1998 Philippine presidential election

The 1998 Philippine presidential and vice presidential elections were held on May 11, 1998. In the presidential election, Vice President Joseph Estrada won a six-year term as President by a landslide victory. In the vice-presidential race, Senator Gloria Macapagal Arroyo won a six-year term as Vice President, also by a landslide victory. This was the third election where both the president and vice president came from different parties.

1998 Philippine presidential election
May 11, 1998
Turnout86.5% Increase 11.0%
 
Nominee Joseph Estrada Jose de Venecia Jr. Raul Roco
Party LAMMP Lakas Aksyon
Running mate Edgardo Angara Gloria Macapagal Arroyo Irene Santiago
Popular vote 10,722,295 4,268,483 3,720,212
Percentage 39.86% 15.87% 13.38%
 
Nominee Lito Osmeña Alfredo Lim Renato de Villa
Party PROMDI Liberal Reporma
Running mate Ismael Sueno Serge Osmeña Oscar Orbos
Popular vote 3,347,631 2,344,362 1,308,352
Percentage 12.44% 8.71% 4.86%
Presidential election results per province.
President before election

Fidel V. Ramos
Lakas

 Elected President

Joseph Estrada
LAMMP

1998 Philippine vice presidential election
May 11, 1998
 
Candidate Gloria Macapagal Arroyo Edgardo Angara
Party Lakas LAMMP
Popular vote 12,667,252 5,652,068
Percentage 49.56% 22.11%
 
Candidate Oscar Orbos Serge Osmeña
Party Reporma Liberal
Popular vote 3,321,779 2,351,462
Percentage 13.00% 9.20%
Map showing the official results taken from provincial and city certificates of canvass. The inset shows Metro Manila.
Vice President before election

Joseph Estrada
LAMMP

 Elected Vice President

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo
Lakas

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Background

At the tail-end of the presidency of Fidel V. Ramos, several politicians have been jockeying for the nomination of his Lakas-NUCD-UMDP party. This included Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr., Defense Secretary Renato de Villa, and Cebu Governor Lito Osmeña.

The Lakas nominee is widely expected to face Vice President Joseph Estrada, who had been leading candidate in the various opinion polls. Estrada had earlier declared in 1992 that he will not run for president, stating that he intends to retire when he reaches the age of 60 in 1998,[1] but he later recanted this decision.

Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago, who considered herself to have been cheated out of the presidency by Ramos in 1992, was also expected to run again.

Former First Lady Imelda Marcos was also seen to run for the presidency. She was banking on the support of loyalists of deposed president Ferdinand Marcos.

Senator Leticia Ramos-Shahani initially sought to run for president, launching her campaign on July 6, 1997 in Pasig City with Lito Osmeña as her running mate,[2][3] but she eventually decided to back out and run for Governor of Pangasinan instead.[4]

Senator Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who had topped the 1995 Senate election, was also seen to be a strong contender to the presidency, founding the Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino party, with Tito Sotto, who himself topped the 1992 Senate election, widely seen to be her vice presidential running mate.

Senator Raul Roco, who had a noteworthy Senate career up to this point, had the strong backing of the youth via his Aksyon Demokratiko party.

The Lakas convention nominated de Venecia, Ramos handpicked successor. This led to de Villa and Osmeña bolting from Lakas and setting up their own parties. De Venecia picked Arroyo as his running mate.

The Liberal Party nominated Manila mayor Alfredo Lim. Meanwhile, the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP), Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) and Estrada's own Partido ng Masang Pilipino (the forerunner of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) established an electoral pact and formed the Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino. Estrada chose Senator Edgardo Angara of the LDP as his running mate.

Weeks before election day, Marcos withdrew from the election. Estrada had widened his lead among other candidates at this point.

