2023 Kebbi State gubernatorial election

The 2023 Kebbi State gubernatorial election will take place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Kebbi State, concurrent with elections to the Kebbi State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—will be held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.[3] Incumbent APC Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term.

2023 Kebbi State gubernatorial election
18 March 2023
Registered2,032,041
 
Nominee Nasir Idris Aminu Bande
Party APC PDP
Running mate Abubakar Umar Argungu Samaila Salihu Bui
Governor before election

Abubakar Atiku Bagudu
APC

 Elected Governor

Nasir Idris
APC

Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating former Army major general Aminu Bande on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated teachers' union leader Nasir Idris on 26 May.[4][5]

Electoral system

The Governor of Kebbi State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

Kebbi State is a diverse, northwestern state with a growing economy but is facing rising insecurity and desertification. Politically, the 2019 elections confirmed the state's status as one of the most staunchly APC states in the nation as both Buhari and Atiku Bagudu won the state by wide margins and every single legislative seat on the senatorial, House of Representatives, and House of Assembly levels were carried by APC nominees.

At the beginning of his term, Atiku Bagudu said his administration would focus on economic diversification, further improving immunization levels, and infrastructure.[6] In terms of his performance, Atiku Bagudu was commended for environmental protection and agricultural development but was criticized for new revelations to his previously-known looting of state funds during the Abacha administration involving his renewed attempts to retake some of the stolen funds that had been seized and his desperate attempts to keep hold of the loot still in his possession.[7][8][9][10]

Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, will take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022.[2] An informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Kebbi South Senatorial District to have the next governor as Kebbi South has never produced a governor. However, another interpretation of zoning based on the traditional emirates in the state would set up the Argungu, Yauri and Zuru emirates to produce the next governor as the largest Gwandu Emirate has held the office for much of the state's history.[11] However, no major party has yet formally zoned their primaries.

All Progressives Congress

Analysts view the APC gubernatorial primary as a likely battle between the preexisting major factions within the Kebbi State APC with one faction led by outgoing Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu and the other faction led by Kebbi Central Senator and former Governor Adamu Aliero. Aliero was reportedly backing the gubernatorial candidacy of Kebbi North Senator Yahaya Abubakar Abdullahi while conflicting reports stated that Atiku Bagudu was supporting Attorney-General Abubakar Malami or former Finance Commissioner Ibrahim Muhammad Augie; an added element of the party crisis is the supposed ambition of Atiku Bagudu to run against Aliero in the Kebbi Central senatorial primary.[12][11] Tensions between the factions reached a head in late 2021 when Aliero's faction broke away and elected separate leadership to Atiku Bagudu's faction setting up a dispute over which was the legitimate party organization.[13][14][15] As Atiku Bagudu is a serving governor, his faction was recognized by the national party in February 2022 but the internal rift has remained as questions of zoning and godfather support have continued.[11] Further controversy arose when Malami officially announced his candidacy, firstly that Malami refused to resign as Attorney-General in accordance with the Electoral Act and secondly when photos emerged of over two hundred luxury cars Malami gave to delegates as bribes.[16][17] However, when finally directed to resign by Buhari in May 2022, Malami instead dropped out of the gubernatorial race amid reports that he did not believe he could win the primary.[18][19]

On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[20] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[21] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[22][23][24][25]

After Malami withdrew, union leader Nasir Idris was drafted in by allies of Atiku Bagudu to run as the governor's anointed candidate instead.[26] On the primary date, the three candidates contested an indirect primary that ended with Idris emerging as the party gubernatorial nominee after results showed him winning just under 97% of the delegates' votes. In his acceptance speech, Idris thanked delegates and pledged to lead the state well while Abdullahi, who got zero votes, rejected the results as fabricated before defecting to the PDP a few weeks later.[5][27][28]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Nasir Idris (96.79%)
  Abubakar Gari Malam (3.21%)
APC primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Nasir Idris 1,055 96.79%
APC Abubakar Gari Malam 35 3.21%
APC Yahaya Abubakar Abdullahi 0 0.00%
Total votes 1,090 100.00%
Turnout 1,090 Unknown

People's Democratic Party
On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[35] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[36][37]

In the five candidate primary, former Army major general Aminu Bande won by a substantial margin of about 51% of the votes cast.[4] In his acceptance speech at the primary venue in Birnin Kebbi, Bande vowed to carry the party to victory and rehabilitate the state.

