2023 Niger State gubernatorial election

The 2023 Niger State gubernatorial election will take place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Niger State, concurrent with elections to the Niger State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—will be held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.[3] Incumbent APC Governor Abubakar Sani Bello is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term.

2023 Niger State gubernatorial election
18 March 2023
Registered2,698,344
 
PDP
Nominee Mohammed Umar Bago Isah Liman Kantigi
Party APC PDP
Running mate Yakubu Garba Samuel Gomna
Governor before election

Abubakar Sani Bello
APC

 Elected Governor

Mohammed Umar Bago
APC

Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the All Progressives Congress nominating Mohammed Umar Bago—House of Representatives member for Chanchaga—on 26 May while the Peoples Democratic Party nominated former commissioner Isah Liman Kantigi on the same day after its primary was postponed by 24 hours.[4][5]

Electoral system

The governor of Niger State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

Niger State is a large, diverse state in the North Central with agricultural and energy potential but facing a debilitated health sector and intense challenges in security as the nationwide kidnapping epidemic, bandit conflict, and herder–farmer clashes have all heavily affected the state with added fears of ISWAP encroachment.[6][7]

Politically, the state's 2019 elections were a solidification of the control of the state APC. In federal elections, Buhari retained the state presidentially while the APC swept all three senate seats and ten House of Representatives seats. On the state level, the party also held the governorship and kept the majority in the House of Assembly.

Ahead of his second term, Bello pledged to focus on education, increasing agricultural production, affordable housing, and improving access to clean drinking water.[8] In terms of his performance, Bello was praised for expanding the energy sector but was criticized for failing to combat rising insecurity, poor road infrastructure, a failure to pay teacher salaries and the ensuing educator strike, having a political opponent imprisoned, and his role in the March 2022 APC leadership crisis.[9][10][11][12]

Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][13] An informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Niger South Senatorial District to produce the next governor as someone from Niger South has not held the governorship since 2007. While only the PDP has closed their primaries to non-Southern candidates, nearly all potential candidates are from the South and it appears as if both major parties are holding to the zoning agreement.[14]

All Progressives Congress
On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[15] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[16] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[17][18][19][20]

In the days before the primary, controversy arose over the alleged manipulation of the delegate list for the primary.[21] By the primary date, the exercise was peacefully held in Minna and resulted in a 15% margin of victory for Mohammed Umar Bago, a House of Representatives member. In his acceptance speech, Bago thanked delegates while noting that the primary was only the beginning of the campaign.[4] On 4 July, the state APC announced Yakubu Garba—the state NLC chairman—as Bago's running mate in a press release.[22]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Mohammed Umar Bago (52.07%)
  Mohammed Idris Malagi (37.22%)
  Sani Ndanusa (8.10%)
  Other candidates (2.61%)
APC primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Mohammed Umar Bago 540 52.07%
APC Mohammed Idris Malagi 386 37.22%
APC Sani Ndanusa 84 8.10%
APC Ahmed Muhammad Ketso 17 1.64%
APC Mohammed Rufai 4 0.39%
APC Idris Usman Makanta 3 0.29%
APC Aliyu Idris Rugga 1 0.10%
APC Mohammed Kpoutagi 1 0.10%
APC Muhammed Nda 1 0.10%
APC Yahaya Kuta 0 0.00%
Total votes 1,037 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 11 N/A
Turnout 1,048 76.50

People's Democratic Party

In June 2020, Niger PDP then-Caretaker Committee Chairman Garba Umaru announced that the party had zoned their gubernatorial nomination to Niger South Senatorial District as a part of an internal party deal to cede the deputy gubernatorial slot to Niger East Senatorial District while Niger South would hold the party chairmanship until handing over to Niger North.[28] Zoning the PDP nomination to Niger South was reaffirmed in February 2022 by now-state party chairman Tanko Beji and other state party leaders.[29] By April 2022, the state party leadership also intended to use the consensus method for the nomination with a meeting resulting in Isah Liman Kantigi's emergence as the intended nominee but the plan fell through when some rival candidates rejected the arrangement and bought forms anyway.[30][31]

On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[32] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[33][34]

On the primary date, four of the five candidates lead protests against the alleged manipulation of the delegate list in favour of Kantigi. The protests forced primary committee chairman Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo to postpone the primary until the next day.[35] On 26 May, the five candidates finally contested the indirect primary that ended with Kantigi emerging as the PDP nominee after results showed him winning over 80% of delegates' votes.[5][36] A few weeks later, Samuel Gomna was picked as the deputy gubernatorial nominee; it was noted that Gomna was a Christian making the ticket the first religiously diverse PDP ticket since 2007.[37] In November, a lawsuit from Mohammed Sani Idris Legbo Kutigi that challenged the primary results was dismissed.[38]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Isah Liman Kantigi (82.86%)
  Mohammed Sani Idris Legbo Kutigi (14.16%)
  Other candidates (2.98%)
PDP primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Isah Liman Kantigi 667 82.86%
PDP Mohammed Sani Idris Legbo Kutigi 114 14.16%
PDP Abdullahi Isah Jankara 21 2.61%
PDP Abdulrahman Hassan Gimba 3 0.37%
PDP Sidi Abdul 0 0.00%
Total votes 805 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 3 N/A
Turnout 808 Unknown