Candidates
Presidential candidate Party Vice presidential candidate Party
Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr. Lakas-NUCD-UMDP Senator Gloria Macapagal Arroyo Lakas-NUCD-UMDP
Defense Secretary Renato de Villa Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma Pangasinan Governor Oscar Orbos Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma
Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago People's Reform Party Senator Francisco Tatad People's Reform Party
Santiago Dumlao Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago Reynaldo Pacheco Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago
Vice President Joseph Estrada Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino Senator Edgardo Angara Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino
Manila Mayor Alfredo Lim Liberal Party Senator Serge Osmeña Liberal Party
MTRCB Chairperson Manuel Morato Partido Bansang Marangal House Secretary-General Camilo Sabio Partido Bansang Marangal
Cebu Governor Emilio Osmeña Probinsya Muna Development Initiative South Cotabato Governor Ismael Sueno Probinsya Muna Development Initiative
Senator Juan Ponce Enrile Independent none
Senator Raul Roco Aksyon Demokratiko Irene Santiago Aksyon Demokratiko

Opinion polling

Social Weather Stations was the primary pollster in the country in 1998.

For president
Pollster Fieldwork date Sample size Margin of error de Venecia de Villa Defensor Santiago Dumlao Estrada Lim Marcos Morato Osmeña Ponce Enrile Roco Undecided
SWS Apr 8–16[5] 1,500 ±3% 12 5 4 0.3 30 13 2 0.2 13 2 10 9
Mar 16–21[6] 1,500 ±3% 14 5 7 0.4 28 14 2 1 9 2 11 7
Feb 21–27[7] 1,500 ±3% 12 6 5 0.1 28 14 2.3 0.6 13 0.9 9 10

For vice president
Pollster Fieldwork date Sample size Margin of error Angara Macapagal Arroyo Orbos Osmeña Pacheco Sabio Santiago Sueño Tatad Undecided
SWS Apr 8–16[5] 1,500 ±3% 16 45 8 14 0.1 0.3 0.9 3 2 9
Mar 16–21[6] 1,500 ±3% 12 47 6 18 0.2 0.5 1 2 4 7
Feb 21–27[7] 1,500 ±3% 13 44 5 14 0.1 0.2 2 2 2 10

Results
Main article: Congressional canvass for the 1998 Philippine presidential election

The 10th Congress canvassed the votes in joint session for a number of days before declaring Estrada and Arroyo as the winners; with Senate President Neptali Gonzales and Speaker De Venecia announcing the victors.

While the official canvassing did not start a fortnight after Election Day, the National Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL) held a parallel and unofficial quick count which was released days after the election and was updated at irregular intervals. NAMFREL based their tally from the seventh copy of the election returns given to them.

In theory, the totals for the official canvassing (derived from the certificates of canvass, which are then derived from the election returns) and the completed NAMFREL quick count should be equal.

For president

Estrada carried the majority of the provinces, his hometown of San Juan City, and Metro Manila.

De Venecia carried his home province of Pangasinan as well as Baguio, Roco carried his home province of Camarines Sur and the rest of the Bicol Region (excluding Masbate), and Osmeña got his foothold over his home province of Cebu and other provinces in the South.

Other candidates also carried their home provinces such as De Villa of Batangas and Siquijor, Enrile of Cagayan and Iloilo City, and Defensor Santiago of Iloilo Province, as well as Tawi-Tawi and Bacolod. Lim was the only major candidate who did not carry any provinces (with the exception of Batanes) and failed to capture his hometown of Manila.

CandidatePartyVotes%
Joseph EstradaLaban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino10,722,29539.86
Jose de Venecia Jr.Lakas–NUCD–UMDP4,268,48315.87
Raul RocoAksyon Demokratiko3,720,21213.83
Lito OsmeñaPROMDI3,347,63112.44
Alfredo LimLiberal Party2,344,3628.71
Renato de VillaPartido para sa Demokratikong Reporma–Lapiang Manggagawa1,308,3524.86
Miriam Defensor SantiagoPeople's Reform Party797,2062.96
Juan Ponce EnrileIndependent343,1391.28
Santiago DumlaoKilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago32,2120.12
Manuel MoratoPartido Bansang Marangal18,6440.07
Total26,902,536100.00
Valid votes26,902,53691.86
Invalid/blank votes[lower-alpha 1]2,383,2398.14
Total votes29,285,775100.00
Registered voters/turnout33,873,66586.46
Source: Nohlen, Grotz, Hartmann, Hasall and Santos[8]
  1. Includes 232,714 votes for Imelda Marcos (Kilusang Bagong Lipunan) who withdrew after the ballots were printed.
Popular vote
Estrada
 
 39.86%
De Venecia
 
 15.87%
Roco
 
 13.83%
Osmeña
 
 12.44%
Lim
 
 8.71%
De Villa
 
 4.86%
Others
 
 4.43%

NAMFREL quick count

Take note that Manuel Morato had a higher number of votes in the NAMFREL quick count than in the official congressional canvass.

