Demographics of Kazakhstan

The demographics of Kazakhstan enumerate the demographic features of the population of Kazakhstan, including population growth, population density, ethnicity, education level, health, economic status, religious affiliations, and other aspects of the population. Some use the word Kazakh to refer to the Kazakh ethnic group and language (autochthonous to Kazakhstan as well as parts of China and Mongolia) and Kazakhstani to refer to Kazakhstan and its citizens regardless of ethnicity,[4][5] but it is common to use Kazakh in both senses.[6][7][8] According to the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the population of Kazakhstan in 2050 could reach about 27.5 million.[9]

"Kazakhstani" redirects here. For other uses, see Kazakh (disambiguation).
Demographics of Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan population pyramid as of January 1, 2023
Population19,879,003 (1 June, 2023)[1]
Density7.29531/km2
Growth rate13.5/1,000 population (2010 est.)
Birth rate22.4 births/1,000 population (2010 est.)
Death rate8.9 deaths/1,000 population (2010 est.)
Life expectancy72.25 years
 • male67.12 years
 • female77.06 years (2021 est.)
Fertility rate3.3 children born/woman (2021 est.)[2]
Infant mortality rate18.4 deaths/1,000 live births
Age structure
0–14 years29.5% (male 3,001,983/female 2,833,471)
15–64 years62.0% (male 6,028,354/female 6,224,431)
65 and over8.5% (male 617,364/female 1,061,204) (2023 Est.)[3]
Sex ratio
Total0.95
At birth1.06 male(s)/female
Under 151.05 male(s)/female
15–64 years0.95 male(s)/female
65 and over0.54 male(s)/female
Nationality
NationalityKazakhstani(s) or Kazakh(s)
Major ethnicKazakh
Minor ethnicRussian, Uzbek, Ukrainian, Uyghur, Tatar, German
Language
OfficialKazakh
SpokenKazakh, Russian and others

Official estimates put the population of Kazakhstan at 18,137,300 as of December 2017, of which 44% is rural and 56% urban population.[10] The 2009 population estimate is 6.8% higher than the population reported in the last census from January 1999 (slightly less than 15 million). These estimates have been confirmed by the 2009 population census, and this means that the decline in population that began after 1989 has been arrested and reversed.

In a report released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) in September 2021, the level of urbanization in Kazakhstan is estimated to reach 69.1% by 2050.[11]

The proportion of men makes up 48.3%, the proportion of women 51.7%. The proportion of Kazakhs makes up 63.6%, Russians 23.7%, Uzbeks 2.9%, Ukrainians 2.1%, Uygur 1.4%, Tatars 1.3%, Germans 1.1%, others 3.9%. Note that a large percentage of the population are of mixed ethnicity.

The first census in Kazakhstan was conducted under Russian Imperial rule in 1897, which estimated population at round 4 million people. Following censuses showed a growth until 1939, where numbers showed a decrease to 6,081 thousand relative to the previous census done 13 years earlier, due to famines of 1922 and 1933.

Main articles: Kazakh famine of 1919–1922 and Kazakh famine of 1932–33

But since 1939 population has steadily increased to 16.5 million in 1989, according to corresponding year census. Official estimates indicate that the population continued to increase after 1989, peaking out at 17 million in 1993 and then declining to 15 million in the 1999 census. The downward trend continued through 2002, when the estimated population bottomed out at 14.9 million, and then resumed its growth.[12] Significant numbers of Russians returned to Russia. Kazakhstan underwent significant urbanization during the first 50 years of the Soviet era, as the share of the rural population declined from more than 90% in the 1920s to less than 50% since the 1970s.[13] The fertility rate declined to amongst the lower rates in the world in 1999 and increased to again amongst the higher rates in the world in 2021.

