Opinion polling for the 2024 European Parliament election

The European Parliament election is set to take place in June 2024. This article lists national polls for the EU election as well as EU-wide seat projections and popular vote estimates.

List of polling

There are no pan-European polls for the European elections. However, several organizations calculate the theoretical seat distribution in the European Parliament in advance to the EP election based on national polls in all member states. The table below displays these different projections. The projections prior to 31 January 2020 still include the United Kingdom, which left the EU on that date.[1]

Seats

The following table shows the projected number of seats for the groups in the European Parliament.

Organisation Release
date		 Area Number of seats GUE/NGL S&D Greens/EFA Renew EPP ECR ID NI Others Lead
KAS[2] 23 Oct 2023 EU27 720 42 146 46 94 168 77 73 30 44 22
Europe Elects[3] 30 Sep 2023 EU27 720 43 145 52 90 165 86 74 56 10 21
Der Föderalist[4] 15 Sep 2023 EU27 720 43 147 46 91 162 77 74 36 43 15
720 45 147 50 96 171 90 89 32 24
705 42 144 46 90 157 77 72 35 41 13
705 44 144 50 95 165 89 87 31 21
Europe Elects[5] 31 Aug 2023 EU27 720 38 149 53 90 164 83 75 58 10 15
POLITICO Europe[6] 9 Aug 2023 EU27 705 45 145 48 89 165 89 77 47 20
Europe Elects[7] 31 Jul 2023 EU27 705 45 143 49 90 157 82 82 55 12 14
Der Föderalist[8] 17 Jul 2023 EU27 705 41 136 48 94 160 79 70 36 41 24
705 43 137 52 99 167 89 87 31 30
Der Föderalist[9] 22 May 2023 EU27 705 49 137 50 92 162 79 67 33 36 25
705 50 137 54 99 172 82 83 28 35
Europe Elects[10] 28 Apr 2023 EU27 705 51 141 49 89 163 85 64 51 11 22
Der Föderalist[11] 27 Mar 2023 EU27 705 44 137 42 94 162 78 68 38 42 25
705 46 141 46 102 170 81 84 35 29
Der Föderalist[12] 1 Feb 2023 EU27 705 50 135 42 96 168 78 65 37 34 33
705 52 138 47 103 172 82 80 31 34
Der Föderalist[13] 8 Dec 2022 EU27 705 51 136 44 93 166 79 64 37 35 30
705 53 139 50 100 170 83 80 30 31
Europe Elects[14] 7 Dec 2022 EU27 705 49 142 56 100 158 84 63 46 7 16
Europe Elects[15] 1 Nov 2022 EU27 705 55 135 53 106 162 81 66 41 6 27
Der Föderalist[16] 12 Oct 2022 EU27 705 52 127 42 100 169 79 63 35 38 42
705 54 130 48 108 174 84 80 27 44
Der Föderalist[17] 20 Aug 2022 EU27 705 52 134 47 98 170 75 63 27 39 36
705 54 137 53 107 175 80 76 23 38
Der Föderalist[18] 22 Jun 2022 EU27 705 54 133 44 101 165 77 64 31 36 32
705 56 136 54 106 168 81 79 25 32
Der Föderalist[19] 26 Apr 2022 EU27 705 59 139 39 97 157 78 64 37 35 18
705 60 143 49 102 159 84 76 32 16
Der Föderalist[20] 1 Mar 2022 EU27 705 53 139 36 98 158 78 62 45 36 19
705 55 142 44 105 160 109 62 28 18
Europe Elects[21] 8 Jan 2022 EU27 705 49 152 55 99 158 78 62 35 17 6
Der Föderalist[22] 4 Jan 2022 EU27 705 51 142 39 99 165 73 62 34 40 23
705 53 146 43 105 166 102 62 28 20
Europe Elects[23] 7 Dec 2021 EU27 705 50 155 55 103 146 81 75 36 4 9
Der Föderalist[24] 8 Nov 2021 EU27 705 50 144 42 96 155 75 72 36 35 11
705 52 148 48 107 156 23 120 51 8
Europe Elects[25] 4 Nov 2021 EU27 705 50 155 51 102 151 81 75 35 5 4
Europe Elects[26] 8 Oct 2021 EU27 705 50 154 47 94 156 78 75 36 15 2
