2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Presidential primaries and caucuses are being organized by state Republican parties and legislatures to select their delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention, to determine the party's nominee for president in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The elections will take place individually in all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories, between January and June 2024. The 2024 Republican National Convention is scheduled to be held in July at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.[3]

2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

January 15 to June 11, 2024[1]

2,467 delegates (2,392 pledged and 75 unpledged) to the Republican National Convention[2][lower-alpha 1]
1,234[2] votes needed to win
Opinion polls

First place by first-instance vote

Previous Republican nominee

Donald Trump



Former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton entered the race on November 11, 2022, three days after the 2022 midterm elections and two years ahead of the 2024 election (he had earlier formed an exploratory committee on March 10, 2022).[4] Former President Donald Trump initiated his run for president on November 15. Former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley became the first to follow their entrance on February 14, followed by wealth management executive Vivek Ramaswamy one week later, businessman Perry Johnson on March 2, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson on April 6, radio host Larry Elder on April 20, businessman Ryan Binkley on April 23, U.S. Senator Tim Scott on May 19, Florida governor Ron DeSantis on May 24, former Vice President Mike Pence on June 5, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie on June 6, North Dakota governor Doug Burgum on June 7, Miami mayor Francis Suarez on June 14, and former U.S. Representative Will Hurd on June 22. Suarez dropped out of the race in August, with Hurd, Stapleton, Johnson and Elder following in October.

Trump is considered the frontrunner and has maintained a consistent lead in primary polling since 2020. Some Republicans have expressed concerns about his nomination due to his loss in 2020, his ongoing criminal investigations, and the results of the 2022 midterms in which several Trump-endorsed candidates lost key races and cost the party a widely anticipated red wave.[5] However, many others have supported him and decried the investigations as politically motivated.[6] Among non-Trump candidates, DeSantis initially polled in a close second behind Trump,[7] but his polling numbers fell significantly in 2023, bringing him closer to the other candidates.[8] Ramaswamy experienced a surge in polling during the same time period, and he has begun to outpace DeSantis in some polls.[9] However, Trump remains far ahead. The Republican primary has been called a "race for second" due to Trump's consistent and prohibitive lead in polling.[10]

Trump is the first president to run after leaving office since Herbert Hoover in 1940; if he wins the Republican nomination, he will be the first Republican to be nominated for president three separate times since Richard Nixon (Republican nominee in 1960, 1968, and 1972), and the first person to be the Republican presidential nominee in three consecutive elections. If he wins the general election, he will be the first president to serve non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland, who won his second term in 1892.[11] Meanwhile, Pence's candidacy makes him the first vice president to run against the president under whom they served since John Nance Garner in 1940,[12] while Burgum is the first person born in North Dakota to run for a major party's presidential nomination.[13]

Candidates

As of October 2023, more than 300 candidates have filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for the Republican nomination in 2024.[14] In previous cycles, the majority of these candidates did not appear on any ballots, raise money, or otherwise attempt to formally run a campaign.[14][15]

Declared major candidates

The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria:

  • their campaign has received substantial major media coverage.
  • the candidate is a current or previous holder of a significant elected office (such as president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative).
  • the candidate has been included in at least five national polls.

Declared major candidates for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date
Ref.

Ryan Binkley
November 19, 1967
(age 55)
Columbus, Georgia
Co-founder and CEO of Generational Equity Group (2006–present)
Co-founder and lead pastor of Create Church (2014–present)
Texas

Campaign
April 23, 2023
FEC filing[16][17]
Website
[18]

Doug Burgum
August 1, 1956
(age 67)
Arthur, North Dakota
Governor of North Dakota (2016–present)
Senior VP of Microsoft Business Solutions Group (2002–2007)
President of Great Plains Software (1984–2001)
North Dakota

Campaign
June 7, 2023
FEC filing[19]
Website
[20]

Chris Christie
September 6, 1962
(age 61)
Newark, New Jersey
Governor of New Jersey (2010–2018)
Candidate for president (2016)
U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey (2002–2008)
New Jersey

Campaign
June 6, 2023
FEC filing[21]
Website
[22]

Ron DeSantis
September 14, 1978
(age 45)
Jacksonville, Florida
Governor of Florida (2019–present)
U.S. Representative from FL-06 (2013–2018)
Florida

Campaign
May 24, 2023
FEC filing[23][24][25]
Website
[26]

Nikki Haley
January 20, 1972
(age 51)
Bamberg, South Carolina
Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018)
Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)
South Carolina State Representative (2005–2011)
South Carolina