Kazakhstanis on a Lake Jasybay beach, Pavlodar Region

Population of Kazakhstan 1897–2018
Year (January) Population (thousands) Rural, % Urban, % Source
1897 4,000 n/a n/a census
1926 6,198 n/a n/a census
1939 6,081 72 28 census
1959 9,295 56 44 census
1970 13,001 50 50 census
1979 14,685 46 54 census
1989 16,537 43 57 census
1999 14,953 43 57 census
2009 15,982 46 54 census
2023 20,137 39 61 estimate
Data sources: Population 1897 from Russian Empire Census. Population 1926 from First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union. Population 1939–1999 from demoscope.ru,[12] 2002–2008 from Kazakhstan Statistical Agency web site.[14] Rural/urban shares 1939–1993 from statistical yearbooks, print editions,[13] 2002–2008 from Kazakhstan Statistical Agency web site.[14] 2009–2014 from Kazakhstan Statistical Agency web site.[15]

As of 2003, there were discrepancies between Western sources regarding the population of Kazakhstan. United States government sources, including the CIA World Fact Book and the US Census Bureau International Data Base, listed the population as 15,340,533,[16] while the World Bank gave a 2002 estimate of 14,858,948.[17] This discrepancy was presumably due to difficulties in measurement caused by the large migratory population in Kazakhstan, emigration, and low population density – only about 5.5 persons per km2 in an area the size of Western Europe.

Vital statistics

Births and deaths

[18][19][20] [21]

