2024 United States presidential election

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Both incumbent president Biden and former president Donald Trump are eligible.[lower-alpha 1] Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[14] Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election.[15]

Both Biden and Trump have announced that they are running for president in 2024, suggesting a potential rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956.[16] If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining Grover Cleveland who did so in 1892.[17]

This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[18][19] If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[20]

Expected partisan lean of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia on the presidential level. The shading of each state denotes the winner's two-party vote share, averaged between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. States that flipped in 2020 are colored gray.

In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind one party. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties — are vital to winning the presidency. As of now, these include states in the Rust Belt, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.[21] North Carolina may also be considered a battleground state, due to the close result in the previous presidential election, in which Trump only won by 1.34%.[22] Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, favoring them in future statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, states like Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia have moved noticeably towards the Democrats, and the party has become the dominant political force there.[23][24][25]

The traditional Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, is mainly composed of minoritized communities (especially African-Americans and Latinos), women, educated professionals, and urban voters.[26] Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party became significantly more diverse and culturally liberal.[27] Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural white voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters.[28] Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement, a brand of right-wing populism cultivated by former President Donald Trump.[29] The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.[30]

Legal abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign. This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of two major court rulings that affected access to abortion. The first is the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[9] The second is the 2023 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, in which a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the FDA's approval of mifepristone in 2000, which could potentially pull the medication from the market if upheld by higher courts.[31] Both rulings have received strong support from Republican politicians and lawmakers.[9][31]

In 2022, six states held elections for ballot measures relating to the legality of abortion, and the pro-abortion rights side was victorious in every case, including in states easily won by President Trump.[32] By April 2023, a large majority of Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it "largely illegal" throughout much of the United States.[9] According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.[9]

Democrats are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right.[33] The topic of abortion will likely play a role in the Republican primary; some candidates such as former vice president Mike Pence, support federal restrictions on abortion and a ban of mifepristone,[34] while other candidates including former president Donald Trump do not support federal restrictions on the procedure.[35][9][36] The topic has not received much attention from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is also running for president and is widely seen as the leading challenger to former President Donald Trump. However, when a six-week abortion restriction was authorized by the Florida Legislature, DeSantis signed it into law on that day.[37] In September 2023, Republican candidates attacked Trump for calling Florida's six-week abortion ban "a terrible mistake", while disputing with each other over whether a federal ban should be imposed, or whether this should be left to the states to decide.[38]

The COVID-19 pandemic left behind significant economic effects which are likely to persist into 2024.[39] A period of high inflation began in 2021, caused by a confluence of events including the pandemic and a supply-chain crisis, which was then heightened by economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.[40][41] Opinion polling over Biden's handling of the economy has consistently been negative since late 2021.[42] Voters often cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election.[43][44]

Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the pandemic, particularly those who left their work for childcare responsibilities.[45] Temporary childcare measures, including an expanded child tax credit as part of the American Rescue Plan, were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents, but these would expire before the 2024 election.[46] Biden stated that offering universal pre-kindergarten services as well as caregiver support would be a priority of a second term.[47]

Under the Biden administration, several rounds of student loan forgiveness have been issued, totaling over $32 billion in relief, including for borrowers who had educational institutions who misled them on job placement, for borrowers who have become permanently disabled, and for borrowers enrolled in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program.[48] In August 2022, a plan was unveiled that would eliminate $10,000 in student loan debt for single graduates making less than $125,000 or married couples making less than $250,000.[49] $20,000 would be eliminated for borrowers of Pell Grants, a program aimed at providing need-based assistance.[50] In June 2023, this plan was overturned in the Supreme Court decision Biden v. Nebraska, which ruled that the HEROES Act, which the Biden administration had relied upon for authority, did not allow for widespread loan forgiveness.[51][52] Biden intends to implement new methods of student debt relief, working around the Supreme Court decision.[53]

Some Republican candidates/prospective candidates see education as a winning campaign issue. Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of critical race theory, an academic discipline focused on the examination of racial inequality. Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment.[54][55][56] Critics of the laws against critical race theory claim they whitewash American history and act as memory laws to rewrite public memory of U.S. history.[57]

Donald Trump did not concede to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, citing unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud, and has continued denying the election results as of 2023.[58][59] Republican officials in the Trump administration and in Congress have supported attempts to overturn the election.[60][61] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[62]

In the aftermath of the January 6 United States Capitol attack, FBI director Christopher A. Wray testified that far-right domestic terrorism "has been metastasizing across the country for a long time now, and it's not going away anytime soon."[63] Ali Alexander, who organized one of the many rallies preceding the U.S. Capitol attack, stated in August 2022 that he would be returning to the Capitol building in 2025 "for whatever the Congress certifies."[64]