Der Föderalist[27] 13 Sep 2021 EU27 705 54 141 42 98 160 70 75 33 32 19
705 56 145 48 107 160 22 116 51 15
Der Föderalist[28] 21 Jul 2021 EU27 705 52 133 45 97 167 71 74 31 35 34
705 54 138 49 108 168 23 117 48 30
Europe Elects[29] 9 Jul 2021 EU27 705 52 144 55 94 156 75 77 34 18 12
Europe Elects[30] 5 Jun 2021 EU27 705 51 146 58 92 155 76 74 35 18 9
Der Föderalist[31] 24 May 2021 EU27 705 50 125 50 95 167 74 73 33 38 42
705 52 130 54 109 167 87 74 32 37
Europe Elects[32] 2 May 2021 EU27 705 52 144 56 93 158 75 74 34 19 14
Europe Elects[33] 2 Apr 2021 EU27 705 51 151 52 93 159 74 74 32 19 8
Der Föderalist[34] 29 Mar 2021 EU27 705 52 136 46 96 164 71 73 34 33 28
705 54 141 49 109 164 85 73 30 23
3 Mar 2021 Hungary's Fidesz party leaves the EPP Group.[35]
Der Föderalist[36] 2 Feb 2021 EU27 705 52 135 45 94 184 70 71 21 33 49
705 53 141 48 107 184 73 71 28 49
Europe Elects[37] 5 Jan 2021 EU27 705 55 138 47 97 190 73 72 22 11 52
Der Föderalist[38] 9 Dec 2020 EU27 705 52 136 47 93 188 67 73 20 29 52
705 53 140 40 103 188 73 73 25 48
Europe Elects[39] 2 Dec 2020 EU27 705 55 136 48 95 195 68 73 23 12 59
Europe Elects[40] 31 Oct 2020 EU27 705 54 136 48 93 197 70 74 24 9 61
Der Föderalist[41] 12 Oct 2020 EU27 705 51 127 49 96 193 67 71 21 30 66
705 52 136 52 102 193 71 71 28 – 57
Europe Elects[42] 4 Oct 2020 EU27 705 55 136 49 95 195 71 77 23 4 59
Europe Elects[43] 31 Aug 2020 EU27 705 55 134 49 96 196 71 75 24 5 62
Europe Elects[44] 14 Aug 2020 EU27 705 54 134 49 97 198 70 75 23 5 64
Europe Elects[45] 24 Jul 2020 EU27 705 54 133 48 97 198 71 77 24 3 65
Europe Elects[46] 28 May 2020 EU27 705 55 135 47 98 197 70 77 23 3 62
Europe Elects[47] 30 Apr 2020 EU27 705 55 140 46 94 193 72 78 23 4 53
Europe Elects[48] 31 Mar 2020 EU27 705 57 135 51 92 188 72 83 21 6 53
Europe Elects[49] 29 Feb 2020 EU27 705 56 133 55 99 184 68 85 21 6 51
Europe Elects[50] 31 Jan 2020 EU27 705 55 130 53 101 182 70 85 23 6 52
31 Jan 2020 The United Kingdom leaves the European Union.[51]
Europe Elects[52] 31 Dec 2019 EU27 705 54 131 52 102 182 70 86 25 3 51
Europe Elects[53] 31 Dec 2019 EU28 751 53 153 52 103 177 103 82 25 3 24
Europe Elects[1] 30 Nov 2019 EU28 751 49 157 61 107 176 95 80 25 1 19
Europe Elects[1] 31 Aug 2019 EU28 751 46 151 62 115 175 92 78 30 2 24
Europe Elects[1] 30 Sep 2019 EU28 751 48 151 63 118 170 87 79 32 3 19
Europe Elects[1] 31 Aug 2019 EU28 751 47 154 64 116 166 89 80 32 3 12
Europe Elects[1] 31 Jul 2019 EU28 751 48 153 65 117 168 85 79 33 3 15
Europe Elects[1] 30 Jun 2019 EU28 751 46 145 74 119 167 64 80 54 2 22
Redistribution of seats after Brexit 1 Feb 2020 EU27 705 40 148 68 97 187 62 76 27 – 39
2019 European Parliament election 26 May 2019 EU28 751 41 154 74 108 182 62 73 57 – 28

The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted for the 2024 European Parliament election using a six-poll moving average. From 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom is not included.

The following table shows the projected popular vote share for the groups in the EU Parliament aggregated on the European level. EU27 excludes the United Kingdom in this context. EU28 includes the United Kingdom.

