Statistics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

Weekly confirmed COVID-19 deaths

The CDC publishes official numbers of COVID-19 cases in the United States. The CDC estimates that, between February 2020 and September 2021, only 1 in 1.3 COVID-19 deaths were attributed to COVID-19.[1] The true COVID-19 death toll in the United States would therefore be higher than official reports, as modeled by a paper published in The Lancet Regional Health – Americas.[2] One way to estimate COVID-19 deaths that includes unconfirmed cases is to use the excess mortality, which is the overall number of deaths that exceed what would normally be expected.[3] From March 1, 2020 through the end of 2020, there were 522,368 excess deaths in the United States, or 22.9% more deaths than would have been expected in that time period.[4]

In February 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic, a shortage of tests made it impossible to confirm all possible COVID-19 cases[5] and resulting deaths, so the early numbers were likely undercounts.[6][7][8][9]

The following numbers are based on CDC data, which is incomplete.

Measuring case and mortality rates

Deceased persons in a 53-foot "mobile morgue" outside a hospital in Hackensack, New Jersey on April 27, 2020
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COVID-19 pandemic in the United States by state and territory
Location[lower-roman 1] Cases[lower-roman 2] Deaths Recoveries[lower-roman 3] Hospital[lower-roman 4] Ref.
56 / 56 78,060,262 926,497 — —
Alabama 1,270,020 17,787 275,245 45,250 [10]
Alaska 227,111 1,108 7,165 1,260 [11]
American Samoa 3 0 — — [12]
Arizona 1,957,085 27,189 — 57,072 [13]
Arkansas 810,520 10,190 306,382 14,617 [14]
California 8,843,229 82,382 — — [15]
Colorado 1,297,328 11,659 — 23,293 [16]
Connecticut 717,520 10,318 — 12,257 [17][18]
Delaware 254,083 2,654 18,371 — [19]
District of Columbia 133,459 1,311 28,532 — [20]
Florida[lower-roman 5] 5,769,916 68,572 — 78,472 [21]
Georgia 2,446,525 34,464 — 55,167 [22]
Guam 41,780 315 7,377 — [23]
Hawaii 226,992 1,262 11,385 2,196 [24]
Idaho 409,129 4,634 92,573 7,007 [25][26]
Illinois 3,007,987 36,195 — — [27]
Indiana 1,671,299 22,377 429,382 42,557 [28][29]
Iowa 743,773 8,948 286,309 — [30]
Kansas 760,598 7,890 — 9,103 [31]
Kentucky 1,249,266 13,482 47,067 18,768 [32][33]
Louisiana 1,154,448 16,304 396,834 — [34]
Maine 206,005 1,883 12,772 1,511 [35]
Maryland 995,328 13,981 — 34,577 [36]
Massachusetts 1,656,412 23,021 477,796 19,176 [37][38]
Michigan 2,337,406 33,870 529,080 — [39]
Minnesota 1,400,624 12,063 467,147 25,528 [40]
Mississippi 783,751 11,772 273,437 9,012 [41]
Missouri 1,385,030 18,332 — — [42]
Montana 259,701 3,091 95,772 4,554 [43]
Nebraska 452,155 3,871 142,336 6,048 [44]
Nevada 676,364 9,446 — — [45]
New Hampshire 291,540 2,326 70,040 1,095 [46]
New Jersey 2,150,351 32,544 — 63,190 [47]
New Mexico 505,359 6,729 135,608 12,989 [48]
New York 4,879,871 66,189 143,659 89,995 [49][50]
North Carolina 2,549,339 21,968 795,521 — [51][52]
North Dakota 236,267 2,169 97,286 3,859 [53]
Northern Mariana Islands 7,927 25 29 4 [54]
Ohio 2,638,202 35,372 894,113 49,651 [55]
Oklahoma 1,012,168 12,767 401,945 23,700 [56]
Oregon 682,566 6,416 — 8,457 [57]
Pennsylvania 2,731,855 42,533 816,884 — [58]
Puerto Rico 470,292 4,060 — — [59]
Rhode Island 353,377 3,394 — 8,835 [60]
South Carolina 1,445,334 16,409 — — [61]
South Dakota 233,692 2,758 107,745 6,548 [62]
Tennessee 1,983,621 23,868 738,731 18,311 [63]
Texas 6,482,436 81,557 4,260,877[lower-roman 6] — [64]
US Virgin Islands 15,246 108 2,483 — [65]
Utah 916,191 4,336 346,157 14,520 [66]
Vermont 101,995 546 34,184 — [67]
Virginia 1,619,853 17,947 — 41,373 [68][69]
Washington 1,410,596 11,316 — 19,110 [70]
West Virginia 479,214 6,104 119,337 — [71]
Wisconsin 1,561,035 12,991 545,562 25,838 [72]
Wyoming 153,663 1,689 52,688 1,373 [73]
Updated: February 17, 2022 · History of cases: United States
  1. ↑ Nationality and location of original infection may vary.
  2. ↑ Reported confirmed and probable cases. Actual case numbers are probably higher.
  3. ↑ "–" denotes that no data or only partial data currently available for that state, not that the value is zero.
  4. ↑ Cumulative hospitalizations from positive cases reported from the state or the primary source. If a state only reports total cases from suspect COVID-19 cases, then cumulative hospitalizations from suspect cases are used. Data may be partial.
  5. ↑ Case and death figures in this chart for Florida include residents and non-residents.
  6. ↑ This figure is an estimate from the Texas Department of State Health Services.