Campaign
February 14, 2023
FEC filing[27]
Website
[28]

Asa Hutchinson
December 3, 1950
(age 72)
Bentonville, Arkansas
Governor of Arkansas (2015–2023)
Under Secretary of Homeland Security (2003–2005)
Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration (2001–2003)
Arkansas

Campaign
April 6, 2023
FEC filing[29]
Website
[30]

Mike Pence
June 7, 1959
(age 64)
Columbus, Indiana
Vice President of the United States (2017–2021)
Governor of Indiana (2013–2017)
U.S. Representative from IN-06 (2003–2013)
U.S. Representative from IN-02 (2001–2003)
Indiana

Campaign
June 5, 2023
FEC filing[31]
Website
[32]

Vivek Ramaswamy
August 9, 1985
(age 38)
Cincinnati, Ohio
Executive chairman of Strive Asset Management (2022–present)
CEO of Roivant Sciences (2014–2021)
Ohio

Campaign
February 21, 2023
FEC filing[33][34]
Website
[35]

Tim Scott
September 19, 1965
(age 58)
North Charleston, South Carolina
U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present)
U.S. Representative from SC-01 (2011–2013)
South Carolina State Representative (2009–2011)
South Carolina

Campaign
May 19, 2023
FEC filing[36][37]
Website
[38]

Donald Trump
June 14, 1946
(age 77)
Queens, New York
President of the United States (2017–2021)
Chairman of The Trump Organization (1971–2017)
Florida[lower-alpha 2]

Campaign
November 15, 2022
FEC filing[39][40]
Website
[41]

Other declared candidates

The candidates in this section are otherwise notable, but have not met the criteria outlined above.

Withdrew before the primaries

The candidates in this section have suspended their campaigns, or have otherwise ceased campaigning and ended their bids for the nomination before any primary contests were held.

Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
announced
Campaign
suspended
Campaign Ref.

Larry Elder
April 27, 1952
(age 71)
Los Angeles, California
Host of The Larry Elder Show (1993–2022)
Candidate for Governor of California in the 2021 recall election
 California April 20, 2023 October 26, 2023
(endorsed Trump)

Campaign
FEC filing[44]
Website
[45][46]

Perry Johnson
January 23, 1948
(age 75)
Dolton, Illinois
Founder of Perry Johnson Registrars, Inc. (1994–present)
Disqualified candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2022
 Michigan March 2, 2023 October 20, 2023
(endorsed Trump)

Campaign
FEC filing[47]
Website
[48][49][50]

Corey Stapleton
September 17, 1967
(age 56)
Seattle, Washington
Montana Secretary of State (2017–2021)
Montana State Senator (2001–2009)
 Montana November 11, 2022
Exploratory committee:
March 10, 2022
October 13, 2023
Campaign
FEC filing[51]
Website
[52][53][54]

Will Hurd
August 19, 1977
(age 46)
San Antonio, Texas
U.S. Representative from TX-23 (2015–2021)  Texas June 22, 2023 October 9, 2023
(endorsed Haley)

Campaign
FEC filing[55]
Website
[56][57]

Francis Suarez
October 6, 1977
(age 45)
Miami, Florida
Mayor of Miami (2017–present)
Member of the Miami City Commission (2009–2017)
 Florida June 14, 2023 August 29, 2023
Campaign
FEC filing[58]
Website[lower-alpha 3]
[59][60]

Other notable individuals who were not considered major candidates and who withdrew from the race before the beginning of the primary season include:


Publicly expressed interest

As of October 2023, the following notable individuals have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Potential candidates

As of October 2023, there has been speculation about the potential candidacy of the following notable individuals within the previous six months.

Declined to be candidates

The following notable individuals have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy but have publicly denied interest in running.

Timeline

December 2021

On December 2, perennial candidate John Anthony Castro announced his campaign for the presidency in a tweet and said that he'd sue Donald Trump to have him judicially declared ineligible for public office.[116]

March 2022

On March 10, 2022, former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton announced he was forming an exploratory committee for the Republican nomination in 2024.[4]

November 2022

Three days after the 2022 midterm elections, Stapleton confirmed his candidacy for the presidency in 2024.[117][118]

A week after the 2022 midterm elections, at Mar-a-Lago, former president Donald Trump announced that he would run again for the presidency in 2024. If elected, he would become the only president other than Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms.[119]

February 2023

On February 2, former Cranston, Rhode Island mayor Steve Laffey announced he was entering the race in a video statement.[61]

