-northwestward on August 17 and 18, it underwent rapid intensification, reaching its peak as a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 145 mph (235 km/h) and a central pressure of 939 mbar (27.7 inHg). The cyclone then quickly weakened the following day due to the effects of cooler sea surface temperatures, drier air, and increasing wind shear. After weakening into a tropical storm, Hilary made landfall in San Quintín, Baja California, at 18:00 UTC on August 20, about 215 mi (345 km) south-southeast of San Diego, California. It then tracked northward into California, retaining its tropical characteristics through the morning of August 21. It then transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone while over the southern San Joaquin Valley. Hilary was the first tropical storm to enter California since Nora in 1997.[1]

In anticipation of "catastrophic and life-threatening flooding", the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its first-ever tropical storm warning for Southern California, extending from the Mexico–United States border to just north of Los Angeles.[2] Persistent heavy rainfall, potentially "more than a year’s worth of rain" in some areas, was forecasted. Due to this, flood watches were issued, affecting about 26 million people across four states (Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah), and the entire region was placed under a high risk threat for flash flooding by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).[3][4][5]

Two fatalities, both in Mexico, have been linked to Hilary.[6][7] Additionally, the storm left behind flooded roads, mudslides and downed trees in the Baja California peninsula and in Southern California. Even so, its overall impact on the region was less severe than initially feared.[8][9][10]

Meteorological history

Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map key
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
triangle Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

On August 12, a tropical wave traversing Central America producing widespread rain showers and thunderstorms entered the far eastern Pacific.[11] A broad area of low pressure developed within the wave on August 14, off the southern coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.[12] The disturbance gradually became better organized during the following day, and a well-defined circulation along with developing convective banding features were observed on the morning of August 16, thus prompting the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to classify it as Tropical Storm Hilary.[13] Convection near the storm's center increased throughout the day, dense overcast started to develop over the growing storm as a result, and an eye began to form at its center.[14] Consequently, Hilary quickly strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane by 12:00 UTC on August 17, while located about 320 mi (515 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Colima.[15] Deep convection intensified beneath the system's cloud tops, which had cooled to below −112 °F (−80 °C), and its expanding upper-level outflow pattern became symmetric.[16] Hilary continued to rapidly intensify, reaching Category 4 strength at 06:00 UTC on August 18.[17]

By 15:00 UTC that day, Hilary's intensity leveled off with peak sustained winds at 145 mph (230 km/h), an increase of 80 mph (130 km/h) over a 24hour period.[18] Hilary benefited from exceptional conditions during its intensification phase, with sea-surface temperatures of near 86 °F (30 °C), low wind shear, and high relative humidity levels.[19] A hurricane hunter flight later that day confirmed that Hilary was a Category 4 hurricane, though not as strong as expected, with maximum sustained winds determined to be at 130 mph (215 km/h).[20] The hurricane initially tracked west-northwestward, then toward the northwest during this time, responding to the steering influences of a trough of low pressure to its north near the California coast and a ridge of high pressure over the central United States.[16][18][19] As those influences began drawing Hilary north-northwestward on the morning of August 19, asymmetrical convective patterns developed as the deep convection on the west side of the system was being eroded by an intrusion of dry and stable air. This caused the hurricane to weaken to Category 3 strength, with winds of 125 mph (205 km/h).[21] By the end of that day, the hurricane had dropped to Category 1 as a result of the adverse effects of cooler waters, drier air, and increasing shear.[22] At around 10:30 UTC the eye of the storm briefly touched the mainland at Punta Eugenia, Baja California Sur, before passing over the nearby inhabited islands of Natividad and Cedros.[23]

Hilary made landfall at around 18:00 UTC on August 20, with sustained winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) in San Quintín, Baja California, or about 215 mi (345 km) south-southeast of San Diego, California.[24][25] The storm continued to move north-northwestward after landfall, and crossed into California about six hours later, south-southwest of Palm Springs.[26] Late that day, the storm's low-level center became increasingly diffused and more difficult to track, eventually briefly reconsolidating along the coast of south-central Los Angeles. On the morning of August 21, while moving over the southern San Joaquin Valley, Hilary became a post-tropical cyclone.[27] Its upper level remnants then tracked north into the Rocky Mountains due to a jet stream.[28]