Voluminous public polling has shown that large majorities of Americans belonging to both political parties believe that democracy in the United States is at risk.[65] Voters often cite different sources of threats to democracy depending on ideology. Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[66] Many conservatives believe that the Democrats cheated in the 2020 election,[67] and attempted or were still attempting to remove former President Trump from holding public office by any means necessary, including impeachment and indictment.[68] Voters of both parties tend to agree that the influence of money in politics, the potential for political violence, and general corruption of public officials are aggravating factors threatening the health of American democracy.[69]

The American electoral system is frequently criticized for being unfair due to the Electoral College, first-past-the-post voting and gerrymandering resulting in two political parties dominating the political scene for hundreds of years. Electoral reform had largely gained in popularity after the 2016 United States presidential election in which the candidate with a plurality vote lost the Electoral College. Candidates for the election campaigning for an electoral reform include Democratic candidate Marianne Williamson,[70] Libertarian candidate Lars Mapstead[71] and independent candidate Cornel West.[72]

During a National Rifle Association (NRA) conference in Indianapolis on April 14, 2023, Donald Trump and other potential Republican presidential candidates expressed their support for gun owners' rights, on the heels of recent mass shootings in Nashville and Louisville. Democrats criticized the GOP's march of candidates in front of the NRA, saying firearms will be a big issue throughout the 2024 election year.[37]

President Joe Biden has asked Congress to pass an assault weapons ban following the shooting in Nashville.[73]

The United States has provided significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[74] Democratic politicians and a significant number of Republican politicians have supported this plan, arguing that the United States has a significant role to play in "protecting democracy and fighting Russian aggression."[75] Some candidates, including Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, claim that Ukraine and suppressing Russian intervention should not be a significant interest to the United States, and that the plan should be more limited.[76] Vivek Ramaswamy favors ending U.S. military aid to Ukraine and would recognize Russian annexed territories.[77]

In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills that restrict the rights of LGBT people, especially transgender people.[78][79]

In a February campaign message, Donald Trump said that if reelected, he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders, claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left", and would enact nearly a dozen policies that would target transgender Americans. Ron DeSantis has signed several anti-LGBT laws as Governor of Florida, including the controversial Florida Parental Rights in Education Act, referred to by critics as the "Don't Say Gay" law, which prohibits speaking about sexual orientation and gender identity in Florida public schools.[80]

• Terrisa Bukovinac, founder of Pro-Life San Francisco and Progressive Anti-Abortion Uprising (PAAU), former president of Democrats for Life of America[105][106][107]
• Joe Exotic, businessman and media personality; independent candidate for president in 2016[108]
• Cenk Uygur, creator of The Young Turks, co-founder of Justice Democrats, Democratic candidate for California's 25th congressional district in 2020[109][110][lower-alpha 2]

• John Anthony Castro, tax consultant and perennial candidate[157]
• E. W. Jackson, pastor and nominee for lieutenant governor of Virginia in 2013[158]

The following individuals have been nominated by their respective parties to run for president.

• Peter Sonski, Connecticut local public office holder and director of the Knights of Columbus Museum.

• Claudia de la Cruz, political activist[176]

The following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.

• Joseph "Afroman" Foreman, rapper[177]
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr., attorney and activist (campaign; formerly ran for Democratic nomination)[178]
• Taylor Marshall, podcaster and author[179][180]
• Vermin Supreme, performance artist, activist, and perennial candidate; former Libertarian Party Judicial Committee member (2020–2022)[181]
• Cornel West, philosopher and public intellectual (campaign; formerly ran for Green nomination)[182]

• Chase Oliver, nominee for U.S. Senate in Georgia, 2022[183]
• Michael Rectenwald, author and former liberal studies professor at New York University[184]

• William H. McRaven, Commander of the United States Special Operations Command (2011–2014) and Chancellor of the University of Texas System (2015–2018)[185]
• Jesse Ventura, former Governor of Minnesota (1999–2003)[186]

• Bill Cassidy, United States Senator from Louisiana (2015–present)[187][lower-alpha 5]
• Liz Cheney, United States Representative from WY-AL (2017–2023), Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (2002–2004, 2005–2009)[188][lower-alpha 6]
• Tulsi Gabbard, United States Representative from HI-02 (2013–2021), member of the Honolulu City Council (2011–2012), member of the Hawaii House of Representatives (2002–2004), Democratic candidate for president in 2020[189]
• Larry Hogan, 62nd Governor of Maryland (2015–2023), Secretary of Appointments of Maryland (2003–2007)[190][lower-alpha 7]
• Joe Manchin, United States Senator from West Virginia (2010–present), 34th Governor of West Virginia (2005–2010), 27th West Virginia Secretary of State (2001–2005), member of the West Virginia Senate from the 13th district (1986–1996), member of the West Virginia House of Delegates from the 31st district (1982–1986)[191][lower-alpha 8]