Average population Live births1 Deaths1 Natural change1 Crude birth rate (per 1000) Crude death rate (per 1000) Natural change (per 1000) Fertility rates
1950 6,703,000 254,169 79,005 175,164 37.9 11.8 26.1
1951 6,946,000 272,354 80,553 191,801 39.2 11.6 27.6
1952 7,133,000 265,235 85,241 179,994 37.2 12.0 25.2
1953 7,271,000 262,758 73,930 188,828 36.1 10.2 26.0
1954 7,528,000 278,420 76,092 202,328 37.0 10.1 26.9
1955 7,992,000 299,854 73,283 226,571 37.5 9.2 28.3
1956 8,426,000 305,430 64,807 240,623 36.3 7.7 28.6
1957 8,722,000 326,766 68,050 258,716 37.5 7.8 29.7
1958 9,077,000 336,020 62,680 273,340 37.0 6.9 30.1
1959 9,516,000 349,794 69,602 280,192 36.8 7.3 29.4
1960 9,996,000 372,595 65,667 306,928 37.2 6.6 30.7
1961 10,480,000 377,789 68,610 309,179 36.1 6.5 29.5
1962 10,958,000 369,002 70,952 298,050 33.7 6.5 27.2
1963 11,321,000 346,084 67,218 278,866 30.6 5.9 24.6
1964 11,610,000 324,412 66,197 258,215 27.9 5.7 22.2
1965 11,909,000 314,533 69,803 244,730 26.4 5.9 20.6
1966 12,185,000 307,905 69,402 238,503 25.3 5.7 19.6
1967 12,456,000 301,715 71,824 229,891 24.2 5.8 18.5
1968 12,694,000 296,882 73,496 223,386 23.4 5.8 17.6
1969 12,901,000 297,129 78,660 218,469 23.0 6.1 16.9
1970 13,106,000 301,451 77,619 223,832 23.0 5.9 17.1
1971 13,321,000 317,423 79,881 237,542 23.8 6.0 17.8
1972 13,534,000 318,551 85,122 233,429 23.5 6.3 17.2
1973 13,742,000 321,075 90,282 230,793 23.4 6.6 16.8
1974 13,955,000 338,291 93,582 244,709 24.2 6.7 17.5
1975 14,136,000 343,668 101,865 241,803 24.3 7.2 17.1
1976 14,279,000 350,362 103,892 246,470 24.5 7.3 17.3
1977 14,425,000 349,379 105,376 244,003 24.2 7.3 16.9
1978 14,589,000 355,337 107,293 248,044 24.4 7.4 17.0
1979 14,743,000 354,320 113,687 240,633 24.0 7.7 16.3
1980 14,884,000 356,013 119,078 236,935 23.9 8.0 15.9
1981 15,033,000 367,950 120,974 246,976 24.5 8.0 16.4
1982 15,185,000 373,416 120,165 253,251 24.6 7.9 16.7
1983 15,334,000 378,577 123,807 254,770 24.7 8.1 16.6
1984 15,481,000 399,403 129,796 269,607 25.8 8.4 17.4 3.04
1985 15,623,000 396,929 126,786 270,143 25.4 8.1 17.3 3.02
1986 15,776,000 410,846 119,149 291,697 26.0 7.6 18.5 3.13
1987 15,948,000 417,139 122,835 294,304 26.2 7.7 18.5 3.19
1988 16,188,000 407,116 126,898 280,218 25.3 7.9 17.4 3.13
1989 16,243,000 382,269 126,378 255,891 23.5 7.8 15.8 2.81
1990 16,328,000 362,081 128,576 233,505 22.2 7.9 14.3 2.72
1991 16,405,000 353,174 134,324 218,850 21.5 8.2 13.3 2.67
1992 16,439,000 337,612 137,518 200,094 20.5 8.4 12.2 2.62
1993 16,381,000 315,482 156,070 159,412 19.3 9.5 9.7 2.54
1994 16,146,000 305,624 160,339 145,285 18.9 9.9 9.0 2.43
1995 15,816,000 276,125 168,656 107,469 17.5 10.7 6.8 2.21
1996 15,578,000 253,175 166,028 87,147 16.3 10.7 5.6 2.02
1997 15,334,000 232,356 160,138 72,218 15.2 10.4 4.7 1.93
1998 15,072,000 222,380 154,314 68,066 14.8 10.2 4.5 1.81
1999 14,939,000 217,578 147,416 70,162 14.6 9.9 4.7 1.80
2000 14,915,000 222,054 149,778 72,276 14.9 10.0 4.8 1.88
2001 14,910,000 221,487 147,876 73,611 14.9 9.9 4.9 1.84
2002 14,931,000 227,171 149,381 77,790 15.2 10.0 5.2 1.88
2003 15,002,000 247,946 155,277 92,669 16.5 10.4 6.2 2.03
2004 15,126,000 273,028 152,250 120,778 18.0 10.1 8.0 2.21
2005 15,281,000 278,977 157,121 121,856 18.3 10.3 8.0 2.22
2006 15,463,000 301,756 157,210 144,546 19.5 10.2 9.3 2.36
2007 15,659,000 321,963 158,297 163,666 20.6 10.1 10.5 2.47
2008 15,870,000 356,575 152,706 203,869 22.5 9.6 12.8 2.68
2009 16,093,000 356,378 143,238 213,140 22.1 8.9 13.2 2.55
2010 16,322,000 367,942 146,370 221,572 22.5 8.9 13.6 2.59
2011 16,557,000 372,801 144,944 227,857 22.5 8.7 13.8 2.59
2012 16,791,000 381,005 142,880 238,125 22.7 8.5 14.2 2.62
2013 17,035,000 393,421 137,630 255,791 22.7 8.0 14.7 2.64
2014 17,289,000 401,066 132,236 268,830 23.1 7.6 15.5 2.73
2015 17,557,000 398,561 131,867 266,694 22.7 7.5 15.2 2.74
2016 17,818,000 400,940 132,373 277,567 22.5 7.4 15.6 2.77
2017 18,014,000 390,520 130,033 260,487 21.7 7.2 14.5 2.75
2018 18,137,000 397,947 130,515 267,432 21.8 7.1 14.7 2.84
2019 18,396,000 403,064 133,489 269,575 21.8 7.2 14.6 2.90
2020 18,632,000 425,625 162,613 263,012 22.4 8.6 13.8 3.13
2021 18,880,000 450,652 183,357 267,295 23.4 9.5 13.9 3.32
2022 19,765,004 403,500 134,709 268,791 20.3 6.8 13.5 3.05

1 Births and deaths until 1979 are estimates.

Current vital statistics

[22] [23]

Period Live births Deaths Natural increase
January — August 2022 263,780 91,419 +172,361
January — August 2023 258,011 85,989 +172,022
Difference Decrease -5,769 (-2.19%) Positive decrease -5,430 (-5.94%) Decrease -339

Structure of the population

Population Estimates by Sex and Age Group (01.VII.2020) (Data refer to resident population.):[24]