In early 2020, deaths from all causes exceeded the seasonal average,[74] and data from early 2020 suggest additional deaths that were not counted in official reported coronavirus mortality statistics.[75] Until February 28, 2020, CDC testing protocols allowed tests only for people who had traveled to China.[76] In most U.S. locations, testing for some time was performed only on symptomatic people with a history of travel to Wuhan or with close contact to such people.[77][78][79] The numbers were reported every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday and were split into categories: individual travelers, people who contracted the disease from other people within the U.S., and repatriated citizens who returned to the U.S. from crisis locations, such as Wuhan, where the disease originated, and the cruise ship Diamond Princess.[80]

By March 26, 2020, the United States, with the world's third-largest population, surpassed China and Italy as the country with the world's highest number of confirmed cases.[81] By April 25, the U.S. had more than 905,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and nearly 52,000 deaths, giving it a mortality rate around 5.7 percent. (In comparison, Spain's mortality rate was 10.2 percent and Italy's was 13.5 percent.)[82][83]

In April 2020, more than 10,000 American deaths had occurred in nursing homes. Most nursing homes did not have easy access to testing, making the actual number unknown.[84] President Trump established a Coronavirus Commission for Safety and Quality in Nursing Homes.[85][86] Subsequently, a number of states including Maryland[87] and New Jersey[88] reported their own estimates of deaths at nursing homes, ranging from twenty to fifty percent of the states' total deaths. A PNAS report in September 2020 confirmed that the virus is much more dangerous for the elderly than the young, noting that about 70% of all U.S. COVID-19 deaths had occurred to those over the age of 70.[89]

As of early August 2020, among the 45 countries that had over 50,000 cases, the U.S. had the eighth highest number of deaths per-capita. Its case fatality ratio, however, was significantly better where it ranked 24th in the world, with 3.3% of its cases resulting in death.[90] Several studies suggested that the number of infections was far higher than officially reported, and thus that the infection fatality rate was far lower than the case fatality rate.[91][92]

The CDC estimates that 40% of people infected never show symptoms (i.e. are asymptomatic),[93] although there is a 75% chance they can still spread the disease. And while children have a lower risk of becoming ill or dying, the CDC warns that they can still function as asymptomatic carriers and transmit the virus to adults.[93] The American Academy of Pediatrics's weekly report[94] from when states started reporting to September 17, 2020 tracked 587,948 child COVID-19 cases, 5,016 child hospitalizations, and 109 child deaths.[95]