NAMFREL quick count result (79.25% of precincts)[9]
Candidate Party Results
Votes  % Diff*
Joseph Estrada LAMMP 8,239,823 39.47% −0.39%
Jose de Venecia Lakas 3,247,06715.55%−0.32%
Raul Roco Aksyon 2,923,84214.00%0.17%
Emilio Osmeña PROMDI 2,454,43211.76%−0.68%
Alfredo Lim Liberal 1,815,6648.70%−0.01%
Renato de Villa Reporma-LM 1,028,8544.93%0.07%
Miriam Defensor Santiago PRP 584,6332.80%−0.16%
Juan Ponce Enrile Independent 297,8011.43%0.15%
Imelda Marcos (withdrew) KBL 232,7141.11%N/A
Santiago DumlaoKilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago29,3270.14%0.02%
Manuel MoratoPartido Bansang Marangal23,2080.07%0.04%
Votes 20,877,365 100.00% —

*Difference from the NAMFREL quick count from the official congressional canvass.

Voter demographics
1998 Presidential vote by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroup Estrada de Venecia Roco Osmeña Other  % of
total vote
Total vote 39 16 13 12 20 100
Region
NCR 33 11 28 4 24 9
CAR 47 24 12 0 17 5
Region I - Ilocos 33 61 2 0 4 6
Region II - Cagayan 44 13 4 1 38 5
Region III - Central Luzon 50 15 17 1 17 7
Region IV - Southern Tagalog 45 10 12 1 32 12
Region V - Bicol 14 8 75 0 3 5
Region VI - Western Visayas 40 12 3 9 36 9
Region VII - Central Visayas 20 12 5 52 11 7
Region VIII - Eastern Visayas 48 18 1 23 10 4
Region IX - Western Mindanao 39 19 4 20 18 6
Region X - Northern Mindanao 33 20 3 31 13 5
Region XI - Southern Mindanao 44 12 3 30 11 8
Region XII - Central Mindanao 52 18 3 15 12 6
ARMM 63 25 1 2 9 6

Source: Exit polls conducted by Social Weather Stations on May 12, 100% total (margin of error: 1.3%)[10]

For vice-president

Arroyo also carried most of the provinces including her home province of Pampanga. Other candidates also carried their home provinces such as Angara of Aurora, and Quezon being mother province, Orbos of Pangasinan, Tatad of Catanduanes and Sueno of South Cotabato.

Only Osmeña of Cebu failed to capture the votes of their home provinces.

CandidatePartyVotes%
Gloria Macapagal ArroyoLakas–NUCD–UMDP12,667,25249.56
Edgardo AngaraLaban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino5,652,06822.11
Oscar OrbosPartido para sa Demokratikong Reporma–Lapiang Manggagawa3,321,77913.00
Serge OsmeñaLiberal Party2,351,4629.20
Francisco TatadGrand Alliance for Democracy745,3892.92
Ismael SuenoPROMDI537,6772.10
Irene SantiagoAksyon Demokratiko240,2100.94
Camilo SabioPartido Bansang Marangal22,0100.09
Reynaldo PachecoKilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago21,4220.08
Total25,559,269100.00
Valid votes25,559,26987.28
Invalid/blank votes3,726,50612.72
Total votes29,285,775100.00
Registered voters/turnout33,873,66586.46
Popular vote
Arroyo
 
 49.56%
Angara
 
 22.11%
Orbos
 
 13.00%
Osmeña
 
 9.20%
Others
 
 6.13%

NAMFREL quick count

Take note that Reynaldo Pacheco had a higher number of votes in the NAMFREL quick count than the official Congressional canvass.

