2023 Katsina State gubernatorial election

The Governor of Katsina State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Katsina State is a highly populated, northwestern state mainly inhabited by ethnic Hausas and Fulanis. It has a growing economy but is facing rising insecurity, desertification, and low education rates.

Politically, the 2019 elections confirmed the state's status as one of the most staunchly APC states in the nation as both Buhari and Bello Masari won the state by wide margins and every single legislative seat on the senatorial, House of Representatives, and House of Assembly levels were carried by APC nominees. At the beginning of his term, Bello Masari said his administration would focus on security, agriculture, water resource management, and education.[6] In terms of his performance, Bello Masari was praised for increasing his government's diversity but was heavily criticized for his response to rising insecurity.[7][8][9][10][11]

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][12] According to some activists from the state's northern senatorial district, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the north to produce the next governor as since the 1999 return of democracy, all Katsina governors have come from either the Central or South senatorial districts.[13] On the other hand, groups from Katsina South Senatorial District are pushing for the office to be retained by their district by claiming that Katsina Central Senatorial District produced the governor for four terms and thus Katsina South should as well.[14]

Post-primary analysis focused on the respective strengths of Radda and Lado but also noted the divides within the state APC that Radda had to contend with.[49] As the general election campaign began in July and August, reporting also pointed out other potential factors like the strength of the APC's incumbency, APC members aggrieved by contentious party primaries, and Lado's southern origin along with the more prominent minor party nominees—Muhammad Nura Khalil (NNPP), Imrana Jino (PRP), and Ibrahim Zakkari (SDP).[50][51][52] One of these factors—fallout from the APC primary, dominated much of the pre-campaign period as politicians like Khalil and Lado met with APC primary runner-up Mustapha Muhammad Inuwa and attempted to woo him into their parties; in response, the APC sent its vice presidential nominee Kashim Shettima and others to convince Inuwa to support Radda.[53][54] However, the Shettima visit failed to prevent Inuwa's defection as he joined the PDP in mid-October with APC sources noting that the defection was likely to hurt the party in the general election.[55][56] On the other hand, Lado also faced internal issues as a split emerged in the state PDP in early November as his camp attempted to remove state party chair Yusuf Salisu Majigiri, who's backed by former Governor Ibrahim Shema. Lado and his allies accused Salisu Majigiri of supporting the APC and journalists noted rumors that Salisu Majigiri planned to suspend Lado from the party.[57] Although Lado was suspended, Salisu Majigiri claimed that he had already stepped down as party chairman due to his candidacy for the House of Representatives; in an attempt to avoid further rifts, acting party chairman Salisu Lawal Uli ended Lado's suspension but it was too late as Lado's faction claimed Magaji Lawal was the rightful party chairman.[58][59][60] To worsen the situation for the PDP, Shema reportedly met with Radda in a move that fueled rumors that his bloc may tacitly support the APC nominee.[61]

The PDP party crisis continued into the new year, as analysts labeled the scandals as actively hurtful to Lado's campaign by January 2023.[62] In a Daily Trust article from mid-January, the crisis was labeled as the Lado's biggest issue while the largest problem of the Dikko Radda campaign was the unpopularity of incumbent APC administrations.[63] The month also hosted two debates, the first one conducted by Media Trust Group on 14 January and attended by Dikko Radda, Khalil, Jino, Lado, and Zakari;[64] while the second debate was organized by BBC Hausa on 22 January and only Dikko Radda, Khalil, Jino, and Lado were invited to participate. Held at the Local Government Service Commission in the city of Katsina, the BBC debate reviewed topics ranging from education to security.[65] After the debates, the APC continued its attempts to woo Shema into the party, with the state government even withdrawing its corruption case against Shema in a move criticized as politically motivated.[66]

The next month, attention largely switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Katsina State voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won 46.2% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu (APC) at 45.6% and Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) at 6.6%. The result—considered a surprise as Katsina is Buhari's hame state, led to increased attention on the gubernatorial race. Campaign analysis in the wake of the presidential election from Vanguard noted that the APC had retained most downballot offices and appeared to be in a strong position.[67] On the other hand, the EiE-SBM forecast projected Lado to win due to the presidential election results and Masari's unpopularity.[68]

• 2023 Nigerian elections
• 2023 Nigerian gubernatorial elections