Epidemiologists depend on accurate reporting of cases and deaths to advise government response,[96] and some have questioned the reliability of the numbers of confirmed cases.[97] Rates differ among U.S. states, and there are also racial and economic disparities.[98][99][100] After a group of epidemiologists requested revisions in how the CDC counts cases and deaths, the CDC in mid-April 2020 updated its guidance for counting COVID-19 cases and deaths to recommend that U.S. states report both confirmed and probable ones, though the decision is left to each state.[101]

On September 25, 2020, The Lancet published the largest study at the time to measure COVID-19 antibody levels in the US population, finding that less than ten percent of the U.S. population had been exposed.[102][103][104] The study was published at a time when, according to Newsweek, "some U.S. officials have floated the concept of herd immunity as a possible strategy to manage the national outbreak,"[105] and according to the lead author of the study, Stanford Center for Tubulointerstitial Kidney Disease director Shuchi Anand, "this study does not support that there is herd immunity."[106] The research also uncovered racial and economic disparities in populations with COVID-19 antibodies[107][98] and highlighted the need for public health intervention to address the disparities.[99][100] At the time of the publication of the study, Anand announced that researchers would monitor the study participants for months to help determine the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation tactics.[105][107][103]

As of May 2021, the Centers for Disease Control estimated that there had been approximately 120 million infections in the United States.[108]

According to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University as of 19:21 Eastern Standard Time (EST) on 7 August 2021, the total COVID-19 cases in the US has crossed the 35.73 million mark, with the death toll reaching 616 712.[109]


Progression charts

New daily cases

Number of new daily cases, with a seven-day centered moving average:[110]

Deaths per day

Number of new daily deaths attributed to COVID-19, with a seven-day centered moving average:[110]

Weekly all-cause deaths

Weekly all-cause deaths in the U.S. based on CDC data (This data is projected deaths, rather than tabulated, and commonly takes three to eight weeks to reach a near-steady estimate), compared to the threshold for excess deaths:[111]

Deaths by age

Number of COVID-19 deaths by age as of February 5, 2022:[112][113]

Provisional COVID-19 deaths in the United States by age as of February 5, 2022
Age group Death count  % of deaths
All ages 898,699 100%
Under 1y 203 <0.1%
1-4y 93 <0.1%
5-14y 244 <0.1%
15-24y 2,347 0.3%
25-34y 9,964 1%
35-44y 25,116 3%
45-54y 60,577 7%
55-64y 132,106 15%
65-74y 205,457 23%
75-84y 230,870 26%
85y and over 231,722 26%

Deaths by sex

Number of COVID-19 deaths by sex and age as of February 9, 2022:[114]

Deaths by state

COVID-19 deaths per million of the populations of each state, along with the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico,[115] as of February 10, 2022:


Vaccine distribution

Vaccinations in the U.S. per day,[116] with a seven-day moving average.

Cumulative vaccine doses administered in the U.S.[116]

Number of U.S. positive test individuals by state over time

Data for all state charts sourced from the NY Times COVID Data.[110] (This reference tends to include confirmed and suspected cases. This leads to some disparity with other sources).