On February 14, former South Carolina governor and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley released a video announcing her presidential candidacy.[120]

On February 21, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy announced his presidential candidacy on Tucker Carlson Tonight.[121]

March 2023

On March 2, businessman Perry Johnson, a Michigan gubernatorial candidate in 2022, who had been deemed ineligible to appear on the primary ballot by the Board of State Canvassers due to alleged fraudulent signatures, announced his intent to run for president of the United States.[48]

April 2023

On April 1, businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley filed to run with the Federal Election Commission.[122]

On April 2, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson announced his candidacy during an interview with ABC News' Jonathan Karl.[123]

On April 6, Hutchinson filed his run with the Federal Election Commission.[29]

On April 12, the junior U.S. Senator from South Carolina Tim Scott announced an exploratory committee to run for president.[124]

On April 20, former California gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder announced his campaign on Tucker Carlson Tonight.[125]

On April 23, Binkley announced his presidential campaign at the University of Texas at Dallas campus.[126]

May 2023

On May 19, Tim Scott submitted FEC paperwork to run;[127] he announced his presidential run publicly on May 22.[128]

On May 24, Florida governor and former U.S. representative Ron DeSantis submitted his FEC paperwork to run,[129] and announced that he was running for president during a Twitter Spaces interview with Twitter owner Elon Musk.[130]

June 2023

On June 5, former Vice President Mike Pence filed paperwork to run for president[131] and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum released a campaign video.[132]

On June 6, Burgum published an announcement opinion-editorial piece announcing his presidential run in the Wall Street Journal,[133] making him the first person born in North Dakota to seek a major party's president nomination.[13][lower-alpha 4] The same day, former New Jersey governor and 2016 presidential candidate Chris Christie publicly announced a presidential campaign in New Hampshire.[135]

On June 7, Pence publicly announced his bid with a campaign video.[136] Also, Burgum delivered a public announcement speech in Fargo.[137]

On June 14, Miami mayor Francis Suarez filed his run with the Federal Election Commission. He delivered a speech the next day at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library to publicly announce his campaign, as four other Republicans in the race had done in the last year.[138][139][140][141][142]

On June 22, former CIA agent and representative of Texas Will Hurd launched a run, after previously expressing interest in launching a presidential bid.[143]

July 2023

On July 14, pastor E.W. Jackson announced his candidacy.[144]

August 2023

On August 1, Donald Trump was indicted a third time for trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.

On August 14, Donald Trump was indicted a fourth time for trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in the state of Georgia.

Trump said he would not attend the first debate, and instead planned a show with Tucker Carlson during the same time slot.[145]

On August 21, the slate of candidates that officially qualified for the debate was released: Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Tim Scott.[146]

On August 23, the first Republican candidates debate took place in Milwaukee, broadcast by Fox News and moderated by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.[147] To be eligible for this debate, a candidate must have polled at least one percent, received donations from 40,000 individuals, and signed a loyalty pledge to back whoever ultimately wins the party presidential nomination.[148] Candidates deemed eligible for the debate were Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott.[149] Trump did not participate in the debate, instead filming an interview with Tucker Carlson that was released minutes before the debate was scheduled to begin.[150]

On August 29, Francis Suarez suspended his presidential campaign, becoming the first candidate to do so.[151]

September 2023

On September 18, Donald Trump's campaign announced that he would be giving a speech in Detroit, Michigan to striking United Auto Workers union members at the same time as the second debate in California.[152] However, United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain pointed out that Trump's speech was being held at a non-union plant whose workers were not connected to the strike.[153]

On September 20, a senior advisor to the Trump campaign told Bloomberg that Trump plans to skip the third debate in Miami.[154]

On September 26, the slate of candidates that qualified and would attend are: Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, Chris Christie and Doug Burgum. Asa Hutchinson, who appeared for the first debate, did not qualify.[155]

On September 27, the second Republican presidential debate took place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.[156] The requirements to attend the debate were to be polling at three percent in at least three reputable national polls, while the donor requirement increases to 50,000 unique donations.[157]

October 2023

On October 2, the Supreme Court of the United States declined to hear John Anthony Castro's case to disqualify Donald Trump from appearing on the ballot.[158][159]

On October 6, former Cranston, Rhode Island mayor Steve Laffey dropped out of the race.[160]

On October 9, former Representative Will Hurd withdrew from the race.[161]

On October 13, former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton dropped out of the race.[54]

On October 20, businessman Perry Johnson suspended his campaign.[162]

On October 26, former talk radio show host Larry Elder suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump.[46]

November 2023

On November 8, the third Republican presidential debate will take place in Miami, Florida.[163]

January 2024

On January 15, the first election of the cycle takes place with the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses.

