2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

The 2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States elections in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote.

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 20 0
Popular vote 2,970,733 2,926,441
Percentage 48.18% 47.46%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Pennsylvania
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Treemap of the popular vote by county.

On April 26, 2016, in the presidential primaries, voters selected the Democratic, Republican, and Green parties' respective nominees for president. Pennsylvania is a closed primary state, meaning voters must have been previously registered with a particular political party in order to vote for one of that parties' candidates, to participate in their respective party primary.[1]

In the general election, Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes out of more than 6 million cast, a margin of 0.72% and the narrowest margin in a presidential election since 1840, when William Henry Harrison defeated Martin Van Buren by just 0.12%. Pennsylvania voted 2.82% more Republican than the nation-at-large, marking the first time since 1948 that Pennsylvania voted to the right of the nation.

Prior to the election, Pennsylvania was expected to be close as polling showed the results within the margin of error, but many election experts viewed that Clinton had an edge.[2][3] However, on Election Day, Pennsylvania unexpectedly swung to Donald Trump. Trump carried 56 of the state's 67 counties, predominantly rural or suburban counties, while Clinton carried much of the Philadelphia metropolitan area as well as other cities including Pittsburgh, Harrisburg and Scranton. Nonetheless, some areas of traditional Democratic strength such as Luzerne County, where Wilkes-Barre is located, saw swings in margins of up to 25% toward Donald Trump, making him the first Republican nominee for president to win Pennsylvania since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Trump also flipped Erie County Republican for the first time since 1984, and Northampton County since 1988.

Primaries

Democratic primary
Main article: 2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary
Results of the Democratic primary by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 26, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 935,107 55.61% 106 20 126
Bernie Sanders 731,881 43.53% 83 0 83
Rocky De La Fuente 14,439 0.86% 0 0 0
Total 1,681,427 100% 189 20 209
Source: The Green Papers, Pennsylvania State Elections Official Results

Republican primary
Republican primary results by county.
  Donald Trump
Pennsylvania Republican primary, April 26, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 902,593 56.61% 17 42 59
Ted Cruz 345,506 21.67% 0 4 4
John Kasich 310,003 19.44% 0 3 3
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 14,842 0.93% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 11,954 0.75% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 9,577 0.60% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 5 5
Total: 1,594,475 100.00% 17 54 71
Source: The Green Papers

Green Party

Pennsylvania held a series of caucuses throughout April, culminating with a meeting on April 30 in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, where delegates were assigned.[4][5]

Pennsylvania Green Party presidential caucuses, April 17, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein - - 8
William Kreml - - 1
Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza Curry - - -
Darryl Cherney - - -
Kent Mesplay - - -
Total - 100.00% 9

Democratic National Convention

From July 25 to July 28, 2016, Philadelphia hosted the 2016 Democratic National Convention. It was held at the Wells Fargo Center with ancillary meetings at the Pennsylvania Convention Center. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was chosen as the party's nominee for president by a 59.67% majority of delegates present at the convention roll call and then winning the nomination. While runner-up rival Senator Bernie Sanders received 39.16% of votes from delegates. Clinton becoming the first female candidate to be formally nominated by a major national party as a presidential candidate in the United States. Her running mate, Senator Tim Kaine, the junior United States senator from Virginia was chosen by delegates as the party's nominee for vice president by acclamation.

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
CNN[6] Lean D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[7] Lean D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[8] Lean D November 6, 2016
NBC[9] Lean D November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[10] Tossup November 6, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[11] Lean D November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Lean D November 7, 2016

Statewide results
2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican
2,970,733 48.18
Democratic
2,926,441 47.46
Libertarian
146,715 2.38
Green
49,941 0.81
Constitution
21,572 0.60
Independent
6,472 0.10
Independent Bernie Sanders (write-in) 6,060 0.10
Republican John Kasich (write-in) 302 0.00
Independent
3 0.00
Write-in 37,239 0.60
Total votes 6,165,478 100%
Republican win