Organisation Release
date		 Area The Left S&D Greens/EFA Renew EPP ECR ID NI Others Lead
Europe Elects[14] 7 Dec 2022 EU27 7.2% 18.8% 8.1% 11.7% 21.2% 11.2% 8.9% 5.5% 7.2% 2.4%
Europe Elects[15] 1 Nov 2022 EU27 8.0% 18.3% 8.1% 12.0% 21.6% 11.3% 8.7% 5.7% 6.1% 3.3%
Europe Elects[21] 8 Jan 2022 EU27 6.7% 20.6% 7.2% 11.9% 20.7% 10.3% 8.8% 5.0% 8.8% 0.1%
Europe Elects[23] 7 Dec 2021 EU27 7.0% 20.4% 7.4% 13.6% 19.2% 10.3% 10.4% 4.8% 6.9% 1.2%
Europe Elects[25] 4 Nov 2021 EU27 6.9% 20.7% 7.2% 13.0% 19.5% 10.7% 10.2% 5.3% 6.5% 1.2%
Europe Elects[26] 8 Oct 2021 EU27 7.3% 20.3% 7.2% 12.0% 20.3% 10.5% 10.3% 5.3% 6.8% Tie
Europe Elects[29] 9 Jul 2021 EU27 7.2% 17.9% 8.0% 11.8% 21.2% 10.3% 10.6% 5.0% 8.0% 3.3%
Europe Elects[30] 5 Jun 2021 EU27 7.8% 18.0% 9.1% 11.4% 20.6% 10.5% 10.4% 5.0% 7.1% 2.6%
Europe Elects[47] 2 May 2021 EU27 7.9% 18.3% 8.5% 11.3% 20.3% 10.5% 10.6% 5.1% 7.4% 2.0%
Europe Elects[48] 2 Apr 2021 EU27 8.0% 18.7% 8.2% 11.2% 21.6% 10.2% 10.8% 4.9% 6.3% 2.9%
3 Mar 2021 Hungary's Fidesz party leaves the EPP Group.[35]
Europe Elects[37] 2 Mar 2021 EU27 7.9% 18.9% 7.5% 11.1% 23.1% 10.3% 10.8% 3.8% 6.6% 4.2%
Europe Elects[37] 2 Feb 2021 EU27 8.2% 18.6% 7.5% 10.9% 24.4% 10.1% 10.5% 3.8% 6.0% 5.8%
Europe Elects[37] 31 Dec 2020 EU27 8.4% 18.9% 7.5% 10.9% 24.1% 10.2% 10.5% 3.6% 5.9% 5.2%
Europe Elects[39] 2 Dec 2020 EU27 8.2% 18.5% 7.7% 10.9% 24.8% 9.5% 10.5% 3.8% 6.0% 6.3%
Europe Elects[40] 31 Oct 2020 EU27 7.6% 18.4% 7.7% 10.8% 25.0% 9.9% 10.6% 4.0% 6.1% 6.6%
Europe Elects[42] 4 Oct 2020 EU27 7.9% 17.9% 7.8% 11.4% 24.4% 9.7% 11.0% 4.1% 5.7% 6.5%
Europe Elects[43] 31 Aug 2020 EU27 8.1% 18.3% 7.4% 11.5% 25.0% 9.6% 10.9% 4.1% 5.2% 6.7%
Europe Elects[44] 14 Aug 2020 EU27 8.0% 18.0% 7.2% 11.5% 25.3% 9.4% 10.8% 3.8% 6.0% 7.3%
Europe Elects[45] 24 Jul 2020 EU27 8.3% 17.9% 7.4% 11.6% 25.7% 9.5% 10.9% 4.1% 4.6% 7.8%
Europe Elects[46] 28 May 2020 EU27 8.2% 18.0% 7.2% 11.3% 25.2% 9.6% 11.1% 4.0% 5.4% 7.2%
Europe Elects[47] 30 Apr 2020 EU27 8.2% 18.5% 7.2% 10.9% 25.3% 9.8% 11.4% 3.9% 4.7% 6.8%
Europe Elects[48] 31 Mar 2020 EU27 8.5% 18.2% 8.0% 10.7% 24.1% 10.0% 11.8% 3.8% 4.9% 5.9%
Europe Elects[49] 29 Feb 2020 EU27 9.1% 18.0% 8.4% 10.9% 22.7% 9.7% 12.5% 3.8% 4.9% 4.7%
Europe Elects[50] 31 Jan 2020 EU27 8.0% 18.6% 8.4% 12.4% 20.5% 12.1% 12.1% 4.0% 3.9% 1.9%
31 Jan 2020 The United Kingdom leaves the European Union.[51]
Europe Elects[1] 31 Dec 2019 EU28 8.1% 18.8% 8.2% 11.8% 20.9% 12.4% 11.9% 4.2% 3.7% 2.1%
Europe Elects[1] 30 Nov 2019 EU28 8.0% 18.4% 8.4% 12.3% 20.3% 12.0% 12.0% 4.0% 3.8% 1.9%
Europe Elects[1] 31 Oct 2019 EU28 6.5% 17.8% 8.3% 13.1% 20.3% 10.0% 11.3% 4.8% 7.9% 2.5%
Europe Elects[1] 30 Sep 2019 EU28 6.6% 19.5% 8.3% 12.3% 19.6% 9.7% 11.3% 4.8% 7.9% 0.1%
Europe Elects[1] 31 Aug 2019 EU28 6.9% 19.0% 8.7% 12.9% 20.0% 9.6% 11.4% 5.6% 5.9% 1.0%
Europe Elects[1] 31 Jul 2019 EU28 6.6% 19.0% 9.4% 12.8% 19.3% 9.3% 11.5% 5.3% 6.7% 0.3%
Europe Elects[1] 30 Jun 2019 EU28 6.9% 18.9% 10.3% 13.3% 19.1% 9.8% 11.4% 5.1% 5.2% 0.2%
2019 European Parliament election[54] 26 May 2019 EU27 7.0% 18.9% 11.2% 12.3% 22.6% 8.1% 11.5% 4.3% 4.1% 3.7%
2019 European Parliament election[1] EU28 6.5% 18.5% 11.7% 13.0% 21.0% 8.2% 10.8% 4.8% 5.5% 2.5%