Nominated
  • Aminu Bande: former Army major general[38][4]
    • Running mate—Samaila Salihu Bui: House of Assembly member

Eliminated in primary
  • Ibrahim Abdullahi Manga: PDP Deputy National Publicity Secretary[39][4]
  • Buhari Bala: former Minister of State for Foreign Affairs[4]
  • Haruna Garba Argungu: energy manager[4]
  • Saidu Samaila Sambawa: former Minister of Sports and Social Development[4]

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Aminu Bande (68.96%)
  Ibrahim Abdullahi Manga (18.45%)
  Buhari Bala (6.30%)
  Other candidates (6.29%)
PDP primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Aminu Bande 471 68.96%
PDP Ibrahim Abdullahi Manga 126 18.45%
PDP Buhari Bala 43 6.30%
PDP Haruna Garba Argungu 22 3.22%
PDP Saidu Samaila Sambawa 21 3.07%
Total votes 683 100.00%
Turnout 683 Unknown

Minor parties

Campaign

In the wake of the primaries, mass defections riddled both major parties as aggrieved APC members led by Adamu Aliero and Yahaya Abubakar Abdullahi decamped to the PDP while the APC also wooed defectors as a campaign tactic. The Aliero vs. Bagudu dispute that dominated Kebbi APC politics in the years prior to the primaries and into the gubernatorial general election campaign was compounded by the fact that Aliero and Bagudu were running against each other for the Kebbi Central senatorial seat.[44] As the elections neared, campaigning intensified in December and January with Idris vowed to improve education and agriculture while Bande promised to combat banditry using his military experience.[45]

By February, attention largely switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Kebbi State voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won 50.1% of the vote to defeat Bola Tinubu (APC) at 44.3%. Although the close result was unsurprising, the close margin and PDP win led to increased attention on the competitiveness of the gubernatorial race. Additionally, Bagudu lost to Aliero in the senatorial race and internal APC strife continued while the PDP grew from its federal election successes and zoning dynamics.[46] The EiE-SBM forecast projected Bande to win while a Vanguard piece labeled the election as a "50-50" race.[47][48]

Projections
Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[lower-alpha 1][49] Lean Bande 17 March 2023
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 2][47]		 Bande 2 March 2023

Conduct

Electoral timetable

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[50] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[51]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[lower-alpha 3] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023[lower-alpha 4] – Final day of the official campaign period

General election
2023 Kebbi State gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
A
AA
ADP
APP
AAC
ADC
APM
APC
APGA
BP
LP
NNPP
NRM
PDP
PRP
SDP
YPP
ZLP
Total votes 100.00%
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Nasir Idris
APC		 Aminu Bande
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Kebbi Central Senatorial District[lower-alpha 5] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Kebbi North Senatorial District[lower-alpha 6] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Kebbi South Senatorial District[lower-alpha 7] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Nasir Idris
APC		 Aminu Bande
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Aleiro/Gwandu/Jega Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 8] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Arewa/Dandi Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 9] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Argungu/Augie Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 10] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Bagudo/Suru Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 11] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Bunza/Birnin Kebbi/Kalgo Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 12] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Fakai/Sakaba/Wasagu/Danko/Zuru Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 13] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Koko-Besse/Maiyama Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 14] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ngaski/Shanga/Yauri Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 15] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Nasir Idris
APC		 Aminu Bande
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Aleiro TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Arewa Dandi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Argungu TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Augie TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Bagudo TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Birnin Kebbi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Bunza TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Dandi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Fakai TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Gwandu TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Jega TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kalgo TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Koko/Besse TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Maiyama TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ngaski TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Sakaba TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Shanga TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Suru TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Wasagu/Danko TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Yauri TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Zuru TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %


See also

Notes
  1. AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  2. EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  3. The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[52]
  4. The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[53]
  5. Comprising the local government areas of Aliero, Birnin Kebbi, Bunza, Gwandu, Kalgo, Koko/Besse, and Maiyama.
  6. Comprising the local government areas of Arewa Dandi, Argungu, Augie, Bagudo, Dandi, Jega, and Suru.
  7. Comprising the local government areas of Fakai, Ngaski, Sakaba, Shanga, Wasagu/Danko, Yauri, and Zuru.
  8. Comprising the local government areas of Aleiro, Gwandu, and Jega.
  9. Comprising the local government area of Arewa Dandi.
  10. Comprising the local government areas of Argungu and Augie.
  11. Comprising the local government areas of Bagudo and Suru.
  12. Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Kebbi, Bunza, and Kalgo.
  13. Comprising the local government areas of Fakai, Sakaba, Wasagu/Danko, and Zuru.
  14. Comprising the local government areas of Koko/Besse and Maiyama.
  15. Comprising the local government areas of Ngaski, Shanga, and Yauri.

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