Minor parties

Campaign

After the primaries, the major party nominees—mostly Bago (APC)—spent months attempting to reconcile with aggrieved members of their own parties. Bago went on a reconciliatory tour around the state to meet party members; these APC reconciliation attempts occurred all while the PDP conversely tried to woo aggrieved APC members into the party. Analysts questioned the effectiveness of Bago's tour, especially amid other disputes within the state APC.[44] In early 2023, campaign analysis focused on the divides between urban-rural electorates with reports stating that Bago led in his native city of Minna while Kantigi led in Nupe-majority rural communities of the state's south.[45] But the campaign was derailed by controversy in mid-February, when a video surfaced showing Kantigi issuing death threats against voters who planned to take his bribes but not eventually vote for him.[46] Later in February, attention largely switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Niger State voted for Bola Tinubu (APC); Tinubu won 48.2% of the vote, beating the 36.6% of Atiku Abubakar (PDP) and the 10.3% of Peter Obi (LP). In the wake of the result, the EiE-SBM forecast projected Bago to win.[47]

Projections
Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[lower-alpha 1][48] Lean Bago 17 March 2023
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[lower-alpha 2][47]		 Bago 2 March 2023

Conduct

Electoral timetable

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[49] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[50]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[lower-alpha 3] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023[lower-alpha 4] – Final day of the official campaign period

Pre-election

Due to widespread insecurity in the state, civil society groups raised concern about the safe conduct of the election in heavily insecure areas.[53]

General election
2023 Niger State gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
A
AA
ADP
APP
AAC
ADC
APM
APC
APGA
BP
LP
NNPP
NRM
PDP
PRP
SDP
YPP
ZLP
Total votes 100.00%
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Mohammed Umar Bago
APC		 Isah Liman Kantigi
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Niger East Senatorial District[lower-alpha 5] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Niger North Senatorial District[lower-alpha 6] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Niger South Senatorial District[lower-alpha 7] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Mohammed Umar Bago
APC		 Isah Liman Kantigi
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Agaie/Lapai Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 8] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Agwara/Borgu Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 9] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Bida/Gbako/Katcha Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 10] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Bosso/Paikoro Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 11] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Chanchaga Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 12] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Gurara/Suleja/Tafa Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 13] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Kontagora/Wushishi/Mariga/Mashegu Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 14] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Lavun/Mokwa/Edati Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 15] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Magama/Rijau Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 16] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Shiroro/Rafi/Munya Federal Constituency[lower-alpha 17] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Mohammed Umar Bago
APC		 Isah Liman Kantigi
PDP		 Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Agaie TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Agwara TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Bida TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Borgu TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Bosso TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Chanchaga TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Edati TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Gbako TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Gurara TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Katcha TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kontagora TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Lapai TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Lavun TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Magama TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Mariga TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Mashegu TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Mokwa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Munya TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Paikoro TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Rafi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Rijau TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Shiroro TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Suleja TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Tafa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Wushishi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also

Notes
  1. AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  2. EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  3. The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[51]
  4. The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[52]
  5. Comprising the local government areas of Bosso, Chanchaga, Munya, Paikoro, Rafi, Shiroro, Suleja, Tafa, and Gurara.
  6. Comprising the local government areas of Agwara, Borgu, Kontagora, Magama, Mariga, Mashegu, Rijau, and Wushishi.
  7. Comprising the local government areas of Agaie, Bida, Edati, Gbako, Katcha, Lapai, Lavun, and Mokwa.
  8. Comprising the local government areas of Agaie and Lapai.
  9. Comprising the local government areas of Agwara and Borgu.
  10. Comprising the local government areas of Bida, Gbako, and Katcha.
  11. Comprising the local government areas of Bosso and Paikoro.
  12. Comprising the local government area of Chanchaga.
  13. Comprising the local government areas of Gurara, Suleja, and Tafa.
  14. Comprising the local government areas of Kontagora, Mashegu, Mariga, and Wushishi.
  15. Comprising the local government areas of Edati, Lavun, and Mokwa.
  16. Comprising the local government areas of Magama and Rijau.
  17. Comprising the local government areas of Munya, Rafi, and Shiroro.

References
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