Overview

Francis Suarez 2024 presidential campaignWill Hurd 2024 presidential campaignCorey Stapleton 2024 presidential campaignPerry Johnson 2024 presidential campaignLarry Elder 2024 presidential campaignDonald Trump 2024 presidential campaignTim Scott 2024 presidential campaignVivek Ramaswamy 2024 presidential campaignMike Pence 2024 presidential campaignAsa Hutchinson 2024 presidential campaignNikki Haley 2024 presidential campaignRon DeSantis 2024 presidential campaignChris Christie 2024 presidential campaignDoug Burgum 2024 presidential campaign
Active campaign Exploratory committee Withdrawn candidate Republican National Convention
Midterm elections Debates Primaries

Debates

The first Republican debate was held on August 23, hosted by Fox News and moderated by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.[147] To be eligible for the debate, a candidate must have polled with at least 1% of voter support, received donations from 40,000 individuals, and signed a loyalty pledge to back whoever ultimately wins the party presidential nomination.[148] Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Tim Scott all qualified for the first debate. Donald Trump gave an interview with Tucker Carlson during the same time slot.[146]

The second Republican debate was held on September 27, in Simi Valley, California at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. The requirements were similar to the first debate, but increased the number of individual donors required to 50,000 and required the candidates to poll at or above three percent in two national polls or in one national poll and two "early state" polls.[164] Seven candidates were invited to the second debate: Burgum, Christie, DeSantis, Haley, Pence, Ramaswamy, and Scott.[165]

The third debate will take in place in Miami, Florida on November 8.[166] The donor threshold for the third debate increases to 70,000 unique donors, including 200 donors in 20 or more states, while the polling threshold increases to four percent in two national polls or four percent in one national poll and four percent in two statewide polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina.[167]

Endorsements

Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the House of Representatives.
  Endorsed Donald Trump (77)
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (6)
  Endorsed Mike Pence (2)
  Endorsed Doug Burgum (1)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (1)
  No endorsement (108)
  Declined to endorse a candidate (26)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the U.S. Senate.
  Endorsed Donald Trump (11)
  Endorsed Doug Burgum (2)
  Endorsed Tim Scott (2)
  No endorsement (20)
  Declined to endorse a candidate (13)
  Currently running (1)
Endorsements by incumbent Republican governors.
  Endorsed Donald Trump (4)
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (1)
  Endorsed Mike Pence (1)
  No endorsement (15)
  Declined to endorse a candidate (4)
  Currently running (2)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in lower state legislative bodies.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (283)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (139)
  Endorsed Tim Scott (12)
  Endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy (10)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (5)
  Endorsed Larry Elder (1)
  Endorsed Mike Pence (1)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in upper state legislative bodies.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (80)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (24)
  Endorsed Tim Scott (10)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (3)
  Endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy (1)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the Iowa Senate.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (13)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (6)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (1)
  Endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy (1)
  No endorsement (13)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the Iowa House of Representatives.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (23)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (13)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (1)
  No endorsement (27)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the New Hampshire House of Representatives.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (63)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (46)
  Endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy (8)
  Endorsed Larry Elder (1)
  No endorsement (81)
  Non-Republicans (201)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the South Carolina House of Representatives.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (11)
  Endorsed Tim Scott (11)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (9)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (3)
  No endorsement (56)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the South Carolina Senate.
  Endorsed Tim Scott (10)
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (4)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (1)
  No endorsement (15)

Opinion polling

Local regression graph of all polls conducted since January 2023.

Campaign finance

This is an overview of the money used by each campaign as it is reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Totals raised include individual contributions, loans from the candidate, and transfers from other campaign committees. Individual contributions are itemized (catalogued) by the FEC when the total value of contributions by an individual comes to more than $200. The last column, Cash On Hand, shows the remaining cash each campaign had available for its future spending as of September 30, 2023. Campaign finance reports for the fourth quarter of 2023 will become available on January 15, 2024.[168]

This table does not include contributions made to Super PACs or party committees supporting the candidate. Each value is rounded up to the nearest dollar.