Preparations

Mexico

The Mexican government issued watches for southern Baja California Sur on August 17.[29] They were upgraded to warnings later that day.[30] Hurricane watches were issued for western parts of the Baja California peninsula at 03:00 UTC on August 18, and by 15:00 UTC the same day, they were upgraded to hurricane warnings as hurricane watches were issued for the west coast of Baja California.[31]

Ports were closed to navigation along the Pacific coast from Oaxaca to Colima on August 17.[32][33] School classes and public activities were cancelled in Baja California, and in Baja California Sur, a baseball game was postponed and ports along the state's coast were closed.[34] Several schools in Cabo San Lucas were used as temporary shelters, and 18,000 soldiers were on alert.[35] In La Paz, law enforcement patrolled closed beaches, while schools in five municipalities were shut down.[35] Around 20 flights were cancelled at Los Cabos International Airport.[36] Tijuana and Ensenada closed their beaches August 19.[37][38] Across five islands in the hurricane's path, 850 people were evacuated.[39]

United States

The Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook for August 20

On August 18, the NHC issued its first-ever tropical storm watch for Southern California, and a level 4/high risk for excessive rainfall was issued by the Weather Prediction Center.[40] This became the first ever high risk of flash flooding in the desert valleys of Southern California east of the Peninsular Ranges.[41] A flood watch was also issued for portions of California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona.[5] Twelve hours later, the NHC upgraded the tropical storm watch to a tropical storm warning for the region.[42] On August 19, the level 4/high risk from the Weather Prediction Center was continued and expanded.[43]

Amtrak cancelled its August 19 run of the westbound Sunset Limited due to the storm;[44] the eastbound August 20 run was also cancelled with its Texas Eagle attachment originating in San Antonio.[45] They also truncated the August 19 runs of westbound Southwest Chief and the southbound Coast Starlight to Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Emeryville, California, respectively.[46] The August 20 runs of these two trains going eastbound and westbound respectively would also originate from these locations.[47] Numerous Pacific Surfliner trains were also cancelled, forced to run on modified schedules, or delayed between August 19-21 as well.[48] Parts of Joshua Tree National Park, Death Valley National Park, Mojave National Preserve, and Lake Mead are closed.[35][49][50][51] The Los Angeles County Department of Parks and Recreation announced that all parks and facilities were closed on Sunday and Monday. The Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department advised all people to leave Catalina Island on August 19 and Avalon Bay was closed to boats and ships.[40][52] Additional resources were deployed to the island by the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department and the Los Angeles County Fire Department.[52] The San Bernardino County Sheriff's Department issued evacuation warnings for Oak Glen, Forest Falls, Mountain Home Village, Angelus Oaks and northeast Yucaipa also on August 19.[40] Evacuation warnings were also issued for Orange County, including areas near the Bond Fire scar.[53] The launch for Falcon 9 and Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base near Los Angeles was postponed by SpaceX.[54][55] An emergency operations center was opened in San Diego and Los Angeles.[56][57][58] Southwest Airlines flights departing from Palm Springs International Airport were cancelled.[59] Other airports in the region that had flights affected include Los Angeles, Bakersfield, Burbank, Long Beach, Ontario, Orange County, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and San Diego. DoorDash suspended operations in numerous areas across southern California.[60]

A mesoscale discussion from the Weather Prediction Center discussing flash flooding expected across most of Southern California as a result of Hurricane Hilary

Major League Baseball rescheduled three games in advance of Hilary: one each for the San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Los Angeles Angels.[61] Major League Soccer home games for the LA Galaxy and Los Angeles FC were also rescheduled.[62] However, the National Football League did not cancel a Los Angeles Chargers preseason game at SoFi Stadium. Del Mar Racetrack canceled the race meeting scheduled on August 20. This is only the second time in the 84-year track's history that such a cancellation occurred.[63] In addition, no live audience was permitted to attend the August 20 games for VALORANT Champions Los Angeles at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall.[64] The United States Navy moved carriers and ships out to sea and out of Hilary's path, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt, and to park aircraft in hangars.[65] Federal Emergency Management Agency staff and personnel were ordered to be positioned in southern California by President Joe Biden, and Biden urged residents and people in the storm's path to take precautions.[66][67][68] Nevada governor Joe Lombardo deployed 100 National Guard and Nevada National Guard troops to assist southern Nevada impacted by severe weather associated with Hilary.[69][70] Lombardo also declared a state of emergency, along with emergencies in Clark and Nye counties.[70][71] California governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency for southern California.[72][73] The California National Guard preemptively deployed to multiple locations across southern California on August 19.[74] The American Red Cross opened shelters in Imperial, San Bernardino, and Riverside counties.[75] Emergency shelters were also opened by local governments in Yucca Valley and Twentynine Palms.[76]