Age Group Male Female Total %
Total 9 097 267 9 658 399 18 755 666 100
0–4 1 022 237 958 277 1 980 514 10.56
5–9 965 866 913 058 1 878 924 10.02
10–14 816 101 772 157 1 588 257 8.47
15–19 615 837 585 452 1 201 288 6.40
20–24 582 579 559 084 1 141 663 6.09
25–29 730 413 717 630 1 448 042 7.72
30–34 792 268 815 199 1 607 467 8.57
35–39 667 026 685 087 1 352 112 7.21
40–44 577 247 609 053 1 186 299 6.33
45–49 522 372 572 306 1 094 678 5.84
50–54 469 831 528 745 998 576 5.32
55–59 457 142 543 339 1 000 481 5.22
60–64 356 326 465 488 821 814 4.38
65–69 234 577 352 991 587 568 3.13
70–74 138 407 241 194 379 601 2.02
75–79 66 167 135 243 201 410 1.07
80–84 58 715 141 600 200 314 1.07
85–89 15 891 43 412 59 303 0.32
90–94 5 702 15 593 21 295 0.11
95–99 1 773 2 862 4 635 0.02
100+ 795 635 1 430 0.01
Age group Male Female Total Percent
0–14 2 804 204 2 643 492 5 447 696 29.05
15–64 5 771 036 6 081 377 11 852 413 63.19
65+ 522 027 933 530 1 455 557 7.76

Structure of the population (01.01.2021) (Estimates):[25]

Age Group Male Female Total %
Total 9 160 399 9 719 153 18 879 552 100
0–15 2 980 297 2 809 236 5 789 533 30.7
16–62(59) 5 524 137 5 485 235 11 009 372 58.3
63(60)+ 655 965 1 424 682 2 080 647 11.0

The age group under 15 is considered below the working age, while the age group over 63(60) is above the working age (63 years for men, 60 for women).

Total fertility rate
Total Fertility Rate of Kazakhstan by region (2021)

Total fertility rate by regions of Kazakhstan: Mangystau – 3.80, South Kazakhstan – 3.71, Kyzylorda – 3.42, Atyrau – 3.29, Jambyl – 3.20, Aqtobe – 2.70, Almaty (province) – 2.65, Almaty (city) – 2.65, City of Astana – 2.44, West Kazakhstan – 2.29, Aqmola – 2.19, East Kazakhstan – 2.07, Qaragandy – 2.04, Pavlodar – 1.98, North Kazakhstan – 1.72, Qostanay – 1.70, Republic of Kazakhstan – 2.65. Thus it can be seen that fertility rate is higher in more traditionalist and religious south and west, and lower in the north and east, where the percentage of Slavic and German population is still relatively high.[26][27][28]

According to the Kazakhstan Demographic and Health Survey in 1999, the TFR for Kazakhs was 2.5 and that for Russians was 1.38. TFR in 1989 for Kazakhs & Russians were 3.58 and 2.24 respectively.[29]

Total fertility rate per woman by ethnicity1989199519992000200120022003200420052006
Kazakh women3.583.112.502.122.112.142.302.522.542.73
Russian women2.241.691.381.181.171.211.301.361.351.38
Ukrainian women1.601.591.601.711.761.731.80
Uzbek women2.902.922.883.103.393.323.43

[30]

Life expectancy at birth
Life expectancy in Kazakhstan since 1868
Life expectancy in Kazakhstan since 1960 by gender
Period Life expectancy in
Years		 Period Life expectancy in
Years
1950–1955 55.1 1985–1990 67.5
1955–1960 57.3 1990–1995 65.5
1960–1965 59.5 1995–2000 63.0
1965–1970 61.7 2000–2005 64.6
1970–1975 63.3 2005–2010 66.0
1975–1980 64.3 2010–2015 69.1
1980–1985 65.9

Source: UN World Population Prospects[31]

Ethnic groups
Kazakhstan demographics 1897–1970. Major ethnic groups. Famines marked in dark.
Main article: Ethnic demography of Kazakhstan
Ethnic groups in Kazakhstan (2023)[32]
Ethnic groups
Kazakh
 