  Candidate who withdrew prior to September 30
  Candidate who withdrew following September 30
Overview of campaign financing for candidates in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries through September 30, 2023
Candidate Total raised Total raised
since last quarter
Individual contributions Debt Spent Spent since
last quarter
Cash on hand
Total Unitemized Pct
Binkley[169] $7,086,371 $4,990,944 $331,327 $107,841 32.5% $6,664,175 $7,074,934 $5,590,586 $11,437
Burgum[170] $15,179,666 $3,411,365 $2,935,366 $593,430 20.2% $12,200,653 $12,857,090 $4,742,728 $2,322,576
Christie[171] $5,439,033 $3,782,647 $5,405,108 $1,515,736 28.0% $0 $1,523,814 $1,457,602 $3,915,219
DeSantis[172] $31,647,462 $11,159,968 $29,053,203 $5,587,634 19.2% $1,089,428 $19,320,557 $11,073,186 $12,326,905
Haley[173] $18,709,236 $8,240,333 $14,115,020 $3,413,529 24.2% $0 $7,157,544 $3,502,174 $11,551,692
Hutchinson[174] $1,249,302 $666,781 $1,127,734 $466,918 41.4% $0 $924,015 $720,172 $325,287
Pence[175] $4,525,729 $3,356,996 $4,345,294 $1,830,940 42.1% $621,445 $3,344,277 $3,269,934 $1,181,451
Ramaswamy[176] $26,609,180 $7,444,499 $9,560,937 $4,466,614 46.7% $15,250,000 $22,361,303 $12,227,262 $4,247,877
Scott[177] $13,048,548 $4,597,516 $11,085,680 $3,676,600 33.2% $927,827 $21,902,702 $12,374,262 $13,330,124[lower-alpha 5]
Trump[178] $60,523,078 $24,535,602 $198,506 $48,495 24.4% $295,222 $22,981,118 $9,510,032 $37,541,961
Elder[179] $1,437,945 $970,414 $1,412,068 $958,737 63.7% $0 $1,193,444 $1,050,530 $244,501
Hurd[180] $1,452,538 $1,179,025 $1,449,065 $731,948 50.5% $0 $1,229,463 $1,201,069 $223,074
Johnson[181] $14,569,477 $5,762,284 $147,720 $0 0% $12,502,240 $13,441,587 $7,174,976 $1,127,750
Stapleton[182] $8,427 $174 $8,427 $1,315 15.6% $0 $5,509 $549 $2,918
Suarez[183] $1,425,517 $480,067 $1,425,517 $125,798 8.8% $35,903 $1,365,124 $1,318,524 $60,393

Primaries and caucus calendar

Caucuses and primaries in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Date[184] Total
delegates
Primaries/caucuses
January 15 40 Iowa caucus
January (TBD) 22 New Hampshire primary
February 6 - Nevada primary[lower-alpha 6]
February 8 35 26
9
Nevada caucus
Virgin Islands caucus
February 24 50 South Carolina primary
February 27 55 Michigan primary
March 2 86 32
54
Idaho caucus
Missouri caucus[185]
March 3 19 District of Columbia primary
March 4 29 North Dakota caucus
March 5
(Super Tuesday)
874 49
28
9
40
169
37
20
40
39
75
43
58
162
40
17
48
Alabama primary
Alaska primary
American Samoa
Arkansas primary
California primary
Colorado primary
Maine primary
Massachusetts primary
Minnesota primary
North Carolina primary
Oklahoma primary
Tennessee primary
Texas primary
Utah primary
Vermont primary
Virginia primary
March 9 9 Guam caucus
March 10 32 9
23
Northern Marianas caucus
Puerto Rico primary
March 12 160 59
19
39
43
Georgia primary
Hawaii caucus
Mississippi primary
Washington primary
March 19 349 43
125
64
39
78
Arizona primary
Florida primary
Illinois primary
Kansas primary
Ohio primary
March 23 46 Louisiana primary
April 2 76 16
19
41
Delaware primary
Rhode Island primary
Wisconsin primary
April 18–20 29 Wyoming primary
April 23 67 Pennsylvania primary
April 30 119 28
91
Connecticut primary
New York primary
May 7 89 58
31
Indiana primary
West Virginia primary
May 14 73 37
36
Maryland primary
Nebraska primary
May 21 77 46
31
Kentucky caucus
Oregon primary
June 4 131 31
49
22
29
Montana primary
New Jersey primary
New Mexico primary
South Dakota primary

Timing

GOP rules mandate that changes to all contest dates must occur by September 2023, and there appears to be a trend of contests being scheduled earlier than usual.[186] They also specify that all must occur between March and June 11, 2024 – except for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina – which are allowed to hold contests in February. Iowa, however, chose to hold its caucus the earliest in over a decade, on a federal holiday – January 15 – as the rules are not legally binding. New Hampshire is expected in late January, a result of state law requiring it to be held at least a week prior to other primaries. Nevada is expected on February 6, with South Carolina on February 24 and Michigan on February 27. The bulk of contests will be concentrated in March, as in previous presidential primaries.[187]

Nevada controversy

After the 2020 presidential election, the state of Nevada moved to establish a presidential primary for both parties. Previously, party-organized caucuses were used in Nevada to determine delegates in presidential elections.

