Opinion polling for the next Estonian parliamentary election
In the run-up to the next Estonian parliamentary election, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Estonia. Results of such polls are displayed in this Wikipedia page.
The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2023 Estonian parliamentary election held on 5 March. Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded.
Poll trackers
Trackers of voting intentions and other election-related polling:
- Europe Elects
- Politico
- Politpro
- ERR (in Estonian)
- Reitingud (in Estonian)
Graphical summary
Local regression chart of poll results
Polling results
2023
There are 101 seats in the Riigikogu in total. Parties are denoted with an em dash if no indication is given of their level in polls.
| Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size |
Ref | EKRE | Kesk | E200 | SDE | Isamaa | EÜVP | Parem | EER | Others | Lead | Gov. | Opp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16–20 Oct | Norstat | 1,000 | 18.3 | 24.6 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 22.6 | — | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 35.0 | 65.0 |
| 13–18 Oct | Kantar Emor | 1,486 | 19.7 | 17.4 | 14.3 | 7.2 | 14.8 | 18.5 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 2.8 | — | 1.2 | 41.7 | 58.3 |
| 10–13 Oct | Norstat | 1,000 | 20.4 | 22.3 | 15.9 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 20.1 | — | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 36.2 | 63.8 |
| 3–9 Oct | Norstat | 1,000 | 20.4 | 24.0 | 15.1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 17.0 | — | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 37.5 | 62.5 |
| 28 Sep–6 Oct | Turu-uuringute AS | 879 | 23 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 41 | 59 |
| 26 Sep–2 Oct | Norstat | 1,000 | 23.2 | 21.8 | 14.4 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 18.0 | — | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 40.2 | 59.8 |
| 18–25 Sep | Norstat | 1,000 | 23.2 | 24.8 | 15.0 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 16.9 | — | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 39.1 | 60.9 |
| 14–20 Sep | Kantar Emor | 1,491 | 24.2 | 20.6 | 16.4 | 7.3 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 2.2 | — | 3.6 | 43.4 | 56.6 |
| 11–18 Sep | Norstat | 1,000 | 25.1 | 21.2 | 15.5 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 15.2 | — | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 3.9 | 41.9 | 58.0 |
| 4–11 Sep | Norstat | 1,000 | 25.8 | 24.1 | 16.6 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 13.1 | — | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 42.5 | 57.5 |
| 31 Aug–10 Sep | Turu-uuringute AS | 891 | 23 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 60 |
| 29 Aug–4 Sep | Norstat | 1,000 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 16.8 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 13.3 | — | 1.4 | 2.8 | 0.5 | Tie | 40.0 | 60.0 |
| 21–28 Aug | Norstat | 1,000 | 27.2 | 22.5 | 16.6 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 11.2 | — | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 4.7 | 45.3 | 54.8 |
| 14–21 Aug | Norstat | 1,000 | 24.1 | 23.5 | 19.0 | 8.9 | 10.6 | 9.5 | — | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 43.6 | 56.3 |
| 10–16 Aug | Kantar Emor | 1,494 | 25.3 | 17.6 | 17.0 | 7.4 | 13.8 | 10.6 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 2.7 | — | 7.7 | 46.5 | 53.5 |
| 7–14 Aug | Norstat | 1,000 | 24.9 | 25.2 | 17.9 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | — | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 44.0 | 56.0 |
| 3–13 Aug | Turu-uuringute AS | 877 | 23 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 56 |
| 31 Jul–7 Aug | Norstat | 1,000 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 18.1 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 10.0 | — | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | Tie | 43.4 | 55.6 |
| 24–31 Jul | Norstat | 1,000 | 25.1 | 20.2 | 19.1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 9.4 | — | 1.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 4.9 | 46.1 | 53.9 |
| 18–23 Jul | Norstat | 1,000 | 29.5 | 21.2 | 17.5 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 9.8 | — | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 8.3 | 47.0 | 52.9 |
| 10–20 Jul | Kantar Emor | 1,486 | 26.3 | 20.2 | 16.2 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | — | 6.1 | 47.6 | 52.4 |