 70.7%
Russian
 
 15.2%
Uzbek
 
 3.3%
Ukrainian
 
 1.9%
Uyghur
 
 1.5%
German
 
 1.1%
Tatar
 
 1.1%
Other
 
 5.2%

History of ethnic composition

Kazakhstan's dominant ethnic group, the Kazakhs, traces its origins to the 15th century, when after the disintegration of Golden Horde, numbers of Turkic and Turco-Mongol tribes united to establish the Kazakh Khanate. With a cohesive culture and national identity, they constituted an absolute majority on the land until colonization by the Russian empire.
Russian advances into the territory of Kazakhstan began in the late 18th century, when the Kazakhs nominally accepted Russian rule in exchange for protection against repeated attacks by the western Mongolian Kalmyks. In the 1890s, Russian peasants began to settle on the fertile lands of northern Kazakhstan, causing many Kazakhs to move eastwards into Chinese territory in search of new grazing grounds. The 1906 completion of the Trans-Aral Railway between Orenburg and Tashkent further facilitated Russian colonization.[33][34]

The first collective farms were formed in Kazakhstan in 1921, populated primarily by Russians and Soviet deportees. In 1930, as part of the first Five Year Plan, the Kazakh Central Committee decreed the sedentarization of nomads and their incorporation into collectivized farms. This movement resulted in devastating famines, claiming the lives of an estimated 40% of ethnic Kazakhs (1.5 million), between 1930 and 1933.[35] Hundreds of thousands also fled to China, Iran and Afghanistan. The famine made Kazakhs a minority of the population of Kazakhstan, and only after the republic gained independence in 1991 did Kazakhs have a slim demographic majority within Kazakhstan.[33]

Demographics did shift in the 1950s and 1960s, when, as part of Nikita Khrushchev's Virgin Lands Campaign, hundreds of thousands of Soviet citizens relocated to the Kazakh steppes in order to farm. As recognized in the 1959 census, the Kazaks became the second-largest ethnic group in Kazakhstan for the first time in recorded history, comprising just 30% of the total population of Kazakhstan. Russians numbered 42.7%.[36]

Since the Soviet Union's collapse, the numbers of members of European ethnic groups has been falling and Asian groups have been continuously rising. According to 2023 estimates, the ethnic composition of Kazakhstan was approximately: 70.7% Kazakh, 15.2% Russian, 3.3% Uzbek, 1.9% Ukrainian, 1.5% Uyghur, 1.1% Tatar, 1.1% German, and <1% Korean, Turkish, Azerbaijani, Belarusian, Dungan, Kurdish, Tajik, Polish, Kyrgyz, Chechen.[37]