In May 2023, the Nevada Republican Party sued the state of Nevada in an effort to continue the use of caucuses as the means to determine its delegate allocation. It was stated in a court filing from the Nevada Attorney General's office that the Nevada Republican Party was allowed to choose between a primary or caucus, since the primary is non-binding and because state law does not mandate specific rules governing how political parties are to choose its candidate for president.[188]

On August 14, 2023, the Nevada Republican Party announced it would hold its caucuses on February 8 with the February 6 state primary being non-binding.[189]

Michigan controversy

The Michigan primary will take place 2 weeks early, on February 27, 2024 – if its legislature adjourns as expected a month early by November 29, 2023. Michigan legislature laws not passed with a supermajority go into effect 90 days after the adjournment of its session.[190]

The Michigan primaries were originally scheduled to be held in March and thus in accordance with Republican rules, but Democrats (who are in control of the Michigan legislature and governorship after the 2022 midterm elections) decided to move up both primaries as part of their own 2024 presidential delegate selection plan. As a result, the earlier date of February 27 violates Republican rules – which state that only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina can vote earlier than March 1, 2024.

Michigan Republicans are facing a harsh penalty of up to 90% of their delegates being stripped, if they go forward with their earlier primary. Republicans in Michigan have criticized Democrats in Michigan for their unilateral move and are considering boycotting the earlier primary and instead are considering a party-run caucus later in March.[191]

Delegates

There will be an estimated total of 2,467 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention. In contests until March 15, delegates must be awarded on a proportional basis, either by percentage of statewide vote or share of congressional districts won. However, some states have established thresholds between 4 and 20% for proportionality to kick in, under which a candidate receives no delegates. A vast majority, 41 contests totaling 1,920 delegates, operate this way using methods that are hybrid between proportionality and majority-take-all. New York for example has a 20% threshold for proportionality but if a candidate wins a majority, they take all delegates. North Dakota, Wyoming, American Samoa, Guam, Virgin Islands, and 51 of Pennsylvania's 67 delegates are unpledged (free to vote for anyone at the convention), totaling 119. Florida, New Jersey, Ohio, Colorado, Arizona, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Montana's delegates are strictly awarded on a plurality-take-all basis, totaling 428. It will be possible for a candidate to take all 928 delegates of 19 contests by simply winning a threshold of votes. By Super Tuesday, over 40% of delegates will have been awarded, and most by March 19. GOP rules mandate changes to delegate allocation methods happen by September 30. The primaries will conclude with a final vote on the nominee by a majority of delegates at the newly elected Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, which will be held July 15–18.[192][193]

Candidate filing deadlines

As of August 2023, at least 20 states have announced their filing deadlines for presidential candidates seeking the nomination of their party in order to appear on the state's ballots. Between September 1 and October 15, 2023, Nevada has the nation's first filing window and deadline for its February 8, 2024, presidential caucus. The filing window for the New Hampshire primary will be between October 11–27. 13 additional states, including populous California and Texas, have filing deadlines by December 22, 2023.[194]

See also

Notes

  1. This delegate count is accurate as of October 2023. Delegate counts are subject to change based on the number of Republicans elected to the state legislatures, governorships, U.S. House, and U.S. Senate through December 31, 2023.
  2. Trump's original state of residence was New York, but that changed when he moved to Mar-a-Lago in 2019.
  3. Archived August 23, 2023, at the Wayback Machine
  4. The first North Dakotan to run for president was U.S. Representative William Lemke who ran as the Union Party's nominee in 1936, but Lemke was not born in the state. The first person born in the state to run for president was Gary Johnson who ran as the Libertarian Party's nominee in 2012 and 2016; Johnson briefly sought the Republican nomination in 2012.[134]
  5. Scott's principal campaign committee, Tim Scott for America, was also used for his earlier congressional campaigns. Some of these figures, therefore, include money left over from those previous candidacies.
  6. The state-organized primary will be boycotted by the Nevada Republican Party and its results ignored in favor of the party-organized caucus two days later.

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