Ongoing strikes by the Writers Guild of America and SAG-AFTRA were cancelled for Monday in Los Angeles in preparation for Hilary.[77] A concert at the Hollywood Bowl was postponed, and all Los Angeles County Department of Parks and Recreation areas were closed.[78] Disneyland and Disney California Adventure were closed early. Legoland California, SeaWorld San Diego and San Diego Zoo were closed on August 20.[79][80] The Los Angeles Zoo, Six Flags Magic Mountain, and Knott's Berry Farm were also closed.[81] California State University, Los Angeles and California State University, Fullerton canceled classes on August 21.[82][83] All campuses in the Bear Valley Unified School District were closed on August 21.[81] Numerous airlines offered travel waivers to airports in southern California.[84] Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass signed a local emergency declaration on August 19.[81] On August 20, 2023, the Los Angeles Unified School District announced that campuses would be closed the following day.[85][86] Several schools in Orange County were closed.[83] Fullerton College was closed as well, and schools across the Anaheim Union High School District, Anaheim Elementary School District, and the South Orange County Community College District were also closed.[83]

On August 20, the Storm Prediction Center issued a level 2/slight risk in Southern California, which included 5% risk of tornadoes.[87] The Weather Prediction Center also continued the level 4/high risk, with forecaster David Roth stating that "the 00z NAM CONEST advertises local amounts of 17 inches (430 mm)+, which would be exceedingly rare, bordering on unique, for the region from a tropical cyclone and unique for Nevada, which had it's first ever High Risk WPC Day issued for the state.[88] The 100 year ARI is forecast to be exceeded over a broad area."[89] At 16:00 UTC, the Weather Prediction Center changed its outlook slightly, noting that model guidance indicated the chance for 5 inches (130 mm) of rainfall in the mountains of Idaho from the system.[90]

Impact

Mexico

Heavy rains from the developing storm affected portions of southern and western Mexico.[19] Coastal areas of Sinaloa recorded torrential rains from the hurricane's passage, with its first fatality reported on August 18 in Navolato when an SUV and its driver were washed away.[6] On August 28, the government of Baja California Sur calculated the damage statewide to be 250 million pesos (US$14.7 million).[91]

On the Baja California peninsula, nearly 1,900 people were evacuated to shelters.[39] Torrential rainfall caused widespread flooding and landslides in Baja California Sur. One man died in Santa Rosalía, when his vehicle was washed away by floodwaters.[36] Officials in Baja California reported numerous mud and rock slides across the state along with several power outages.[8]

United States

According to catastrophe modeler Karen Clark & Company, insurance losses reached US$600 million across the Western United States.[92]

Wind gusts of up to 50 mph (80 km/h) were widespread across Southern California as Hilary passed through.[27] The strongest gusts were recorded in Los Angeles County  87 mph (140 km/h) at Magic Mountain, and San Diego County  84 mph (135 km/h) at Big Black Mountain.[93] On August 20, downtown Los Angeles and San Diego each recorded its wettest single summer day on record (June through August) with 2.48 in (63 mm) and 1.82 in (46 mm) of precipitation respectively. Palm Springs recorded 3.18 in (81 mm), also a single summer day record amount.[27] Rainfall at Furnace Creek in Death Valley totaled 2.20 in (56 mm), setting a new single-day rainfall record; the amount was more than the annual average rainfall of 2.15 in (55 mm).[94] The highest rain totals were recorded in the San Bernardino Mountains  11.73 in (298 mm) at Raywood Flats, and the San Jacinto Mountains  11.74 in (298 mm) at Mount San Jacinto.[93]