NAMFREL quick count result (79.25% of precincts)[9]
Candidate Party Results
Votes  % Diff*
Gloria Macapagal Arroyo Lakas 9,624,39748.85%−0.71%
Edgardo Angara LDP 4,380,99122.24%0.13
Oscar Orbos Reporma-LM 2,651,18413.46%0.46
Sergio Osmeña III Liberal 1,183,9989.21%0.01
Francisco Tatad PRP/Gabay Bayan 582,5482.96%0.05
Ismael Sueno PROMDI 409,9662.08%−0.02
Irene Santiago Aksyon 196,3861.00%0.07
Reynaldo PachecoKilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago23,1070.12%0.04
Camilo SabioPartido Bansang Marangal19,5550.10%0.01
Votes 19,702,132 100.00% —

*Difference from the NAMFREL quick count from the official Congressional canvass.

Voter demographics
1998 Presidential vote by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroup Arroyo Angara Orbos Osmeña Other  % of
total vote
Total vote 50 21 12 10 7 100
Region
NCR 32 21 33 12 2 9
CAR 60 19 17 3 1 5
Region I - Ilocos 53 15 30 1 1 6
Region II - Cagayan 62 26 10 2 0 5
Region III - Central Luzon 66 16 11 6 1 7
Region IV - Southern Tagalog 45 29 17 7 2 12
Region V - Bicol 48 14 4 5 29 5
Region VI - Western Visayas 46 28 4 15 7 9
Region VII - Central Visayas 45 17 2 25 11 7
Region VIII - Eastern Visayas 67 18 1 13 1 4
Region IX - Western Mindanao 59 18 5 15 3 6
Region X - Northern Mindanao 58 21 3 16 2 5
Region XI - Southern Mindanao 50 20 5 13 12 8
Region XII - Central Mindanao 56 21 3 9 11 6
ARMM 58 30 6 4 2 6

Source: Exit polls conducted by Social Weather Stations on May 12, 100% total (margin of error: 1.4%)[11]

See also

Notes

    References
    1. Maragay, Fel V. (August 25, 1992). "Would'ya believe: Erap's not running in '98". Manila Standard. Kamahalan Publishing Corp. p. 3. Retrieved October 16, 2021.
    2. Macaspac, Joem N. (July 6, 1997). "Letty launches presidential candidacy today". Manila Standard. Kamahalan Publishing Corp. p. 1. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
    3. Maragay, Fel V. (July 7, 1997). "Shahani declares bid for presidency". Manila Standard. Kamahalan Publishing Corp. p. 1. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
    4. Azarcon-dela Cruz, Pennie (March 26, 2017). "Leticia Ramos-Shahani: The accidental politician". Inquirer News. INQUIRER.net. Retrieved June 15, 2023. ...lost her bid for the governor's post in Pangasinan in 1998.
    5. "ERAP'S LEAD STRENGTHENS AS LIM, OSMEÃ'A, JDV TIE FOR 2ND". SWS.org.ph. 1998-04-22.
    6. "ERAP LEADS LIM AND JDV BY 28-14; GLORIA HITS 47". SWS.org.ph. 1998-03-23.
    7. "ERAP'S LEAD UNCHANGED; GLORIA'S LEAD WIDENS". SWS.org.ph. 1998-03-05.
    8. Dieter Nohlen; Florian Grotz; Christof Hartmann; Graham Hassall; Soliman M. Santos.
      Elections in Asia and the Pacific: A Data Handbook: Volume II: South East Asia, East Asia, and the South Pacific      .
    9. "Report on the Philippine General Elections 1998" (PDF). NAMFREL.com.ph. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 30, 2021. Retrieved March 17, 2011.
    10. "COMPARING SWS EXIT POLL RESULTS WITH NAMFREL COUNT BY REGION". Archived from the original on March 4, 2016.
    11. "VICE-PRESIDENTIAL VOTES FOR THE MAY 11, 1998 ELECTIONS: SWS Day-of-Election 'Exit Poll'". Archived from the original on September 24, 2015.
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