Population of Kazakhstan according to ethnic group 1897–1999
Ethnic
group		 census 18971 census 19262 census 19393 census 19594 census 19705 census 19796 census 19897 census 19998
Number  % Number  % Number  % Number  % Number  % Number  % Number  % Number  %
Kazakhs 3,392,751 82.9 3,627,612 58.5 2,327,625 37.8 2,794,966 30.0 4,161,164 32.4 5,289,349 36.0 6,534,616 39.7 8,011,452 53.5
Russians 454,402 11.1 1,275,055 20.6 2,458,687 40.0 3,974,229 42.7 5,499,826 42.8 5,991,205 40.8 6,227,549 37.8 4,480,675 29.9
Uzbeks 29,564 1.3 129,407 2.1 120,655 2.0 136,570 1.5 207,514 1.6 263,295 1.8 332,017 2.0
Ukrainians 860,201 13.9 658,319 10.7 762,131 8.2 930,158 7.2 897,964 6.1 896,240 5.4
Uygurs 11,631 0.2 35,409 0.6 59,840 0.6 120,784 0.9 147,943 1.0 185,301 1.1
Tatars 55,984 1.1 79,758 1.3 108,127 1.8 191,802 2.1 281,849 2.2 312,626 2.1 327,982 2.0
Germans 51,094 0.8 92,571 1.5 659,800 7.1 839,649 6.5 900,207 6.1 957,518 5.8
Koreans 42 0.0 96,453 1.6 74,019 0.8 78,078 0.6 91,984 0.6 103,315 0.6
Turks 46 0.0 523 0.0 9,916 0.1 18,397 0.1 25,820 0.2 49,567 0.3
Azerbaijanis 20 0.0 12,996 0.2 38,362 0.4 56,166 0.4 73,345 0.5 90,083 0.5
Belarusians 25,584 0.4 31,614 0.5 107,463 1.2 197,592 1.5 181,491 1.2 182,601 1.1
Poles 3,742 0.1 54,809 0.9 53,102 0.6 61,355 0.5 61,136 0.4 59,956 0.4
Chechens 3 0.0 2,639 0.0 130,232 1.4 34,492 0.3 38,256 0.3 49,507 0.3
Dungans 8,455 0.1 7,415 0.1 9,980 0.1 17,283 0.1 22,491 0.2 30,165 0.2
Tajiks 7,599 0.1 11,229 0.2 8,075 0.1 7,166 0.1 19,293 0.1 25,514 0.2
Kurds 2,387 0.0 6,109 0.1 12,299 0.1 17,692 0.1 25,425 0.2
Kyrgyz 10,200 0.2 5,033 0.1 6,810 0.1 9,474 0.1 9,352 0.1 14,112 0.1
Others 108,016 1.7 124,611 2.0 286,441 3.1 315,347 2.5 340,834 2.3 372,996 2.3
Total 6,198,465 6,151,102 9,309,847 12,848,573 14,684,283 16,464,464 14,981,281
1 Excluding the Kara-Kalpak AO; source:[38] 2 Source:.[39] 3 Source:.[40] 4 Source:.[41] 5 Source:.[42] 6 Source:.[43] 7 Source:[44]
Population of Kazakhstan according to ethnic group 2009–2023
Ethnic
group		 census 20098 estimate 20149 estimate 202010 census 202111 estimate 202312
Number  % Number  % Number  % Number  % Number  %
Kazakhs 10,096,763 63.1 11,244,547 65.5 12,764,821 68.5 13,497,891 70.4 13,965,957 70.7
Russians 3,793,764 23.7 3,685,009 21.5 3,512,925 18.9 2,981,946 15.5 3,000,611 15.2
Uzbeks 456,997 2.9 521,252 3.0 605,137 3.3 614,047 3.2 643,363 3.3
Ukrainians 333,031 2.1 301,346 1.8 263,962 1.4 387,327 2.0 380,226 1.9
Uygurs 224,713 1.4 246,777 1.4 274,509 1.5 290,337 1.5 297,138 1.5
Germans 178,409 1.1 181,928 1.1 176,107 0.9 226,092 1.2 225,345 1.1
Tatars 204,229 1.3 203,108 1.2 200,545 1.1 197,489 1.0 219,153 1.1
Azerbaijanis 85,292 0.5 98,646 0.6 112,547 0.6 145,615 0.8 150,440 0.8
Koreans 100,385 0.6 105,400 0.6 108,551 0.6 107,569 0.6 119,822 0.6
Turks 97,015 0.6 104,792 0.6 113,421 0.6 85,478 0.5 88,505 0.4
Dungans 51,944 0.3 62,029 0.4 74,409 0.4 78,817 0.4 81,738 0.4
Belarusians 66,476 0.4 60,295 0.4 53,440 0.3 76,484 0.4 75,637 0.4
Tajiks 36,277 0.2 42,143 0.3 50,121 0.3 49,827 0.3 53,480 0.3
Kurds 38,325 0.2 42,312 0.3 47,153 0.3 47,880 0.3 49,355 0.2
Poles 34,057 0.2 32,661 0.2 29,728 0.2 35,319 0.2 34,914 0.2
Kyrgyz 23,274 0.2 29,803 0.2 34,184 0.2 36,989 0.2
Chechens 31,431 0.2 32,252 0.2 33,507 0.2 33,557 0.2 34,330 0.2
Others 157,215 1.0 210,896 1.1 285,275 1.5 309,804 1.6
Total 16,009,597 17,160,774 18,631,779 19,186,015 19,766,807
8 Source: 9 Source:[45] 10 Source:[46] 11 Source:[47] 12 Source:[48]

Religion
Main article: Religion in Kazakhstan
Religion in Kazakhstan, 2021[49][50]
Islam
 
 69.3%
Christianity
 
 17.2%
No Response
 
 11.01%
Atheism
 
 2.25%
Other religions
 
 0.2%

See also

References
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Bibliography
  • Rasuly-Paleczek, Gabriele; Katschnig, Julia (2005), Central Asia on Display: Proceedings of the VIIth Conference of the European Society for Central Asian Studies, LIT Verlag Münster, ISBN 978-3-8258-8309-6.

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