> 1,500,000 positive test individuals

800,000–1,500,000 positive test individuals

400,000–800,000 positive test individuals

150,000–400,000 positive test individuals

< 150,000 positive test individuals

Death projections

On March 31, 2020, the CDC projected that eventually 100,000–240,000 Americans would die of coronavirus.[117] The lower end of the estimate was reached within two months after the CDC made its projection,[118] and the upper end was surpassed in November 2020.[119]

The CDC uses an ensemble forecast, meaning it receives predictions from multiple sources and aggregates them to make its own forecast. As of December 2020, the CDC included 37 modeling groups in its ensemble forecast and was predicting the death toll 4 weeks in advance.[120]

Examples:

  • At the end of May 2020, the CDC correctly projected the death toll would surpass 115,000 by June 20.[121][122]
  • At the end of July 2020, the CDC correctly projected the death toll would surpass 168,000 by August 22.[123]
  • In mid-October 2020, the CDC correctly projected the death toll would reach 230,000–250,000 by mid-November.[123]

In mid-February 2021, when the death toll had already reached 470,000,[124] the IHME projected that the death toll would reach 600,000 by June 1.[125] However, the death rate dropped during this time period and the total death toll on June 1 was not as high as expected, having reached only about 592,000.[126] The total of 600,000 was reached two weeks later.[127]

In mid-September 2021, when the death toll had already reached 670,000, the IHME projected that the death toll would reach 775,000 by the end of the year.[128] That number was reached by the end of November 2021.[129]

On January 12, 2022, when the death toll had already reached 842,000, a CDC ensemble forecast predicted that 62,000 people would die over the next four weeks.[130]

Comparisons

Epidemics of similar size (the number is the U.S. death toll):

Other large epidemics:

References

  1. ↑ CDC (February 11, 2020). "Cases, Data, and Surveillance". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved December 19, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  2. ↑ Iuliano, A. Danielle; Chang, Howard H.; Patel, Neha N.; Threlkel, Ryan; Kniss, Krista; Reich, Jeremy; Steele, Molly; Hall, Aron J.; Fry, Alicia M.; Reed, Carrie (July 13, 2021). "Estimating Under-recognized COVID-19 Deaths, United States, March 2020-May 2021 using an Excess Mortality Modelling Approach". The Lancet Regional Health – Americas. 1: 100019. doi:10.1016/j.lana.2021.100019. ISSN 2667-193X. PMC 8275579. PMID 34386789.
  3. ↑ "Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—National Center for Health Statistics. Retrieved July 21, 2020.
  4. ↑ Woolf, Steven H.; Chapman, Derek A.; Sabo, Roy T. (April 2, 2021). "Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes in the US, March 1, 2020, to January 2, 2021". JAMA. 325 (17): 1786. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.5199. PMC 8019132. PMID 33797550. S2CID 232763669. Retrieved August 20, 2021.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  5. ↑ Multiple sources:
  6. ↑ Kliff, Sarah; Bosman, Julie (April 5, 2020). "Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll". The New York Times. Retrieved April 5, 2020.
  7. ↑ Abdelmalek, Mark; Margolin, Josh; Katersky, Aaron; David, Eden (April 7, 2020). "Coronavirus death toll in US likely worse than numbers say". ABC News. Retrieved April 10, 2020.
  8. ↑ Brown, Emma; Reinhard, Beth; Davis, Aaron C. (April 5, 2020). "Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 10, 2020.
  9. ↑ Swan, Jonathan; Baker, Sam (May 6, 2020). "Trump and some top aides question the accuracy of virus death toll". Axios.
  10. ↑ "Alabama's COVID-19 Data and Surveillance Dashboard". Alabama Department of Public Health. Retrieved February 23, 2021.
  11. ↑ "COVID-19: Case Counts". Alaska Department of Health and Social Services. December 24, 2020. Retrieved February 23, 2020.
  12. ↑ "Covid 19 coronavirus: Samoan officials on alert after three sailors test positive". The New Zealand Herald. November 9, 2020. Archived from the original on November 9, 2020. Retrieved December 1, 2020.
  13. ↑ "ADHS - Data Dashboard". Arizona Department of Health Services. February 13, 2021. Retrieved February 13, 2021.
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  105. 1 2 Czachor, Emily (September 27, 2020). "National Coronavirus Antibody Study Suggests Herd Immunity 'Remains Out of Reach' in the U.S." Newsweek. Retrieved March 9, 2021.
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