In California, portions of I-8, I-10, I-15, SR 14, and the Pacific Coast Highway closed due to flooding and rockslides.[75][81][95][96] All roads in Death Valley National Park were damaged and closed.[94] Floodwaters entered Eisenhower Medical Center in Rancho Mirage, but this did not impact operations there.[97] 9-1-1 lines were down in Palm Springs, Cathedral City, and Indio.[75] Vehicles were inundated in Palm Springs, and Coachella Valley.[97] Local states of emergency were declared in Palm Springs[97] and in Indio.[75] A tornado warning was issued for Alpine and Descanso, in San Diego County.[98] Water rescues occurred across the San Diego area.[39] At least 1,000 flights were cancelled and 3,700 were delayed across the region.[84] More than 5,000 customers were left without electricity according to the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power.[99] Also, an August 21 Major League Baseball game scheduled for Angel Stadium in Anaheim was postponed due to the wet conditions at the ballpark.[100][101] The storm spawned a tornado in Fresno, which damaged dozens of trees and buildings.[102]

New U.S. wettest tropical cyclones and their remnants records[nb 1]
StatePrecipitationLocation
Idaho3.00 in (76 mm)Dollarhide Summit
Montana2.30 in (58 mm)Albro Lake
Carrot Basin
Nevada9.20 in (234 mm)Lee Canyon
Oregon3.29 in (84 mm)Morgan Mountain
Sources: [28][93]

The strongest winds beyond California primarily occurred in Nevada and Utah at high-elevation locations above 9,000 ft (2,700 m), with the weather station at Cardiff Pass (Utah) recording a gust of 75 mph (121 km/h).[93] Records for wettest (total rainfall) tropical cyclones and their remnants were broken in four states: Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and Oregon. The new mark in Nevada is more than double the previous record.[28] The resulting flash flooding there forced the Spring Mountains National Recreation Area to close indefinitely.[103]

Arizona received much less precipitation from Hilary than forecasted.[104] In contrast to Nevada, where several locations received over 2 in (51 mm) of precipitation, only one did so in Arizona  Hilltop recorded (2.10 in (53 mm);[93] most places received less than 1 in (25 mm).[104]

Hilary's push toward Southern California coincided with a 5.1 magnitude earthquake that struck north of Los Angeles near Ojai, California, along with numerous aftershocks. Only minor damage and no injuries were reported from the quakes.[105][106] As a result, the term "hurriquake" trended on social media.[9][107]