By congressional district

Trump won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including one which elected a Democrat, while Clinton won 6 including two that elected a Republican.[15]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1 18% 80% Bob Brady
2 8% 90% Chaka Fattah
Dwight Evans
3 61% 35% Mike Kelly
4 59% 37% Scott Perry
5 62% 34% Glenn Thompson
6 48% 48% Ryan Costello
7 47% 49% Patrick Meehan
8 48% 48% Mike Fitzpatrick
Brian Fitzpatrick
9 70% 27% Bill Shuster
10 66% 30% Tom Marino
11 60% 36% Lou Barletta
12 59% 38% Keith Rothfus
13 32% 65% Brendan Boyle
14 31% 66% Mike Doyle
15 52% 44% Charlie Dent
16 51% 44% Joe Pitts
Lloyd Smucker
17 53% 43% Matt Cartwright
18 58% 39% Tim Murphy

By county
County[16] Donald John Trump
Republican		 Hillary Rodham Clinton
Democratic		 Gary Earl Johnson
Libertarian		 Jill Ellen Stein
Green		 Darrell Lane Castle
Constitution		 Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Adams 31,423 66.17% 14,219 29.94% 1,251 2.63% 405 0.85% 191 0.40% 17,204 36.23% 47,489
Allegheny 259,480 39.91% 367,617 56.55% 16,102 2.48% 5,097 0.78% 1,818 0.28% -108,137 -16.63% 650,114
Armstrong 23,484 74.27% 7,178 22.70% 685 2.17% 141 0.45% 130 0.41% 16,306 51.57% 31,618
Beaver 48,167 57.64% 32,531 38.93% 2,022 2.42% 496 0.59% 355 0.42% 15,636 18.71% 83,571
Bedford 19,552 82.72% 3,645 15.42% 260 1.10% 102 0.43% 78 0.33% 15,907 67.30% 23,637
Berks 96,626 52.78% 78,437 42.85% 5,247 2.87% 1,974 1.08% 781 0.43% 18,189 9.94% 183,065
Blair 39,135 71.27% 13,958 25.42% 1,256 2.29% 338 0.62% 222 0.40% 25,177 45.85% 54,909
Bradford 18,141 70.57% 6,369 24.77% 893 3.47% 137 0.53% 168 0.65% 11,772 45.79% 25,708
Bucks 164,361 47.74% 167,060 48.52% 8,556 2.49% 3,121 0.91% 1,199 0.35% -2,699 -0.78% 344,297
Butler 64,428 66.37% 28,584 29.45% 3,062 3.15% 615 0.63% 382 0.39% 35,844 36.93% 97,071
Cambria 42,258 67.00% 18,867 29.91% 1,270 2.01% 413 0.65% 264 0.42% 23,391 37.09% 63,072
Cameron 1,589 72.69% 531 24.29% 53 2.42% 6 0.27% 7 0.32% 1,058 48.40% 2,186
Carbon 18,743 65.13% 8,936 31.05% 691 2.40% 265 0.92% 141 0.49% 9,807 34.08% 28,776
Centre 35,274 46.32% 37,088 48.71% 2,644 3.47% 798 1.05% 344 0.45% -1,814 -2.38% 76,148
Chester 116,114 43.20% 141,682 52.71% 7,930 2.95% 2,247 0.84% 827 0.31% -25,568 -9.51% 268,800
Clarion 12,576 71.72% 4,273 24.37% 469 2.67% 115 0.66% 102 0.58% 8,303 47.35% 17,535
Clearfield 24,932 72.75% 8,200 23.93% 776 2.26% 220 0.64% 143 0.42% 16,732 48.82% 34,271
Clinton 10,022 65.10% 4,744 30.82% 470 3.05% 121 0.79% 37 0.24% 5,278 34.29% 15,394
Columbia 18,004 63.78% 8,934 31.65% 883 3.13% 265 0.94% 142 0.50% 9,070 32.13% 28,228
Crawford 24,987 66.65% 10,971 29.26% 1,046 2.79% 271 0.72% 217 0.58% 14,016 37.38% 37,492
Cumberland 69,076 56.80% 47,085 38.72% 3,975 3.27% 939 0.77% 542 0.45% 21,991 18.08% 121,617
Dauphin 60,863 46.51% 64,706 49.44% 3,498 2.67% 1,177 0.90% 628 0.48% -3,843 -2.94% 130,872
Delaware 110,667 37.18% 177,402 59.60% 5,992 2.01% 2,588 0.87% 985 0.33% -66,735 -22.42% 297,634
Elk 10,025 69.49% 3,853 26.71% 401 2.78% 79 0.55% 68 0.47% 6,172 42.78% 14,426
Erie 60,069 48.57% 58,112 46.99% 3,871 3.13% 1,139 0.92% 488 0.39% 1,957 1.58% 123,679
Fayette 34,590 64.33% 17,946 33.38% 853 1.59% 232 0.43% 146 0.27% 16,644 30.96% 53,767
Forest 1,683 70.10% 626 26.07% 60 2.50% 19 0.79% 13 0.54% 1,057 44.02% 2,401
Franklin 49,768 71.37% 17,465 25.05% 1,712 2.46% 450 0.65% 336 0.48% 32,303 46.33% 69,731
Fulton 5,694 84.09% 912 13.47% 93 1.37% 37 0.55% 35 0.52% 4,782 70.62% 6,771