National opinion polling

Austria
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 ÖVP
EPP		 SPÖ
S&D		 FPÖ
ID		 Grüne
G/EFA		 NEOS
Renew		 Others Lead
IFDD 1–4 Oct 2023 837 25 25 25 14 8 3 Tie
2019 legislative election 29 Sep 2019 – 37.5 21.2 16.2 13.9 8.1 3.2 16.3
2019 European election 26 May 2019 – 34.6 23.9 17.2 14.1 8.4 1.8 9.7

France
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 LO–
NPA
NI		 NUPES EAC
NI		 PRG
S&D		 PS
diss.
NI		 PA
G/EFA		 RE–
MoDem–
Horizons
Renew		 LR
EPP		 DLF
NI		 RN
ID		 REC
NI		 Others Lead
PCF
Left		 LFI
Left		 PS–PP
S&D		 EELV
G/EFA		 GE
NI
Ifop 12–13 Oct 2023 1,515 1 5 9 9 8 – 2 – – – 20 8 2 28 6 2 8
1 5 9 9 9 – 1.5 – – – 20 8.5 2.5 28 5 1 8
Ifop 30–31 Aug 2023 1,126 1 5 10 9 8 – 2 – – – 21 8 3 25 6.5 1.5 4
2 6 11[lower-alpha 1] 10 – 2 – – – 23 9 3 25 7 2 2
1 5 9[lower-alpha 2] 10 8 – 1.5 – – – 21 9 3 25 6.5 1 4
Cluster17 16–19 Aug 2023 1,713 1.5 3 22.5 – 5 2.5 – 2.5 20.5 7 3 23 7 2.5 0.5
1.5 20.5 7.5 – 3 2.5 – 2.5 20 7 3 23.5 7 2 3
1.5 25[lower-alpha 3] – 4 2.5 – 2.5 20 7.5 4 24 7 2 1
1 25[lower-alpha 4] – 4 3 – 3 20 7.5 3.5 24 7 1.5 1
2 23[lower-alpha 5] – 4.5 3 – 3 21 7.5 3 24 7 2 1
2 25[lower-alpha 6] – 4.5 2.5 – 2.5 20 7 4 24 7 1.5 1
Ifop 4–5 Jul 2023 1,008 1 4 8 9 9 – – – – – 20 11 4 26 7 1 6
Ipsos 16–26 Jun 2023 10,631 1.5 4 8.5 10 10 – – – – – 21 9 2.5 24 6.5 3 3
2 24 – – – – – 24 10 3 25 7 5 1
1.5 5 9.5 15 – – – – – 23 9 2.5 25 6.5 3 2
Elabe 19–21 Jun 2023 1,397 1.5 2 8.5 9.5 11 – – – – – 22.5 8.5 2.5 26 5.5 2.5 3.5
1.5 24.5 – – – – – 26 9 2.5 27 5.5 4 1
Cluster17 17–19 May 2023 1,760 2 4 11 9 11 – – – – – 19.5 7.5 3 24 6.5 3.5 4.5
2 27 – – – – – 23 8.5 4 25.5 7 3 1.5
Ifop 10–11 May 2023 1,310 1 5 10 10 10 – – – – – 19 8 3 25 6 3 6
2 26[lower-alpha 7] – – – – – 22 11 3 26 6 4 Tie
Harris Interactive 5–9 May 2023 1,262 2 23[lower-alpha 8] – – – – 3 26 13 2 21 5 5 3
1 19[lower-alpha 8] 5 – – 6 3 24 12 2 20 5 3 4
1 3 9 10 11 – – – – 1 23 12 2 20 5 3 3
2019 European election 26 May 2019 – 0.8 2.5 6.3 6.2 13.5 1.8 [lower-alpha 9] – 2.2 22.4 8.5 3.5 23.3 – 9.0 0.9
  1. LFI–PS list led by Segolène Royal
  2. LFI list led by Segolène Royal
  3. NUPES list led by Marie Toussaint (EELV)
  4. NUPES list led by Manon Aubry (LFI)
  5. NUPES list led by Léon Deffontaines (PCF)
  6. NUPES list led by Olivier Faure (PS)
  7. NUPES list led by LFI and EELV
  8. NUPES list led by EELV
  9. with PS