See also

Notes

  1. For the 72–hour period between 7:00 a.m. PDT August 18, through 7:00 a.m. PDT August 21.

References

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  44. "As of 12:15am CT, Sunset Limited Train 1, which is scheduled to depart New Orleans (NOL) on 8/19, is now canceled due to severe weather caused by Hurricane Hilary. For further assistance call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL" (Post on X). X. Archived from the original on August 20, 2023. Retrieved August 19, 2023.
  45. "As of 5:12 am PT, Due to impending severe weather, Sunset Limited Train 2, which is scheduled to depart Los Angeles (LAX) on 8/20, is now canceled. For further assistance, please call/text 1-800-USA-RAIL". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 22, 2023. Retrieved August 21, 2023."SERVICE ALERT: As of 4:30 am CT, Texas Eagle Train 422, scheduled to depart Los Angeles (LAX) on 8/20, will originate in San Antonio (SAS). Please contact 1-800-USA-RAIL to make changes to your reservation". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 22, 2023. Retrieved August 21, 2023.
  46. "As of 3:46 pm CT, Southwest Chief Train 3, which is scheduled to depart Chicago (CHI) on 8/19, will terminate in Albuquerque (ABQ) as a precaution due to a tropical storm warning for Hurricane Hilary. For traveling assistance, please call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL" (Post on X). X. Retrieved August 20, 2023."As of 2:46 pm PT, Coast Starlight Train 11, which departed Seattle (SEA) on 8/19, will terminate at Emeryville (EMY). For further assistance, please call/text 1-800-USA-RAIL" (Post on X). X. Retrieved August 20, 2023.
  47. "As of 4:12pm PT, Coast Starlight Train 14 which originates out of LAX on 8/20 will now originate out of Emeryville (EMY) due to the impending storm. Customers traveling between LAX and EMY please call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL for further assistance". X. Archived from the original on August 20, 2023. Retrieved August 20, 2023."Southwest Chief Train 4 which departs LAX on 8/20 will now originate in Albuquerque (ALQ) due to an impending storm. Customers traveling between LAX and ABQ please call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL for further assistance". X. Retrieved August 20, 2023.
  48. "ALERT: Trains 573 & 580 are canceled today, 8/19 due to equipment issues. Due to tropical storm Hilary, trains 562, 573, 580, & 591 are canceled tmrw, 8/20. Trains 794 & 761 canceled btwn LA & SD Aug 19-21. More cancelations possible. Info: pac.surf/trackadvisories#SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 21, 2023. Retrieved August 21, 2023."UPDATE: As of 5:40 pm PT, due to the impending storm, Train 784 will terminate in Solana Beach (SOL). For traveling assistance, please call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 21, 2023. Retrieved August 21, 2023."ALERT: As of 10:27 am PT, Due to impending weather and track closures, Train 774 will now terminate at Irvine (IRV). For further assistance, please call/text 1-800-USA-RAIL. #PacificSurfliner". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 21, 2023. Retrieved August 21, 2023."ALERT: As of 10:30 am PT, Due to impending weather and track closures, Train 785 will now originate at Irvine (IRV). For further assistance, please call/text 1-800-USA-RAIL. #PacificSurfliner". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 22, 2023. Retrieved August 21, 2023."ALERT: As of 10:30 am PT, Due to impending weather and track closures, Train 785 will now originate at Irvine (IRV). For further assistance, please call/text 1-800-USA-RAIL. #PacificSurfliner". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 22, 2023. Retrieved August 21, 2023."ALERT: As of 12:33 pm PT, due to the impending storm, Train 784 will terminate in Los Angeles (LAX). For traveling assistance, please call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Retrieved August 21, 2023."ALERT: As of 12:34 pm PT, due to the impending storm, Train 790 will terminate in Los Angeles (LAX). For traveling assistance, please call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Retrieved August 21, 2023."ALERT: As of 12:35 pm PT, due to the impending storm, Train 586 is canceled in its entirety. For traveling assistance, please call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Retrieved August 21, 2023."ALERT: As of 12:36 pm PT, due to the impending storm, Train 587 & Train 595 are canceled in their entirety. For traveling assistance, please call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Retrieved August 22, 2023."ALERT: As of 12:37 pm PT, due to the impending storm, Train 581 is canceled in its entirety. For traveling assistance, please call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Retrieved August 22, 2023."ALERT: As of 3:13 pm PT, Train 784 is stopped at Oxnard (OXN) due to severe weather conditions. Updates to follow. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Retrieved August 22, 2023."ALERT: As of 4:25 pm PT, Train 794 is stopped at San Luis Obispo (SLO) due to severe weather conditions. Updates to follow. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Retrieved August 22, 2023."ALERT: As of 4:26 pm PT, Train 790 is stopped at Goleta (GTA) due to severe weather conditions. Updates to follow. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Retrieved August 22, 2023."ALERT: As of 4:27 pm PT, Train 777 is stopped at Los Angeles (LAX) due to severe weather conditions. Updates to follow. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Retrieved August 22, 2023."UPDATE: As of 5:21 pm PT, Train 784 remains stopped at Oxnard (OXN) due to severe weather conditions. Lengthy delays are expected. Updates to follow as more information becomes available. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Retrieved August 22, 2023."UPDATE: As of 5:41 pm PT, due to severe weather conditions, Train 784 will terminate in Oxnard (OXN). For traveling assistance, please call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Retrieved August 22, 2023."UPDATE: As of 5:42 pm PT, due to severe weather conditions, Train 777 will terminate in Los Angeles (LAX). For traveling assistance, please call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Retrieved August 22, 2023."UPDATE: As of 5:44 pm PT, due to severe weather conditions, Trains 785 & 790 & 794 are canceled in their entirety. For traveling assistance, please call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Retrieved August 22, 2023."UPDATE/CORRECTION: As of 6:25 pm PT, due to severe weather conditions, Train 785 will terminate in Los Angeles (LAX). For traveling assistance, please call or text 1-800-USA-RAIL. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Retrieved August 22, 2023."UPDATE: Pacific Surfliner train service has resumed following cancellations over the weekend due to Tropical Storm Hilary. As of 9am on Aug. 21, trains are operating between San Diego and San Luis Obispo. #SurflinerAlert". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 22, 2023. Retrieved August 22, 2023.
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