Greene 10,849 68.82% 4,482 28.43% 284 1.80% 83 0.53% 66 0.42% 6,367 40.39% 15,764
Huntingdon 14,494 73.55% 4,539 23.03% 425 2.16% 96 0.49% 152 0.77% 9,955 50.52% 19,706
Indiana 24,888 65.89% 11,528 30.52% 936 2.48% 220 0.58% 198 0.52% 13,360 35.37% 37,770
Jefferson 15,192 78.00% 3,650 18.74% 432 2.22% 110 0.56% 94 0.48% 11,542 59.26% 19,478
Juniata 8,273 79.14% 1,821 17.42% 201 1.92% 71 0.68% 88 0.84% 6,452 61.72% 10,454
Lackawanna 48,384 46.77% 51,983 50.25% 1,935 1.87% 896 0.87% 258 0.25% -3,599 -3.48% 103,456
Lancaster 137,914 57.20% 91,093 37.78% 8,555 3.55% 2,021 0.84% 1,529 0.63% 46,821 19.42% 241,112
Lawrence 25,428 62.40% 14,009 34.38% 870 2.13% 248 0.61% 198 0.49% 11,419 28.02% 40,753
Lebanon 40,525 65.53% 18,953 30.65% 1,647 2.66% 422 0.68% 298 0.48% 21,572 34.88% 61,845
Lehigh 73,690 45.77% 81,324 50.51% 4,027 2.50% 1,402 0.87% 550 0.34% -7,634 -4.74% 160,993
Luzerne 78,688 58.29% 52,451 38.86% 2,339 1.73% 1,178 0.87% 327 0.24% 26,237 19.44% 134,983
Lycoming 35,627 70.46% 13,020 25.75% 1,311 2.59% 384 0.76% 223 0.44% 22,607 44.71% 50,565
McKean 11,635 71.40% 4,025 24.70% 408 2.50% 151 0.93% 77 0.47% 7,610 46.70% 16,296
Mercer 31,544 60.30% 18,733 35.81% 1,370 2.62% 415 0.79% 247 0.47% 12,811 24.49% 52,309
Mifflin 14,094 75.77% 3,877 20.84% 476 2.56% 80 0.43% 74 0.40% 10,217 54.93% 18,601
Monroe 33,386 47.86% 33,918 48.63% 1,502 2.15% 758 1.09% 188 0.27% -532 -0.76% 69,752
Montgomery 162,731 37.44% 256,082 58.91% 10,934 2.52% 3,704 0.85% 1,236 0.28% -93,351 -21.48% 434,687
Montour 5,288 61.80% 2,857 33.39% 287 3.35% 73 0.85% 51 0.60% 2,431 28.41% 8,556
Northampton 71,736 49.98% 66,272 46.18% 3,690 2.57% 1,371 0.96% 450 0.31% 5,464 3.81% 143,519
Northumberland 25,427 69.43% 9,788 26.73% 931 2.54% 296 0.81% 180 0.49% 15,639 42.70% 36,622
Perry 15,616 73.81% 4,632 21.89% 619 2.93% 163 0.77% 128 0.60% 10,984 51.91% 21,158
Philadelphia 108,748 15.37% 584,025 82.53% 7,115 1.01% 6,679 0.94% 1,064 0.15% -475,277 -67.16% 707,631
Pike 16,056 61.51% 9,256 35.46% 492 1.88% 226 0.87% 71 0.27% 6,800 26.05% 26,101
Potter 6,251 80.31% 1,302 16.73% 165 2.12% 35 0.45% 31 0.40% 4,949 63.58% 7,784
Schuylkill 44,001 69.99% 16,770 26.67% 1,414 2.25% 449 0.71% 235 0.37% 27,231 43.31% 62,869
Snyder 11,725 71.66% 4,002 24.46% 455 2.78% 111 0.68% 70 0.43% 7,723 47.20% 16,363
Somerset 27,379 76.54% 7,376 20.62% 678 1.90% 166 0.46% 174 0.49% 20,003 55.92% 35,773
Sullivan 2,291 73.05% 750 23.92% 65 2.07% 14 0.45% 16 0.51% 1,541 49.14% 3,136
Susquehanna 12,891 68.34% 5,123 27.16% 568 3.01% 192 1.02% 89 0.47% 7,768 41.18% 18,863
Tioga 13,614 74.29% 3,901 21.29% 548 2.99% 139 0.76% 123 0.67% 9,713 53.00% 18,325
Union 10,622 60.81% 6,180 35.38% 450 2.58% 143 0.82% 73 0.42% 4,442 25.43% 17,468
Venango 16,021 68.62% 6,309 27.02% 733 3.14% 149 0.64% 136 0.58% 9,712 41.60% 23,348
Warren 12,477 67.68% 5,145 27.91% 549 2.98% 130 0.71% 133 0.72% 7,332 39.77% 18,434
Washington 61,386 60.51% 36,322 35.80% 2,643 2.61% 733 0.72% 366 0.36% 25,064 24.71% 101,450
Wayne 16,244 67.63% 7,008 29.18% 466 1.94% 206 0.86% 94 0.39% 9,236 38.45% 24,018
Westmoreland 116,522 64.01% 59,669 32.78% 4,367 2.40% 936 0.51% 557 0.31% 56,853 31.23% 182,051
Wyoming 8,837 67.23% 3,811 28.99% 323 2.46% 116 0.88% 57 0.43% 5,026 38.24% 13,144
York 128,528 62.40% 68,524 33.27% 6,484 3.15% 1,568 0.76% 882 0.43% 60,004 29.13% 205,986
Totals2,970,73348.58%2,926,44147.85%146,7152.40%49,9410.82%21,5720.35%44,2920.72%6,115,402