Germany
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Union
EPP		 Grüne
G/EFA		 SPD
S&D		 AfD
ID		 Linke
Left		 FDP
Renew		 PARTEI
NI		 FW
Renew		 Tiersch.
Left		 Others Lead
INSA 31 Jul 2023 1,001 26 15 19 23 5 7 6 3
Wahlkreisprognose 7–14 Jul 2023 1,040 23 13.5 15 22 2.5 3.5 2 3 1.5 14[lower-alpha 1] 1
Wahlkreisprognose 15–16 Dec 2022 1,100 22 21 21 18.5 3.5 3.5 2 3.5 2.5 2.5 1
Wahlkreisprognose 24–26 Feb 2022 1,722 22 19.5 22.5 12.5 3 7.5 2.5 3 2 5.5 0.5
2021 federal election 26 Sep 2021 – 24.1 14.8 25.7 10.3 4.9 11.5 1.0 2.4 1.5 3.8 1.6
2019 European election 26 May 2019 – 28.9 20.5 15.8 11.0 5.5 5.4 2.4 2.2 1.4 6.9 8.4
  1. 8.5 for hypothetical Sahra Wagenknecht list

Hungary
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Fidesz-
KDNP
NI–EPP		 DK
S&D		 Momentum
Renew		 MSZP
S&D		 P
G/EFA		 LMP
G/EFA		 Jobbik
NI		 Our Homeland
NI		 MKKP
NI		 Other Lead
Republikon Jun 2023 – 46 19 7 4 6 6 9 4 – 27
Nézőpont 15–17 May 2023 1,000 51 16 9 2 1 3 5 6 3 4 35
Závecz Research Apr 28–5 May 2023 1,000 46 19 8 6 2 4 6 7 3 – 27
Nézőpont 2–4 Jan 2023 1,000 56 14 6 2 1 3 2 6 4 6 42
2022 parliamentary election 3 April 2022 – 54.1 34.4 5.9 3.3 2.3 19.7
2019 election 26 May 2019 – 52.6 16.1 9.9 6.6 2.2 6.3 3.3 2.6 0.4 36.5

Romania
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 PNL
EPP		 PSD
S&D		 USR
Renew		 PLUS
Renew		 PRO
S&D		 PMP
EPP		 UDMR
EPP		 AUR
ECR		 S.O.S.
NI		 FD
EPP		 PUSL
S&D		 Others Lead
Avangarde 20–28 Sep 2023 994 21 31 13 – 1 3 5 19 5 1 – 1 10
LARICS 11–25 Sep 2023 1,003 22.9 31.5 15.2 — — 4.4 3.2 14.6 4.7 — — 3.5 8.6
INSOMAR 28–31 Aug 2023 1,030 15 25 7 – – 3 4 27 4 3 2 10 2
2020 parliamentary election 6 Dec 2020 – 25.2 28.9 15.4 4.1 4.8 5.7 9.1 – – – 6.8 3.7
2019 election 26 May 2019 – 27.0 22.5 22.4 6.4 5.8 5.3 – – – – 6.6 4.5

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