| 11–17 Jul | Norstat | 1,000 | 28.3 | 22.6 | 18.4 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 10.1 | — | 2.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5.7 | 44.1 | 55.9 |
| 4–10 Jul | Norstat | 1,000 | 25.7 | 23.8 | 17.7 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 10.1 | — | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 42.8 | 57.2 |
| 26–30 Jun | Norstat | 1,000 | 29.3 | 24.2 | 16.1 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 10.0 | — | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 5.1 | 44.4 | 55.6 |
| 12–20 Jun | Norstat | 1,000 | 28.6 | 20.4 | 15.8 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 12.0 | — | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 8.2 | 46.5 | 53.6 |
| 8–14 Jun | Kantar Emor | 1,476 | 24.9 | 21.2 | 16.8 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 0.6 | 3.9 | 2.4 | — | 3.7 | 46.2 | 54.0 |
| 7–13 Jun | Turu-uuringute AS | 871 | 26 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 54 |
| 6–12 Jun | Norstat | 1,000 | 24.0 | 25.4 | 15.4 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 10.0 | — | 3.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 44.0 | 56.0 |
| 29 May–6 Jun | Norstat | 1,000 | 27.7 | 21.8 | 15.1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 10.3 | — | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 46.6 | 53.3 |
| 23–29 May | Norstat | 1,000 | 25.0 | 26.3 | 18.1 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 8.1 | — | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 42.6 | 57.4 |
| 15–22 May | Norstat | 1,000 | 25.1 | 24.5 | 17.0 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 8.1 | — | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 46.4 | 53.6 |
| 10–17 May | Kantar Emor | 1,501 | 22.7 | 22.5 | 17.6 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 8 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | — | 0.2 | 45.7 | 54.4 |
| 8–15 May | Norstat | 1,000 | 23.3 | 27.0 | 20.1 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 7.8 | — | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 40.0 | 60.0 |
| 4–15 May | Turu-uuringute AS | 879 | 23 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 53 |
| 2–6 May | Norstat | 1,000 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 18.6 | 13.5 | 7.7 | 6.9 | — | 2.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | Tie | 45.2 | 54.7 |
| 25 Apr–1 May | Norstat | 1,000 | 24.6 | 22.0 | 15.7 | 15.1 | 9.2 | 6.5 | — | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 48.9 | 51.1 |
| 18–24 Apr | Norstat | 1,000 | 24.4 | 22.1 | 14.7 | 15.8 | 7.8 | 9.0 | — | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 48.0 | 52.0 |
| 10–19 Apr | Kantar Emor | 1,495 | 23.2 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 4.2 | 3.2 | — | 6.7 | 51.8 | 48.2 |
| Kaja Kallas' third cabinet is formed by Reform, E200 and SDE[1] | |||||||||||||||
| 10–17 Apr | Norstat | 1,000 | 21.6 | 24.6 | 17.2 | 14.2 | 9.3 | 7.3 | — | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 45.1 | 54.9 |
| 3-11 Apr | Turu-uuringute AS | 1,174 | 24 | 19 | 13 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 49 |
| 3–10 Apr | Norstat | 1,000 | 23.8 | 18.2 | 19.3 | 16.1 | 10.1 | 8.3 | — | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 50.0 | 50.1 |
| 27 Mar–3 Apr | Norstat | 1,000 | 26.8 | 18.3 | 18.0 | 14.7 | 8.4 | 8.0 | — | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 8.5 | 49.9 | 50.1 |
| 20–27 Mar | Norstat | 1,000 | 24.8 | 18.6 | 17.3 | 16.0 | 10.2 | 7.7 | — | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 6.2 | 51.0 | 49.0 |
| 14–20 Mar | Norstat | 1,000 | 29.3 | 17.1 | 14.2 | 15.5 | 11.9 | 7.5 | — | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 12.2 | 56.7 | 43.3 |
| 9–17 Mar | Kantar Emor | 1,586 | 29.3 | 15.7 | 15.4 | 16.3 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | — | 12.7 | 57.2 | 42.8 |
| 7–13 Mar | Norstat | 1,000 | 30.2 | 13.5 | 14.9 | 17.5 | 9.2 | 8.6 | — | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 13.0 | 56.9 | 43.1 |
| 5 March | 2023 election | N/A | 31.2 | 16.1 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 15.1 | 53.8 | 46.2 |
| 37 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 60 | 41 | |||
References
- ERR (2023-04-17). "Reformierakonna, Eesti 200 ja Sotsiaaldemokraatide valitsus astus ametisse". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2023-04-17.
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