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

2016 would also be the first presidential election since 1948 in which the Democratic nominee won the popular vote without the state. Pennsylvania's vote for Donald Trump, along with that of Wisconsin and Michigan, marked the fall of the Democratic Blue Wall, a bloc of over 240 electoral votes that voted solidly Democratic from 1992 to 2012. Pennsylvania was one of the eleven states to have voted twice for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 which Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. Although Wisconsin eventually delivered the Trump victory, when the Clinton campaign learned that they had lost Pennsylvania, they then knew that they had lost the election.[17] Trump became the first Republican ever to win the White House without carrying Chester or Dauphin Counties, as well as the first to do so without carrying Centre County since Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and the first to do so without carrying Monroe County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924. He also became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania without carrying any of Philadelphia's suburban counties.

This was the first election since 1988 that Pennsylvania and New York voted for different candidates, and the first since 1976 that it voted differently than New Jersey. This was also the first time since 1932 that the state voted Republican and New Jersey voted Democratic. This is the only time since George W. Bush's victory in New Hampshire in 2000 that a Republican won a northeastern state.

See also

References
  1. "About Voting and Elections". Votespa.com. May 19, 2015. Archived from the original on April 8, 2016. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
  2. "Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein". realclearpolitics.com. November 5, 2016.
  3. "Clinton Has Solid Lead in Electoral College; Trump's Winning Map Is Unclear". The New York Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved October 30, 2018. The final nonpartisan live interview polls there show Mrs. Clinton ahead by a comfortable margin of four to six points. The state will probably be close, but it's quite clear that she has the edge.
  4. "2016 PA Green Party Caucus Information and Schedule". Pennsylvania Green Party. April 9, 2016. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
  5. "#Greens, join us in caucusing and voting for our GP of PA Presidential Candidates in April". Pennsylvania Green Party. April 9, 2016. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
  6. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  7. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  8. "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  9. Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  10. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  11. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  12. Sabato, Larry (November 7, 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  13. Federal Election Commission (December 2017). "Federal Elections 2016" (PDF). p. 39. Retrieved November 13, 2021.
  14. "Kathleen Monahan". Ballotpedia. Retrieved November 13, 2021.
  15. "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
  16. "Pennsylvania Elections – County Breakdown Results". electionreturns.pa.gov. November 8, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2019.
  17. Burstein, Nanette (Director) (March 6, 2020). Episode 4 - Be Our Champion, Go Away (Documentary). Hillary. Hulu.

Further reading
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